scholarly journals Stock Market Volatility Using GARCH Models: Evidence from South Africa and China Stock Markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (6(J)) ◽  
pp. 237-245
Author(s):  
Priviledge Cheteni
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Arch Effect ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
High Volatility

Abstract: This study looks into the relationship between stock returns and volatility in South Africa and China stock markets. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is used to estimate volatility of the stock returns, namely, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange FTSE/JSE Albi index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. The sample period is from January 1998 to October 2014. Empirical results show evidence of high volatility in both the JSE market, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that volatility is persistent in both exchange markets and resembles the same movement in returns. Consistent with most stock return studies, we find that movements of both markets seem to take a similar trajectory.Keywords: GARCH, ARCH effect, JSE index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index

Investigating the low-risk anomaly in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yudhvir Seetharam
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Finance Theory

PurposeRecent studies have shown that low-volatility shares outperform high-volatility shares. Given the conventional finance theory that risk drives return, this study aims to investigate and attempt to explain the presence of the low-risk anomaly (LRA) in South Africa.Design/methodology/approachUsing share prices from 1990 to 2016, various buy-and-hold strategies are constructed to determine the return to an investor attempting to capitalise on such an anomaly. These strategies involve combinations relating to a price filter, the calculation of risk and volatility, value-weighting or equal-weighting of portfolios and the window period to construct said portfolios.FindingsIt was found that the LRA exists on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE_=) when using univariate sorts, without controlling for the size or value effect. When using multivariate portfolio sorts (size and volatility or value and volatility), it was found that the LRA does not exist on the JSE under the majority of risk proxies, but particularly prevalent when downside risk is used. This loosely points towards a potential “inverse momentum” effect where low-return portfolios outperform their counterparts.Originality/valueIn general, it is established that the risk–return relationship is non-linear and deterministic under traditional proxies, but improves to being somewhat, but not completely, linear under a Kalman filter. The Kalman filter, which can be considered a proxy for learning, does not remove the anomaly in its entirety, indicating that behavioural approaches are needed to explain such phenomena.

scholarly journals CHINA’S MARKET AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC FACTORS

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 58-61
Author(s):  
Mária Bohdalová ◽  
Michal Greguš
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Chinese Market

The aim of this paper is to analyze the causal relation between the Chinese stock market and the US market. We investigate the dependence structures between two Chinese stock markets (Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP) and Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSCEI) markets) and global economic factors such as SP 500 stock markets, volatility index VIX, crude oil and gold. We have used data based on a period from January 2000 to June 2017. The aim of this paper is to explore the causal link between the Chinese market and global economic factors. We have discovered asymmetric causal relations between stock returns and global risk factors based on a quantile regression.

scholarly journals Information-Theoretic Measures and Modeling Stock Market Volatility: A Comparative Approach

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sheraz ◽  
Imran Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Approximate Entropy ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Comparative Approach ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Information Theoretic ◽  
Information Theoretic Measures ◽  
Garch Modeling

The volatility analysis of stock returns data is paramount in financial studies. We investigate the dynamics of volatility and randomness of the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX-100) and obtain insights into the behavior of investors during and before the coronavirus disease (COVID-19 pandemic). The paper aims to present the volatility estimations and quantification of the randomness of PSX-100. The methodology includes two approaches: (i) the implementation of EGARCH, GJR-GARCH, and TGARCH models to estimate the volatilities; and (ii) analysis of randomness in volatilities series, return series, and PSX-100 closing prices for pre-pandemic and pandemic period by using Shannon’s, Tsallis, approximate and sample entropies. Volatility modeling suggests the existence of the leverage effect in both the underlying periods of study. The results obtained using GARCH modeling reveal that the stock market volatility has increased during the pandemic period. However, information-theoretic results based on Shannon and Tsallis entropies do not suggest notable variation in the estimated volatilities series and closing prices. We have examined regularity and randomness based on the approximate entropy and sample entropy. We have noticed both entropies are extremely sensitive to choices of the parameters.

