scholarly journals Predicting the relative performance of actively managed equity mutual funds using diverse performance evaluation techniques

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-83
Author(s):  
Akshay Damani ◽  
Nandip Vaidya
Keyword(s):  
Performance Evaluation ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Relative Performance ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Ex Post

Mutual fund performance evaluation has seen an ever-growing interest for research amongst industry and academicians alike. In this paper an attempt has been made to compare and correlate global actively managed equity mutual funds’ performance across time intervals, to evaluate and establish how predicting future performance can be made meaningful for investors using analysis of historical data based on monthly net asset values (NAVs) (March 2009–March 2021). Of the top 500 global equity mutual funds based on market-cap (on March 31, 2021), the paper evaluated 180 actively managed funds adding up to approximately USD 5 trillion of the fund assets as of March 31, 2021. The research gap which the paper aims to fill is to bring under one umbrella, prediction analysis using performance measures, downside risk measures, style factor analysis, and market timing models. For sampled equity funds various performance ratios and style attributes were computed and compared across periods for their relative performance. Relative performance was found to be stable (at 1% significance level) across periods and hence predictable. A portfolio of funds constructed optimally using historical performance was seen to be in the top quartile ex-post performance in the subsequent period. However, it was found that the market timing abilities of fund managers were unstable across periods and could not be used for predicting performance. Based on the study findings, it would be appropriate for investors to use the relative past performance of the funds and their style attribute analysis for the future allocation of investible surplus across these funds

NEW DEA PERFORMANCE EVALUATION INDICES AND THEIR APPLICATIONS IN THE AMERICAN FUND MARKET

2008 ◽  
Vol 25 (04) ◽  
pp. 421-450 ◽  
Author(s):  
RUIYUE LIN ◽  
ZHIPING CHEN
Keyword(s):  
Performance Evaluation ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Relative Performance ◽  
Programming Approach ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Performance Variation ◽  
Mathematical Programming Approach ◽  
Return Distributions

The data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is a mathematical programming approach to evaluate the relative performance of portfolios. Considering that the risk input indicators of existing DEA performance evaluation indices cannot reflect the pervasive fat tails and asymmetry in return distributions of mutual funds, we originally introduce new risk measures CVaR and VaR into inputs of relevant DEA indices to measure relative performance of portfolios more objectively. To fairly evaluate the performance variation of the same fund during different time periods, we creatively treat them as different decision making units (DMUs). Different from available DEA applications which mainly investigate the American mutual fund performance from the whole market or industry aspect, we analyze in detail the effect of different input/output indicator combinations on the performance of individual funds. Our empirical results show that VaR and CVaR, especially their combinations with traditional risk measures, are very helpful for comprehensively describing return distribution properties such as skewness and leptokurtosis, and can thus better evaluate the overall performance of mutual funds.

scholarly journals MANAGERIAL ABILITIES AND FACTOR INVESTMENT STYLE PERFORMANCES OF MALAYSIAN MUTUAL FUND MANAGERS

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-135
Author(s):  
Pick-Soon Ling ◽  
Ruzita Abdul-Rahim
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Investment Style ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Stock Picking

Background and Purpose: Studies focusing on mutual fund managerial abilities and investment style strategies are still scarce in the literature. Thus, this study aims to provide new evidence and insights into the managerial abilities and investment style performances of Malaysian fund managers.   Methodology: A total of 444 Malaysian equity mutual funds (EMFs) were evaluated using Carhart’s model incorporated with Treynor-Mazuy (T-M) and Henriksson-Merton (H-M) market timing models for the study period, from January 1995 to December 2017.   Findings: Fund managers displayed superior stock selection skills with 32 percent and 43 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively, with perverse market timing ability which accounted for 39 percent and 42 percent of funds for T-M and H-M respectively. Perverse timing ability had reduced the superior stock-picking skills of fund managers. This suggests that the EMFs performance could further improve if respective fund managers perform better in market timing ability. The finding also indicates that size effect (SMB) and value effect (HML) play significant roles in investment style strategies, while results of momentum factor (WML) propose that Malaysian fund managers have followed the contrarian strategy.   Contributions: This study contributes in several ways especially in the literature of portfolio management as the evidence is obtained from the largest mutual funds sample size and the longest study period. Moreover, this study also used the highest frequency data to study the effects of market timing which were overlooked in previous studies.   Keywords: Adjusted carhart, Malaysian market, market timing, mutual fund, stock selection.   Cite as: Ling, P-S., & Abdul-Rahim, R. (2021). Managerial abilities and factor investment style performances of Malaysian mutual funds.  Journal of Nusantara Studies, 6(1), 118-135. http://dx.doi.org/10.24200/jonus.vol6iss1pp118-135

scholarly journals Portfolio Managers on the Colombian Open-End Mutual Fund Industry: Performance, downside risk and persistence

