A stochastic population projection system based on general age-dependent branching processes

1987 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Charles J. Mode ◽  
Marc E. Jacobson ◽  
Gary T. Pickens
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Projection System ◽  
Stochastic Fluctuations ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Initial Population Size ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Function

Algorithms for a stochastic population process, based on assumptions underlying general age-dependent branching processes in discrete time with time inhomogeneous laws of evolution, are developed through the use of a new representation of basic random functions involving birth cohorts and random sums of random variables. New algorithms provide a capability for computing the mean age structure of the process as well as variances and covariances, measuring variation about means. Four exploratory population projections, testing the implications of the algorithms for the case of time-homogeneous laws of evolution, are presented. Formulas extending mean and variance functions for unit population projections to an arbitrary initial population size are also presented. These formulas show that, in population processes with non-random laws of evolution, stochastic fluctuations about the mean function are negligible when initial population size is large. Further extensions of these formulas to the case of randomized laws of evolution suggest that stochastic fluctuations about the mean function can be significant even for large initial populations.

A stochastic population projection system based on general age-dependent branching processes

1987 ◽  
Vol 24 (01) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Charles J. Mode ◽  
Marc E. Jacobson ◽  
Gary T. Pickens
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Projection System ◽  
Stochastic Fluctuations ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Initial Population Size ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Function

Algorithms for a stochastic population process, based on assumptions underlying general age-dependent branching processes in discrete time with time inhomogeneous laws of evolution, are developed through the use of a new representation of basic random functions involving birth cohorts and random sums of random variables. New algorithms provide a capability for computing the mean age structure of the process as well as variances and covariances, measuring variation about means. Four exploratory population projections, testing the implications of the algorithms for the case of time-homogeneous laws of evolution, are presented. Formulas extending mean and variance functions for unit population projections to an arbitrary initial population size are also presented. These formulas show that, in population processes with non-random laws of evolution, stochastic fluctuations about the mean function are negligible when initial population size is large. Further extensions of these formulas to the case of randomized laws of evolution suggest that stochastic fluctuations about the mean function can be significant even for large initial populations.

Asymptotic results for the extinction time of Markov branching processes allowing emigration, I. Random walk decrements

1989 ◽  
Vol 21 (02) ◽  
pp. 243-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony G. Pakes
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Extinction Time ◽  
Asymptotic Results ◽  
Time To Extinction ◽  
Initial Population Size ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The mathematical model is a Markov branching process which is subjected to catastrophes or large-scale emigration. Catastrophes reduce the population size by independent and identically distributed decrements, and two mechanisms for generating catastrophe epochs are given separate consideration. These are that catastrophes occur at a rate proportional to population size, and as an independent Poisson process. The paper studies some properties of the time to extinction of the modified process in those cases where extinction occurs almost surely. Particular attention is given to limit theorems and the behaviour of the expected extinction time as the initial population size grows. These properties are contrasted with known properties for the case when there is no catastrophe component.

Asymptotic results for the extinction time of Markov branching processes allowing emigration, I. Random walk decrements

1989 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 243-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony G. Pakes
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Extinction Time ◽  
Asymptotic Results ◽  
Time To Extinction ◽  
Initial Population Size ◽  
The Mathematical Model

The mathematical model is a Markov branching process which is subjected to catastrophes or large-scale emigration. Catastrophes reduce the population size by independent and identically distributed decrements, and two mechanisms for generating catastrophe epochs are given separate consideration. These are that catastrophes occur at a rate proportional to population size, and as an independent Poisson process.The paper studies some properties of the time to extinction of the modified process in those cases where extinction occurs almost surely. Particular attention is given to limit theorems and the behaviour of the expected extinction time as the initial population size grows. These properties are contrasted with known properties for the case when there is no catastrophe component.

scholarly journals Agglomeration economies, congestion diseconomies, and fertility dynamics in a two-region economy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madoka Muroishi ◽  
Akira Yakita
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Stability Condition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Initial Population ◽  
Interregional Migration ◽  
Stable Path ◽  
Regional Population ◽  
Initial Population Size

AbstractUsing a small, open, two-region economy model populated by two-period-lived overlapping generations, we analyze long-term agglomeration economy and congestion diseconomy effects of young worker concentration on migration and the overall fertility rate. When the migration-stability condition is satisfied, the distribution of young workers between regions is obtainable in each period for a predetermined population size. Results show that migration stability does not guarantee dynamic stability of the economy. The stationary population size stability depends on the model parameters and the initial population size. On a stable trajectory converging to the stationary equilibrium, the overall fertility rate might change non-monotonically with the population size of the economy because of interregional migration. In each period, interregional migration mitigates regional population changes caused by fertility differences on the stable path. Results show that the inter-regional migration-stability condition does not guarantee stability of the population dynamics of the economy.