RESPONSE OF STOCK MARKET DURING COVID-19 AND 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: A COMPARATIVE EVIDENCE FROM BRICS NATIONS

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
SANJEEV KUMAR ◽  
JASPREET KAUR ◽  
MOSAB I. TABASH ◽  
DANG K. TRAN ◽  
RAJ S DHANKAR
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This study attempts to examine the response of stock markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic on prominent stock markets of the BRICS nation and compare it with the 2008 financial crisis by employing the GARCH and EGARCH model. First, average and variance of stock returns are tested for differences before and after the pandemic, t-test and F-test were applied. Further, OLS regression was applied to study the impact of COVID-19 on the standard deviation of returns using daily data of total cases, total deaths, and returns of the indices from the date on which the first case was reported till June 2020. Second, GARCH and EGARCH models are employed to compare the impact of COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crisis on the stock market volatility by using the data of respective stock indices for the period 2005–2020. The results suggest that the increasing number of COVID-19 cases and reported death cases hurt stock markets of the five countries except for South Africa in the latter case. The findings of the GARCH and EGARCH model indicate that for India and Russia, the financial crisis of 2008 has caused more stock volatility whereas stock markets of China, Brazil, and South Africa have been more volatile during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study has practical implications for investors, portfolio managers, institutional investors, regulatory institutions, and policymakers as it provides an understanding of stock market behavior in response to a major global crisis and helps them in taking decisions considering the risk of these events.

scholarly journals Margin requirements and Stock Market Volatility in Bangladesh

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
A. F. M. Mainul Ahsan ◽  
Mohammad Osman Gani ◽  
Md. Bokhtiar Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Margin Requirements ◽  
Margin Requirement ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
The Impact

Officially margin requirements in bourses in Bangladesh were initiated on April 28, 1999, to limit the amount of credit available for the purpose of buying stocks. The goal of this paper is to measure the impact of changing margin requirement on stock returns' volatility in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). The impact of margin requirement on stock price volatility has been extensively studied with mixed and ambiguous results. Using daily stock returns, we found mixed evidence that SEC's margin requirements have significant impact on market volatility in DSE.

scholarly journals Financial contagion: The impact of the volatility of global stock exchanges on the Lima-Peru Stock Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-27
Author(s):  
Pedro Pablo Chambi Condori
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Financial Contagion ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Important Indicator ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Impact

What happens in the international financial markets in terms of volatility, have an impact on the results of the local stock market financial markets, as a result of the spread and transmission of larger stock market volatility to smaller markets such as the Peruvian, assertion that goes in accordance with the results obtained in the study in reference. The statistical evaluation of econometric models, suggest that the model obtained can be used for forecasting volatility expected in the very short term, very important estimates for agents involved, because these models can contribute to properly align the attitude to be adopted in certain circumstances of high volatility, for example in the input, output, refuge or permanence in the markets and also in the selection of best steps and in the structuring of the portfolio of investment with equity and additionally you can view through the correlation on which markets is can or not act and consequently the best results of profitability in the equity markets. This work comprises four well-defined sections; a brief history of the financial volatility of the last 15 years, a tight summary of the background and a dense summary of the methodology used in the process of the study, exposure of the results obtained and the declaration of the main conclusions which led us mention research, which allows writing, evidence of transmission and spread of the larger stock markets toward the Peruvian stock market volatility, as in the case of the American market to the market Peruvian stock market with the coefficient of dynamic correlation of 0.32, followed by the Spanish market and the market of China. Additionally, the coefficient of interrelation found by means of the model dcc mgarch is a very important indicator in the structure of portfolios of investment with instruments that they quote on the financial global markets.

scholarly journals Value creation measures: an industry-based study

2018 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 426-444
Author(s):  
John Henry Hall
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Value Creation ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Shareholder Value ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Value Drivers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Return On Capital ◽  
Market Value Added

