scholarly journals NUMERICAL-ANALYSIS-AIDED PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD EVALUATION USING RESPONSE SURFACE

Author(s):  
Takuma KOTANI ◽  
Shinsuke TAKASE ◽  
Shuji MORIGUCHI ◽  
Kenjiro TERADA ◽  
Yo FUKUTANI ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Fuentes Serrano ◽  
Sebastián Riquelme Muñoz ◽  
Miguel Medina ◽  
Matias Mocanu ◽  
Rodrigo Filippi Fernandez

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Grezio ◽  
P. Gasparini ◽  
W. Marzocchi ◽  
A. Patera ◽  
S. Tinti

Abstract. We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.


2011 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Ranga Rao ◽  
N. T. Reddy ◽  
J. Sriganesh ◽  
M. V. Ramana Murthy ◽  
Tad S. Murty

Author(s):  
Tohru Nakanishi ◽  
Keishi Okamoto ◽  
Koji Koyamada ◽  
Hidetoshi Kotera

For the thermal management of the electric products, the compact modeling method is commonly applied to the numerical analysis with the simplification of the each component used in the products, on the view point of the best thermal design. In the generation of the compact modeling, the method that the model parameters are optimized toward to the fitness between the temperature value of numerical analysis result and the actual hardware testing data, is conventionally used, with some monitored points which are given in advance. In this parameter optimization, the fitness function is to be 1 on the no (0) temperature difference between them at all monitored locations, and on the other hand, that is to be 0 if the temperature difference between them is infinite. However, it was found that this conventional method brought the fitness function shape of one sharp mountain, as the analysis result, and the method, that represented the fitness function with the quadratic polynomial, caused the important problem on the view point of the analysis quality if the Response Surface Method is used of the parameter optimization. Therefore in this research to resolve this problem, we suggest the method that the response surfaces, which are based on the heat conduction law, are composed for each monitored location, and the fitness function is given with these surfaces. This method is applied into some compact modeling and the benefit is verified. The meanwhile of the temperature difference between the numerical analysis result and the solution field is decreased half, and the divergence makes one-tenth decrease.


2017 ◽  
Vol 93 (S1) ◽  
pp. 127-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panon Latcharote ◽  
Khaled Al-Salem ◽  
Anawat Suppasri ◽  
Tanuspong Pokavanich ◽  
Shinji Toda ◽  
...  

Geomorphology ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 268 ◽  
pp. 197-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Débora Beigt ◽  
Gustavo Villarosa ◽  
Eduardo A. Gómez ◽  
Carolina Manzoni

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amos Salamon ◽  
Eran Frucht ◽  
Steven N. Ward ◽  
Erez Gal ◽  
Marina Grigorovitch ◽  
...  

Unique geological and seismotectonic settings may trigger a multicascading hazard and should be identified beforehand. Such is the head of the Gulf of Elat–Aqaba (HGEA) at the northeastern end of the Red Sea where its geology, tectonics, bathymetry, and earthquake and tsunami history exhibit clear potential for earthquake and submarine-landslide tsunami generation. We thus investigated the possible tsunamigenic sources in the gulf and evaluated the resulting hazard at the HGEA. First, we assembled a bathymetric grid and adopted GeoClaw software to simulate most of the earthquake-tsunami scenarios. Next, we resolved the scheme of the largest possible tsunamigenic earthquakes along the deep basins of the Gulf of Elat (GEA) and the associated Dead Sea rift valley, as well as the potential tsunamigenic submarine landslides in the HGEA. The use of GeoClaw was verified against the 1995 tsunami generated by the Nuweiba Mw 7.2 earthquake, and then operated to simulate a suite of earthquake scenarios. Results showed that the marginal faults of Elat Basin pose the highest tsunami hazard to the Israeli part of the HGEA. To better assess that hazard, we screened the geology and seismotectonics of the HGEA and found that the Elat normal fault presents the worst-case scenario for Elat city. It is capable of generating a multicascading threat of earthquake and submarine-landslide tsunami, local subsidence that can increase inundation, and above all, destructive ground motion. Scenarios of a tsunami caused by the worst-case earthquake on the Elat fault simulated by GeoClaw and Ward’s (Tsunami, The encyclopedia of solid earth geophysics. 2011, 1473–1493) approach, and submarine landslide in the HGEA simulated by Wang et al.’s (Geophys. J. Int., 2015, 201, 1534–1544) ‘Tsunami Squares’ approach, demonstrated waves as high as 4 m along these coasts. Accordingly, we constructed a map of the evacuation zone. We also show that strong ground-shaking and retreat of the sea at the HGEA should be considered a tsunami warning, although false alarms are inevitable. Furthermore, tsunami hazard exists all along the gulf and further assessments are needed to quantify this hazard and increase awareness among the area's population.


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