scholarly journals Tsunami Hazard Evaluation for the Head of the Gulf of Elat–Aqaba, Northeastern Red Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amos Salamon ◽  
Eran Frucht ◽  
Steven N. Ward ◽  
Erez Gal ◽  
Marina Grigorovitch ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Red Sea ◽  
Submarine Landslide ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Submarine Landslides ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
Landslide Tsunami

Unique geological and seismotectonic settings may trigger a multicascading hazard and should be identified beforehand. Such is the head of the Gulf of Elat–Aqaba (HGEA) at the northeastern end of the Red Sea where its geology, tectonics, bathymetry, and earthquake and tsunami history exhibit clear potential for earthquake and submarine-landslide tsunami generation. We thus investigated the possible tsunamigenic sources in the gulf and evaluated the resulting hazard at the HGEA. First, we assembled a bathymetric grid and adopted GeoClaw software to simulate most of the earthquake-tsunami scenarios. Next, we resolved the scheme of the largest possible tsunamigenic earthquakes along the deep basins of the Gulf of Elat (GEA) and the associated Dead Sea rift valley, as well as the potential tsunamigenic submarine landslides in the HGEA. The use of GeoClaw was verified against the 1995 tsunami generated by the Nuweiba Mw 7.2 earthquake, and then operated to simulate a suite of earthquake scenarios. Results showed that the marginal faults of Elat Basin pose the highest tsunami hazard to the Israeli part of the HGEA. To better assess that hazard, we screened the geology and seismotectonics of the HGEA and found that the Elat normal fault presents the worst-case scenario for Elat city. It is capable of generating a multicascading threat of earthquake and submarine-landslide tsunami, local subsidence that can increase inundation, and above all, destructive ground motion. Scenarios of a tsunami caused by the worst-case earthquake on the Elat fault simulated by GeoClaw and Ward’s (Tsunami, The encyclopedia of solid earth geophysics. 2011, 1473–1493) approach, and submarine landslide in the HGEA simulated by Wang et al.’s (Geophys. J. Int., 2015, 201, 1534–1544) ‘Tsunami Squares’ approach, demonstrated waves as high as 4 m along these coasts. Accordingly, we constructed a map of the evacuation zone. We also show that strong ground-shaking and retreat of the sea at the HGEA should be considered a tsunami warning, although false alarms are inevitable. Furthermore, tsunami hazard exists all along the gulf and further assessments are needed to quantify this hazard and increase awareness among the area's population.

Submarine Landslides and Their Tsunami Hazard

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Tappin
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Submarine Landslide ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Submarine Landslides ◽  
Critical Importance ◽  
Grand Banks ◽  
Landslide Mechanisms ◽  
Landslide Tsunamis

Most tsunamis are generated by earthquakes, but in 1998, a seabed slump offshore of northern Papua New Guinea (PNG) generated a tsunami up to 15 m high that killed more than 2,200 people. The event changed our understanding of tsunami mechanisms and was forerunner to two decades of major tsunamis that included those in Turkey, the Indian Ocean, Japan, and Sulawesi and Anak Krakatau in Indonesia. PNG provided a context to better understand these tsunamis as well as older submarine landslide events, such as Storegga (8150 BP); Alika 2 in Hawaii (120,000 BP), and Grand Banks, Canada (1929), together with those from dual earthquake/landslide mechanisms, such as Messina (1908), Puerto Rico (1928), and Japan (2011). PNG proved that submarine landslides generate devastating tsunamis from failure mechanisms that can be very different, whether singly or in combination with earthquakes. It demonstrated the critical importance of seabed mapping to identify these mechanisms as well as stimulated the development of new numerical tsunami modeling methodologies. In combination with other recent tsunamis, PNG demonstrated the critical importance of these events in advancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk. This review recounts how, since 1998, understanding of the tsunami hazard from submarine landslides has progressed far beyond anything considered possible at that time. ▪ For submarine landslide tsunamis, advances in understanding take place incrementally, usually in response to major, sometimes catastrophic, events. ▪ The Papua New Guinea tsunami in 1998, when more than 2,200 people perished, was a turning point in first recognizing the significant tsunami hazard from submarine landslides. ▪ Over the past 2 to 3 years advances have also been made mainly because of improvements in numerical modeling based on older tsunamis such as Grand Banks in 1929, Messina in 1908, and Storegga at 8150 BP. ▪ Two recent tsunamis in late 2018, in Sulawesi and Anak Krakatau, Indonesia, where several hundred people died, were from very unusual landslide mechanisms—dual (strike-slip and landslide) and volcanic collapse—and provide new motivations for understanding these tsunami mechanisms. ▪ This is a timely, state of the art review of landslide tsunamis based on recent well-studied events and new research on older ones, which provide an important context for the recent tsunamis in Indonesia in 2018. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Volume 49 is May 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

