The early 1970s marked a turning point in mankind's economic fortunes and the author takes 1974 as an 'artificial' vantage point from which to look back, but also forward. Several forces led to the shocks of the seventies: the breaking down in the discipline of the international payments system, rising inflation, the oil crisis, the West's loss of strategic military initiative to the East. The author outlines what ought to be done to improve the economic outlook for the 1980s: The international payments system must be placed on a more stable and disciplined footing, inflation must be controlled by balancing of national budgets, the energy crisis must be contained by reduction of oil consumption via the price mechanism. In South Africa the economic watershed year was 1976; two years later than that of the world economy in general. Since then a policy of strict financial discipline has led to a record surplus in balance of payments, which together with new emphasis on the importance of the free market mechanism and increasing energy self-sufficiency, promises a better economic future for South Africa than for many other countries.Die vroee 1970s was 'n keerpunt in die mensdom se ekonomiese lotgevalle en die skrywer neem 1974 as 'n 'kunsmatige' uitsigpunt vanwaar hy terug kyk, maar ook vorentoe. Verskeie magte het gelei tot die skokke van die sewentigs: die aftakeling van die dissipline van die internasionale betalingstelsel, stygende inflasie, die oliiekrisis, en die Weste se afstand van strategiese militere inisiatief aan die Ooste. Die skrywer dui aan wat gedoen moet word om die ekonomiese vooruitsigte vir die 1980s te verbeter: Die internasionale betalingstelsel moet op 'n meer stabiele en gedissiplineerde grondslag geplaas word, inflasie moet deur die balansering van nasionale begrotings beheer word, die energiekrisis moet via die prysmeganisme deur verminderde olieverbrulk beteuel word. In Suid-Afrika was die ekonomiese waterskeidingsjaar 1976; twee jaar later as die van die wereld-ekonomie in die algemeen. Sedertdien het 'n beleid van streng finansiele dissipline gelei tot 'n rekord surplus op die betalingsbalans, wat saam met nuwe klem op die belangrikheid van die vrye markmeganisme en toenemende energie-selfvoorsiening, 'n bater ekonomiese toekoms vir Suid-Afrika as vir baie ander lande beloof.
Should 1974 be considered a watershed year in the economic history of the world?