scholarly journals Investigating Expiration Day Effects in Stock Index Futures in India

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sathya Swaroop Debasish
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Complete Sample ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
Price Distortions ◽  
Return Process

This study attempts to examine whether potential expiration effects exist on the NSE Nifty index by comparing the trading volume and return process at expiration with a comparison group. The period of analysis covers index futures expirations from June 2001 to May 2009. The trading volume and return process on expiration days and during expiration weeks were compared with a set of comparison days and comparison weeks. The current study used the pooled t-test and Wilcoxon rank sum test to investigate whether mean returns, price ranges, and adjusted trading volumes (i.e. time-independent trading volumes) were significantly different at expiration. The procedure as used by Stoll and Whaley (1987) was used to examine if price reversals existed during expiration days and comparison days.The evidence indicates that the trading volume on expiration days and in expiration weeks was significantly larger than on comparison days and during comparison weeks. Further, the results suggest that there were no price distortions on the expiration day or during the expiration week for the complete sample period and the second sub-period. For the first sub-period, however, evidence suggesting that expiration days and weeks experienced higher volatility than normal does exist. No evidence of significantly different mean returns, volatility, or price reversals at expiration was found. This could be due to the longer settlement period in India. However, when the complete sample period was divided into two sub-periods it was found that expiration day (weeks) during the first sub period may have experienced price distortions. The results of this study are crucial to investors, stock exchange officials, and regulators.

Cross-Market Linkages of Taiwan Index Futures Contracts Listed on the Taiwan Futures Exchange and the Singapore Exchange

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 561-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hung-Gay Fung ◽  
Qingfeng "Wilson" Liu ◽  
Gyoungsin "Daniel" Park
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Taiwan Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Linkages ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests

Cointegration tests and ex ante trading rules are applied to study cross-market linkages between the Taiwan Index futures contracts listed on the Singapore Exchange and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization-weighted Stock Index futures contracts listed on the Taiwan Futures Exchange. The exchange rate-adjusted returns of the two futures series do not differ significantly in mean but in variances, and show significant mean-reverting tendencies between them. Our trading strategies are able to generate statistically significant, if economically insignificant, profits, while our Granger causality tests demonstrate that information flows primarily from the Singapore market to the Taiwan market, a result confirming other research.

The Impact of Trading Volumes by Trader Types in the KOSPI200 Futures Market

2003 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Chang Hyeon Yun ◽  
Lee Seong Gu
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Persistent Effect ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
The Impact

In this study we examine the relationships between trader-type-specific trading volumes and the price volatility of the KOSPI200 stock index futures over the period of July 1997 through December 2001. The principal findings of this study are that the changes in trading volumes by foreign investors are positively associated with the return and the volatility of the index futures market. When trading volumes are decomposed into expected and unexpected components, unexpected shocks have more persistent effect on the volatility of the market than expected component. Meanwhile, individuals and domestic commercial investor seem to follow the lead made by foreign investors.

Futures and Forward Prices - Theory and Hungarian Experience

2004 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-174
Author(s):  
M. Radnai
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Relative Difference ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Futures Prices ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Forward Prices ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Hungarian Experience

Researchers have examined the difference between forward and futures prices since the introduction of futures contracts. In this paper we derive the explicit formula for stock-index futures prices under the assumptions of lognormal asset prices, determine the relative difference between futures and forward prices, and test the model for BUX contracts traded on the Budapest Stock Exchange between 1997 and 2002.

scholarly journals Futures Price and Trading Volume: Evidence From Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakri Abdul Karim ◽  
Zulkefly Abdul Karim
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Futures Price

This paper examines the long- and short-run dynamic causality between the futures price and trading volume in the Malaysian equity market. The data of futures price, trading volume and spot price are in daily frequency, spanning from 2006 to 2009. By using ARDL cointegration and VECM causality tests, the findings revealed the existence of long-run relationship between futures price, volume and spot prices. In addition, there exists a short-run bidirectional causality relationship running between futures return-trading volume and futures return-spot return. Thus, the stock index futures market in Malaysia is not informational efficient.  

scholarly journals Asymmetric Volatility Effects in Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis using a Stock Index Futures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guillermo Benavides
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Minimum Capital ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

In this research paper ARCH-type models and option implied volatilities (IV) are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a stock index futures portfolio for several time horizons. The relevance of the asymmetries in the estimated volatility estimation is considered. The empirical analysis is performed on futures contracts of both the Standard and Poors 500 Index and the Mexican Stock Exchange. According to the results, the IV model is superior in terms of precision compared to the ARCH-type models. Under both methodologies there are relevant statistical gains when asymmetries are included. The referred gains range from 4 to around 150 basis points of minimum capital risk requirements. This research documents the importance of taking asymmetric effects (leverage effects) into account in volatility forecasts when it comes to risk management analysis.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Volatility Relevance in Risk Management: An Empirical Analysis using Stock Index Futures

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (TNEA) ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Guillermo Benavides
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Minimum Capital

The objective of this research work is to show the relevance of asymmetries in estimating volatility. The methodology consists in the application of ARCH-type models and implied volatilities of options (IV) to estimate Value-at-Risk (VaR). These for a portfolio of stock index futures for various time horizons. The empirical analysis is carried out for the futures contracts for the Standard and Poors 500 and Mexican Stock Exchange Indices. According to the results, the IV model is superior in terms of precision compared to the ARCH-type models. It is recommended to use the relevant statistical gains when asymmetries are included with respect to when asymmetries are not used. The referred gains range from 4 to 150 basis points of minimum capital risk requirements. The originality of the present work consists of showing the importance of considering the asymmetric effects with IV and ARCH-type models in volatility forecasts within risk management analysis. It is concluded that the methodology means gains in monetary terms.

scholarly journals Trading Activity and Price Behavior in the Stock and Stock Index Futures Markets in October 1987

1988 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 25-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
James F Gammill ◽  
Terry A Marsh
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Trading Activity ◽  
Market Mechanisms ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Futures Contract ◽  
Starting Point

This paper discusses what actually happened during the October 1987 market break and the days immediately before. It attempts to lay out a set of stylized facts that describe differing categories of traders and how they behaved and reacted to each other during those days. We believe that this description of what actually happened provides a necessary starting point for financial economists interested in explaining the stock market break. Our discussion here will rely heavily on the report of the Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms, created by Ronald Reagan to investigate these events, as well as on the reports of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. [Both authors were staff members with the Presidential Task Force on Market Mechanisms.] We focus on trading activity on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and on the S&P 500 stock index futures contract traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

Analysis of the Association for Shanghai Composite Index and Stock Index Futures

2014 ◽  
Vol 644-650 ◽  
pp. 5672-5675
Author(s):  
Rui Zhong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Equal Opportunity ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Securities Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Futures Contracts ◽  
Stock Index Futures ◽  
Index Futures ◽  
Stock Traders

In this paper, data mining association rules algorithms and techniques for relevance Shanghai CSI 300 Shanghai Financial Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Stock Index Futures Stock Exchange Composite Index were analyzed. The results show that the futures contracts and price movements highly positive correlation exists. The author believes that between the two since it is highly positive relationship, IF way of trading and settlement transactions should be fully consistent with the way the Shanghai Stock Exchange and deliver company's stock. Thus, equal opportunity traders in futures contracts and stock traders, more conducive to the development of China's securities market.

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