scholarly journals Tsunamis from prospected mass failure on the Marsili submarine volcano flanks and hints for tsunami hazard evaluation

2020 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Gallotti ◽  
F. Zaniboni ◽  
G. Pagnoni ◽  
C. Romagnoli ◽  
F. Gamberi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Hydrothermal Activity ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Tyrrhenian Sea ◽  
Submarine Volcano ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Mass Failure

AbstractThe Marsili Seamount (Tyrrhenian Sea, Italy) is the largest submarine volcano in the Mediterranean Sea, located in the middle of the Marsili Basin, facing the Calabrian and Sicilian coasts on its eastern side, and the coasts of Sardinia on the opposite side. It has erupted in historical times, and its summit crest is affected by widespread hydrothermal activity. This study looks at mass failures taking place at different depths on the flanks of the volcano and estimates their associated tsunamigenic potential. Mass failure, tsunami generation, and propagation have been simulated by means of numerical models developed by the Tsunami Research Team of the University of Bologna. In all, we consider five cases. Of these, three scenarios, one regarding a very small detachment and two medium-sized ones (between 2 and 3 km3 failure volume), have been suggested as possible failure occurrences in the published literature on a morphological basis and involve the north-eastern and north-western sectors of the volcano. The two additional cases, one medium-sized and one extreme, intended as a possible worst-case scenario (volume 17.6 km3), affecting the eastern flank. Results indicate that small-volume failures are not able to produce significant tsunamis; medium-size failures can produce tsunamis which dangerously affect the coasts if their detachment occurs in shallow water, i.e., involves the volcano crest; and extreme volume failures have the potential to create disastrous tsunamis. In all the simulations, tsunami waves appear to reach the Aeolian Islands in around 10 min and the coasts of Calabria and Sicily in 20 min. This study highlights that there is a potential for dangerous tsunamis generation from collapses of the Marsili volcano and as a consequence a need to intensify research on its status and stability conditions. More broadly, this investigation should also be extended to the other volcanic seamounts of the Tyrrhenian Sea, since their eruptive style, evolution, and tsunamigenic potential are still poorly known.

scholarly journals Tsunami hazard assessment in the coastal area of Rabat and Salé, Morocco

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2181-2191 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Renou ◽  
O. Lesne ◽  
A. Mangin ◽  
F. Rouffi ◽  
A. Atillah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Models ◽  
Companion Paper ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Building Vulnerability ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Large Populations ◽  
Damage Maps ◽  
Moroccan Coast

Abstract. In the framework of the three-year SCHEMA European project (www.schemaproject.org), we present a generic methodology developed to produce tsunami building vulnerability and impact maps. We apply this methodology to the Moroccan coast. This study focuses on the Bouregreg Valley which is at the junction between Rabat (administrative capital), and Salé. Both present large populations and new infrastructure development. Using a combination of numerical modelling, field surveys, Earth Observation and GIS data, the risk has been evaluated for this vulnerable area. Two tsunami scenarios were studied to estimate a realistic range of hazards on this coast: a worst-case scenario based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and a moderate scenario based on the Horseshoe earthquake of 28 February 1969. For each scenario, numerical models allowed the production of tsunami hazard maps (maximum inundation extent and maximum inundation depths). Moreover, the modelling results of these two scenarios were compared with the historical data available. A companion paper to this article (Atillah et al., 2011) presents the following steps of the methodology, namely the elaboration of building damage maps by crossing layers of building vulnerability and the so-inferred inundation depths.