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (59) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fredy Alexander Pulga Vivas ◽  
María Teresa Macías Joven
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Downside Risk ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Investment Trusts ◽  
Bond Funds ◽  
Equity Funds

This study explores whether Colombian mutual funds deliver abnormal risk-adjusted returns and delves on their persistence. Through traditional and downside risk measures based on Modern Portfolio Theory and Lower Partial Moments, this article evaluates the performance of 146 mutual funds categorized by investment type and fund manager. This assessment suggests that mutual funds underperform the market and deliver real returns. Similarly, bond funds underperform equity funds, and investment trusts underperform brokerage firms as managers. Furthermore, bond funds and funds managed by investment trusts exhibit short-term performance persistence. These results suggest that investors may pursue passive investment strategies, and that they must analyze past performance to invest in the short-term.

scholarly journals Mutual fund flow-performance dynamics under different market conditions in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 236-249
Author(s):  
Richard Apau ◽  
Paul-Francois Muzindutsi ◽  
Peter Moores-Pitt
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Fund Flows ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Market Conditions ◽  
Fund Flow ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Performance Effects

Questions regarding the specific factors that drive continuous cash allocations by investors into portfolios of actively managed funds, despite consistent underperformance, continue to remain an inexhaustive aspect of the literature that calls for further investigations. This study assesses the dynamic relationship between fund flow and performance of equity mutual funds in South Africa under different market conditions. The study employs a GMM technique to analyze the panel data of 52 South African equity mutual funds from 2006 to 2019. The analysis found that convexity is prevalent in the flow-performance relationship, where fund contributors in subsequent periods allocate recent underperforming and outperforming funds disproportionate cash. This finding is evident in the lack of significance in the past performance effects on subsequent fund flows. The study found that lagged fund flows, fund size, fund risk, and market risk drive subsequent fund flows under changing conditions of the general market and fund markets. Overall, it is posited that fund contributors and asset administrators adapt to prevailing market dynamics relative to trading decisions. As a result, this affirms the normative guidelines of the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, leading to the conclusion that exogenous factors drive fluctuations in fund flows in South Africa.

scholarly journals The Effect of Performance on Israeli Equity Fund Flows

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 272
Author(s):  
Ofer Arbaa ◽  
Eva Varon ◽  
Uri Benzion
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Investor Behavior ◽  
Fund Flows ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
The Us ◽  
Mutual Fund Flows ◽  
Net Flows

This paper examines the influence of past performance on Israeli equity mutual funds' net flows between January 2004 and July 2014, using the most recommended and reliable two-cluster regression methodology. Apparently, Israeli investors are more sensitive to risk adjusted returns than absolute returns and the most recent performance seems to be more influential on fund flows than on longer-term past performance. Moreover, investors flock to the latest winners and do not leave the funds with the poorest performance. The effect of past performance seems to be more salient on flows of advertised funds than of those with no advertisement.  The results in Israel augment the scant work on mutual fund flows outside the US and add support to a growing body of literature documenting irrational investor behavior worldwide. 

scholarly journals PENGARUH STOCK SELESCTION SKIIL, MARKET TIMING ABILITY, TURNOVER RATIO DAN CASH FLOW TERHADAP KINERJA REKSA DANA SYARIAH

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (01) ◽  
pp. 45-55
Author(s):  
Mega Mustika Sari ◽  
Sri Mulyati ◽  
Estu Widarwati
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Research Report ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Turnover Ratio ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
Investment Manager

Mutual funds syariah are other investment opportunities with measurable risk and return is high enough with enough capital affordable to the community. Mutual funds syariah have an Investment Manager with the ability and knowledge of the market it is or will happen. Therefore, mutual funds syariah selected by investors because it is cheap, easy and "managed by the experts". This research analysted do stock selection skill, market timing ability, Turnover ratio and Cashflow can influence the performance of equity mutual funds syariah in Indonesia. The data used in this research are data on financial statements , Net Asset Value (NAV), SBI, IHSG, yearly data and prospectus of 10 equity mutual fund syariah that were sampled during this research report from 2011-2014. As a research methodology, we used F test and t test to examine research’s hypothesis, also used assumption classic test there are normality test, autocorrelation test, heteroscedasticity test and multicolinearity test. These results can be viewed on multiple regression analysis and the coefficient of determination, the R value of 0.513 means the relation between the stock selection skill, market timing ability, Turnover ratio and Cashflow to profitability by 51.3%, meaning that the relationship between variables was most closely. Adjusted R Square value of 0.545 which means 54,5% achievement of profitability can be explained by the stock selection skill, market timing ability, Turnover ratio and Cashflow. The remaining 45,5% can be explained by other factors not examined in this research..