A note on the subcritical generalized age-dependent branching process

1976 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 798-803 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. A. Doney
Keyword(s):  
Branching Process ◽  
Sufficient Condition ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient Condition ◽  
Malthusian Parameter ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Function ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient

For a subcritical Bellman-Harris process for which the Malthusian parameter α exists and the mean function M(t)∼ aeat as t → ∞, a necessary and sufficient condition for e–at (1 –F(s, t)) to have a non-zero limit is known. The corresponding condition is given for the generalized branching process.

Extinction probability for critical age-dependent branching processes with generation dependence

1980 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
Dean H. Fearn
Keyword(s):  
Branching Processes ◽  
Extinction Probability ◽  
Regularity Conditions ◽  
Limiting Behavior ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
Mean And Variance ◽  
Critical Age ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Probability Of Extinction ◽  
Lifespan Distribution

The limiting behavior of the probability of extinction of critical age-dependent branching processes with generation dependence is obtained using Goldstein's methods. Regularity conditions on the mean and variance of the birth distributions are assumed. Also the lifespan distribution is assumed to satisfy suitable regularity conditions.

On population-size-dependent branching processes

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. C. Klebaner
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Asymptotic Behaviour ◽  
Rate Of Convergence ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Gamma Distribution ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Size Dependent ◽  
Offspring Distribution ◽  
The Mean

We consider a stochastic model for the development in time of a population {Zn} where the law of offspring distribution depends on the population size. We are mainly concerned with the case when the mean mk and the variance of offspring distribution stabilize as the population size k grows to ∞, The process exhibits different asymptotic behaviour according to m < l, m = 1, m> l; moreover, the rate of convergence of mk to m plays an important role. It is shown that if m < 1 or m = 1 and mn approaches 1 not slower than n–2 then the process dies out with probability 1. If mn approaches 1 from above and the rate of convergence is n–1, then Zn/n converges in distribution to a gamma distribution, moreover a.s. both on a set of non-extinction and there are no constants an, such that Zn/an converges in probability to a non-degenerate limit. If mn approaches m > 1 not slower than n–α, α > 0, and do not grow to ∞ faster than nß, β <1 then Zn/mn converges almost surely and in L2 to a non-degenerate limit. A number of general results concerning the behaviour of sums of independent random variables are also given.

Asymptotic behaviour of population-size-dependent branching processes in Markovian random environments

1999 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 611-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han-Xing Wang ◽  
Dafan Fang
Keyword(s):  
Asymptotic Behaviour ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Branching Processes ◽  
Random Environments ◽  
Real Numbers ◽  
Size Dependent ◽  
Recurrent Markov Chain ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Positive Recurrent

A population-size-dependent branching process {Zn} is considered where the population's evolution is controlled by a Markovian environment process {ξn}. For this model, let mk,θ and be the mean and the variance respectively of the offspring distribution when the population size is k and a environment θ is given. Let B = {ω : Zn(ω) = 0 for some n} and q = P(B). The asymptotic behaviour of limnZn and is studied in the case where supθ|mk,θ − mθ| → 0 for some real numbers {mθ} such that infθmθ > 1. When the environmental sequence {ξn} is a irreducible positive recurrent Markov chain (particularly, when its state space is finite), certain extinction (q = 1) and non-certain extinction (q < 1) are studied.

scholarly journals Bounds for the Asymptotic Growth Rate of an Age-Dependent Branching Process

1969 ◽  
Vol 10 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 231-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Brockwell
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Branching Process ◽  
Expected Number ◽  
Lattice Distribution ◽  
Asymptotic Growth ◽  
Age Dependent ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Image Position ◽  
Asymptotic Growth Rate

Let M(t) denote the mean population size at time t (conditional on a single ancestor of age zero at time zero) of a branching process in which the distribution of the lifetime T of an individual is given by Pr {T≦t} =G(t), and in which each individual gives rise (at death) to an expected number A of offspring (1λ A λ ∞). expected number A of offspring (1 < A ∞). Then it is well-known (Harris [1], p. 143) that, provided G(O+)-G(O-) 0 and G is not a lattice distribution, M(t) is given asymptotically by where c is the unique positive value of p satisfying the equation .

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