A probabilistic approach for determining submarine landslide tsunami hazard along the upper east coast of the United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 264 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 74-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan T. Grilli ◽  
Oliver-Denzil S. Taylor ◽  
Christopher D.P. Baxter ◽  
Stefan Maretzki
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
The United States ◽  
Submarine Landslide ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Landslide Tsunami

scholarly journals Tsunami hazard potential for the equatorial southwestern Pacific atolls of Tokelau from scenario-based simulations

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 1239-1257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan R. Orpin ◽  
Graham J. Rickard ◽  
Peter K. Gerring ◽  
Geoffroy Lamarche
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Islands ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Basic Field ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Flood Depth ◽  
The North

Abstract. Devastating tsunami over the last decade have significantly heightened awareness of the potential consequences and vulnerability of low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions. Our appraisal of the potential tsunami hazard for the atolls of the Tokelau Islands is based on a tsunami source–propagation–inundation model using Gerris Flow Solver, adapted from the companion study by Lamarche et al. (2015) for the islands of Wallis and Futuna. We assess whether there is potential for tsunami flooding on any of the village islets from a selection of 14 earthquake-source experiments. These earthquake sources are primarily based on the largest Pacific earthquakes of Mw  ≥  8.1 since 1950 and other large credible sources of tsunami that may impact Tokelau. Earthquake-source location and moment magnitude are related to tsunami-wave amplitudes and tsunami flood depths simulated for each of the three atolls of Tokelau. This approach yields instructive results for a community advisory but is not intended to be fully deterministic. Rather, the underlying aim is to identify credible sources that present the greatest potential to trigger an emergency response. Results from our modelling show that wave fields are channelled by the bathymetry of the Pacific basin in such a way that the swathes of the highest waves sweep immediately northeast of the Tokelau Islands. Our limited simulations suggest that trans-Pacific tsunami from distant earthquake sources to the north of Tokelau pose the most significant inundation threat. In particular, our assumed worst-case scenario for the Kuril Trench generated maximum modelled-wave amplitudes in excess of 1 m, which may last a few hours and include several wave trains. Other sources can impact specific sectors of the atolls, particularly distant earthquakes from Chile and Peru, and regional earthquake sources to the south. Flooding is dependent on the wave orientation and direct alignment to the incoming tsunami. Our "worst-case" tsunami simulations of the Tokelau Islands suggest that dry areas remain around the villages, which are typically built on a high islet. Consistent with the oral history of little or no perceived tsunami threat, simulations from the recent Tohoku and Chile earthquake sources suggest only limited flooding around low-lying islets of the atoll. Where potential tsunami flooding is inferred from the modelling, recommended minimum evacuation heights above local sea level are compiled, with particular attention paid to variations in tsunami flood depth around the atolls, subdivided into directional quadrants around each atoll. However, complex wave behaviours around the atolls, islets, tidal channels and within the lagoons are also observed in our simulations. Wave amplitudes within the lagoons may exceed 50 cm, increasing any inundation and potential hazards on the inner shoreline of the atolls, which in turn may influence evacuation strategies. Our study shows that indicative simulation studies can be achieved even with only basic field information. In part, this is due to the spatially and vertically limited topography of the atoll, short reef flat and steep seaward bathymetry, and the simple depth profile of the lagoon bathymetry.

scholarly journals Landslide tsunami hazard in the Indonesian Sunda Arc

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 589-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brune ◽  
A. Y. Babeyko ◽  
S. Ladage ◽  
S. V. Sobolev
Keyword(s):  
Geophysical Methods ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Mass Movements ◽  
Submarine Landslides ◽  
Bottom Pressure ◽  
Indonesian Archipelago ◽  
Catastrophic Earthquake ◽  
Sunda Arc ◽  
Landslide Tsunami ◽  
Tsunami Scenarios

