ESTIMATION OF STORM SURGE LOSS ALONG THE TOKYO BAY COAST BY STOCHASTIC APPROACH

In recent years, refinement of stochastic storm surge estimation is essential for risk management in insurance industries because the Japanese government promotes flood risk transfer to insurance companies. Insurance systems may reach peak risk when storm surge damage occurs; however, there are only a few studies on the stochastic analysis of storm surges. This paper presents the stochastic evaluation of storm surges in Tokyo Bay. First, storm surges are assessed using two methods of an empirical formula and a numerical model. Then, the return period of storm surges is stochastically evaluated. It is found that an empirical formula underestimates the surge level in comparison to the numerical model. Based on the results of numerical model, the return period of a storm surge is proposed in Tokyo Bay.

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Typhoon parameter sensitivity of storm surge in the semi-enclosed Tokyo Bay

10.1002/essoar.10502574.1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Md Rezuanul Islam ◽

Hiroshi Takagi

Keyword(s):

Storm Surge ◽

Parameter Sensitivity ◽

Tokyo Bay

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PROJECTION OF FUTURE STORM SURGE DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS UNCERTAINTY – A CASE STUDY IN THE TOKYO BAY

Asian And Pacific Coasts 2011 ◽

10.1142/9789814366489_0042 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 369-376

Author(s):

TOMOHIRO YASUDA ◽

NOBUHITO MORI ◽

SOTA NAKAJO ◽

HAJIME MASE ◽

YUTA HAYASHI ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Tokyo Bay

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APPLICABILITY OF THE VERTICAL TELESCOPIC BREAKWATER USING THE PAST TYPHOON IN TOKYO BAY

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v36v.structures.35 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 35

Author(s):

Yako Harada ◽

Yukihisa Matsumoto ◽

Kazuho Morishita ◽

Nobuyuki Oonishi ◽

Kazuyoshi Kihara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Numerical Calculations ◽

Numerical Analyses ◽

Tokyo Bay ◽

Worst Case ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Long Period ◽

The Past

The vertical telescopic breakwater(VTB), which is a new breakwater that permits the navigation of ships, remain at the bottom of the sea during calm and rise to the surface during tsunamis or storm surges. Kawai et al. (2017) and Arikawa et al. (2019) found that it is effective not only for swell waves, but also for long-period waves simulating tsunamis and storm surges by previous experiments and numerical analyses. However, there have been few studies on the performance of VTB by numerical calculations in actual ports using actual typhoons. In addition, sea levels and changes in characteristics of typhoon due to climate change are predicted to occur; hence, we are concerned about the damage in all quarters caused by storm surge inundation, especially at Tokyo. Therefore, in this study, we used hypothetical typhoons under worst-case scenarios and quantitatively evaluated the protection performance of VTB against hypothetical typhoons with different aperture rates of VTB in Tokyo Bay by the numerical simulation.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/qof5ixKqIiA

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SENSITIVITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK TO ASSESSMENT OF SEVERE STORM SURGE EVENT AT TOKYO BAY

Coastal Engineering Proceedings ◽

10.9753/icce.v36.papers.5 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 5 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Sota Nakajo ◽

Hideyuki Fujiki ◽

Sooyoul Kim ◽

Nobuhito Mori

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Storm Surge ◽

Wave Equations ◽

Tokyo Bay ◽

Cyclone Track ◽

Tropical Cyclone Track ◽

Translation Speed ◽

Long Wave ◽

Storm Surge Event ◽

Surge Height

In total 82 tropical cyclones data was used to determine scenarios of translation speed, minimum central pressure and track for risk assessment of storm surge at Tokyo Bay. The numerical simulation of waves and flows was conducted by solving non-linear long wave equations. The maximum surge height shows that the typhoon passing through along northeast directional track is dangerous for Tokyo Bay. This trend confirms the previous risk assessment was reasonable. However, it has been shown that the typhoon passing through along north directional track is also dangerous although the frequency is low. Especially, it is interesting that the typhoon passing through along northwest directional track causes distinctive resurgence and harbor oscillation.

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