scholarly journals Determinant of Islamic Mutual Fund Performance: A Comparative Study Between Indonesia and Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Mohammad Nur Rianto Al Arif ◽  
Aulia Saifullah
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Fund Performance ◽  
Mutual Fund Performance ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Panel Data Regression ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Equity Funds

<p><em>This study aims to analyze determinant performance of Islamic equity funds and compare the performance of Indonesian Islamic equity funds with Malaysian Islamic equity funds period 2017-2019. Factors that are thought to affect the performance of mutual funds are past performance and inflation. Mutual fund performance itself is measured using the Sharpe Index. This study uses secondary data and the sample is taken using purposive sampling. Methods of data analysis using Panel Data Regression. This study indicates that simultaneously the variables Past Performance and Inflation affect the performance of Islamic equity mutual funds in Indonesia and Malaysia.</em></p><em>Furthermore, it partially shows that Past Performance harms the performance of Islamic equity funds, while inflation positively affects the performance of Islamic equity funds. In addition, this study also shows that there is a significant difference between the performance of Indonesian and Malaysian Islamic equity funds. Malaysian Islamic equity funds were superior to Indonesian Islamic equity funds in 2017-2019.</em>

scholarly journals Performance persistence of mutual funds: evidence from Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1739
Author(s):  
Mohammad Abir Shahid Chowdhury ◽  
Zahid Ali ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
Asad Ullah
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Performance Persistence ◽  
Past Performance ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose: Since 1990s, the discussion on whether mutual funds can perform better and persistently as compare to market has become an ongoing issue. Current research investigates the performance persistence of equity mutual funds’, particularly in the financial market of Bangladesh.Theoretical Framework: Different researchers have strived to examine the performance of mutual funds by using numerous performance indicators and risk adjustment techniques.Design/Methodology/Approach: The equity mutual funds data for this study are obtained from DSE (Dhaka Stock Exchange) database. The sample set includes all open-end mutual funds from 2010 to 2015. There is no mutual fund that has ceased trade or merged with other mutual funds during the study period.Originality/Value: Broad literature have been directed on the performance and persistence of mutual funds in the American markets, while some of the studies also centered on Australia, China, Hong Kong and U.K. financial markets. However, in the context of Bangladesh’s financial market, no identical research has been carried on the performance persistence of mutual funds.Findings: The results reveal that the managers of equity mutual funds have selective ability to obtain higher returns in Bangladesh. Moreover, the past performance of mutual funds has an impact on their future performance. The size of mutual funds doesn’t have any impact on their performance. The parametric and non-parametric models demonstrate that as compare to long run, equity mutual funds in Bangladesh could perform persistently in the short-run.

scholarly journals MUTUAL FUNDS PERFORMANCE EVALUATION BASED ON SELECTIVITY AND MARKET TIMING

IQTISHODUNA ◽  
2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Werner R. Murhadi
Keyword(s):  
Performance Evaluation ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Mutual Fund Managers ◽  
Fund Managers

This paper is an empirical evaluation of the performance of mutual fund managers in terms of “market timing” and “selectivity”, within the framework suggested by Treynor and Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson and Merton (1981). The relevant data set is a balanced panel of 55 (fifty five) mutual funds, over a 17 (seventeen)-month period began from February 2008 until June 2009. The result found that only 4 (four) mutual funds demonstrated a good performance in market timing and 4 (four) mutual funds showed a good performance in stock selection. Both methods have a good indicator to reflect mutual funds performance.

scholarly journals Stock Selectivity Skill, Market Timing Ability, Risiko, Size, and Comparison of Performance Islamic Share Mutual Funds

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Elliv Hidayatul Lailiyah ◽  
Rahmat Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Muslim Population ◽  
Equity Mutual Funds ◽  
Timing Ability ◽  
High Return ◽  
The Right

Indonesia is one of the countries with the largest Muslim population about 87%. The high population of the Muslim in Indonesia should be able to provide great potential in terms of Islamic finance as investment activity, which will certainly contribute positively to the Indonesian economy. Investors will always be interested in investment with high return and low risk. One of the alternative is mutual fund especially sharia equity mutual funds. The choice of the right mutual fund should pay attention to how the performance of the mutual fund. This study examine how performance of sharia equity mutual funds using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen method are affected by stock selectivity skill, market timing ability, risk and size during 2012-2017. The finding of this research are stock selectivity skill,market timing ability, risk and size are significantly positive influence to the performance of sharia equity mutual fund. The influence of stock selectivity skill, market timing ability, risk and size are very strong if measured by treynor method.

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