Abstract. The Indonesian archipelago is known for the occurrence of catastrophic earthquake-generated tsunamis along the Sunda Arc. The tsunami hazard associated with submarine landslides however has not been fully addressed. In this paper, we compile the known tsunamigenic events where landslide involvement is certain and summarize the properties of published landslides that were identified with geophysical methods. We depict novel mass movements, found in newly available bathymetry, and determine their key parameters. Using numerical modeling, we compute possible tsunami scenarios. Furthermore, we propose a way of identifying landslide tsunamis using an array of few buoys with bottom pressure units.

scholarly journals Tsunami scenario triggered by submarine landslide offshore of northern Sumatra Island and its hazard assessment

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haekal Azief Haridhi ◽  
Bor-Shouh Huang ◽  
Kuo-Liang Wen ◽  
Arif Mirza ◽  
Syamsul Rizal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fault Zone ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Submarine Landslide ◽  
Tsunami Hazard ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Submarine Landslides ◽  
Northern Border ◽  
Sumatran Fault

Abstract. Near the northern border of Sumatra, the right-lateral strike-slip Sumatran Fault Zone splits into two branches and extends into the offshore, as revealed by seismic sounding surveys. However, due to its strike-slip faulting characteristics, the Sumatran Fault Zone’s activity is rarely believed to cause tsunami hazards in this region. According to two reprocessed reflection seismic profiles, the extended Sumatran Fault Zone is strongly associated with chaotic facies, indicating that large submarine landslides have been triggered. Coastal steep slopes and new subsurface characteristics of submarine landslide deposits were mapped using recently acquired high-resolution shallow bathymetry data. Slope stability analysis revealed some targets with steep morphology to be close to failure. In an extreme case, an earthquake of Mw 7 or more occurred, and the strong ground shaking triggered a submarine landslide off the northern shore of Sumatra. Based on a simulation of tsunami wave propagation in shallow water, the results of this study indicate a potential tsunami hazard from a submarine landslide triggered by the strike-slip fault system. The landslide tsunami hazard assessment and early warning systems in this study area can be improved on the basis of this proposed scenario.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
D. V. Vaniukova ◽  
◽  
P. A. Kutsenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Murder ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Traditional Art ◽  
Peter The Great ◽  
State Museum ◽  
Bobo Dioulasso ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

Risk-Based Robust Bidding Strategies for EVs’ Aggregators in Day-ahead Markets with Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelmoaty ◽  
Wessam Mesbah ◽  
Mohammad A. M. Abdel-Aal ◽  
Ali T. Alawami
Keyword(s):  
Robust Optimization ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Bidding Strategies ◽  
Wind Generators ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Optimal Bidding

In the recent electricity market framework, the profit of the generation companies depends on the decision of the operator on the schedule of its units, the energy price, and the optimal bidding strategies. Due to the expanded integration of uncertain renewable generators which is highly intermittent such as wind plants, the coordination with other facilities to mitigate the risks of imbalances is mandatory. Accordingly, coordination of wind generators with the evolutionary Electric Vehicles (EVs) is expected to boost the performance of the grid. In this paper, we propose a robust optimization approach for the coordination between the wind-thermal generators and the EVs in a virtual<br>power plant (VPP) environment. The objective of maximizing the profit of the VPP Operator (VPPO) is studied. The optimal bidding strategy of the VPPO in the day-ahead market under uncertainties of wind power, energy<br>prices, imbalance prices, and demand is obtained for the worst case scenario. A case study is conducted to assess the e?effectiveness of the proposed model in terms of the VPPO's profit. A comparison between the proposed model and the scenario-based optimization was introduced. Our results confirmed that, although the conservative behavior of the worst-case robust optimization model, it helps the decision maker from the fluctuations of the uncertain parameters involved in the production and bidding processes. In addition, robust optimization is a more tractable problem and does not suffer from<br>the high computation burden associated with scenario-based stochastic programming. This makes it more practical for real-life scenarios.<br>

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