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify the shareholder value creation measure best suited to express shareholder value creation for a particular industry. Design/methodology/approach The analysis was performed on 192 companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, classified into nine different samples or industries. Five shareholder value creation measures were examined, namely market value added (MVA), a market-adjusted stock return, the market-to-book ratio, Tobin’s Q ratio, and the return on capital employed divided by the cost of equity. Findings An analysis of the nine categories of firms led to the identification of different measures that are suited to express value creation. Stock returns did not provide an appropriate value measure. Instead, depending on the specific industry, Tobin’s Q ratio, MVA, and the market-to-book ratio should be used to measure and express value creation. Practical implications For management, the value drivers identified for each industry present a clear indication of industry-specific variables upon which they can focus in operating activities to most efficiently increase shareholder value. Originality/value Unlike previous studies that use only one or two different shareholder value creation measures as dependent variables, this study uses five different value creation measures. Another contribution of this study is the compilation of a unique set of value drivers that explain shareholder value creation separately for each of the nine different categories of firms.

scholarly journals Evaluating the economic impact of national sporting performance: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

2010 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. K. Smith ◽  
J. D. Krige
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Proxy Variable ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange ◽  
Sport Teams ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sporting Performance

This study examines the impact of South Africa’s national soccer, rugby and cricket teams’ performances in international matches on returns on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Match results constitute a mood proxy variable hypothesised to affect stock returns through its influence on investor mood. The unconditional mean return on the JSE All Share index for a 13½ year period from September 1995 to February 2009 was compared to the mean return after wins, draws and losses by the national sport teams. An event study approach was followed and four different statistical tests were conducted in order to test for a relationship. The results of the tests indicate the existence of a moderate win effect, with mean returns after wins being statistically significantly higher for the categories all sports combined, cricket and soccer.

scholarly journals Social Media Policies Within the Financial Sector in South Africa

SAGE Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 215824402097503
Author(s):  
Amanda van den Berg ◽  
Miemie Struwig
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Social Media ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Brand Image ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Document Analysis ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Relationship Building ◽  
Disciplinary Action ◽  
Johannesburg Stock Exchange

The main purpose of this article is to explore the social media policies of financial institutions in South Africa. Owing to the advances in technology, businesses are exposed to many opportunities but also risks in social media platforms. For the study, a thematic framework was considered to analyze social media policies, which included risk and relationship building, brand image and reputation, stakeholders and communities, disciplinary action and compliance as well as professional and personal guidelines. A qualitative document analysis of social media policies of select South African Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed financial institutions was then conducted. For the data analysis, a thematic document analysis using a consensual qualitative research process was applied. The results showed that all the financial institutions appreciated the value and opportunities provided by social media and ensured strict compliance to their social media policies. However, there were some financial institutions that did not focus on relationship building, did not mention brand image and reputation, did not include all stakeholders, and did not suggest personal guidelines in their social media policies.

Day Of The Week And Its Effect On Stock Market Volatility: Evidence From An Emerging Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1727 ◽  
Author(s):  
Omar Farooq ◽  
Mohammed Bouaddi ◽  
Neveen Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
Day Of The Week

This paper investigates the day of the week effect in the volatility of the Saudi Stock Exchange during the period between January 7, 2007 and April 1, 2013. Using a conditional variance framework, we find that the day of the week effect is present in the volatility. Our results show that the lowest volatility occurs on Saturdays and Sundays. We argue that due to the closure of international markets on Saturdays and Sundays, there is not enough activity in the Saudi Stock Exchange. As a result, the volatility is the lowest on these days. Our results also show that the highest volatility occurs on Wednesdays. We argue Wednesday, being the last trading day of the week, corresponds with the start of four non-trading days (Thursday through Sunday) for foreign investors. Fearing that they will be stuck up with stocks in case some unfavorable information enters the market, foreign investors tend to exit the market on Wednesdays. As a result of excessive trading, there is high volatility on Wednesdays.

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