Technogenic Risk Optimization Method for Electrical Installations at a Production Facility

The level of technogenic safety at the production facilities of the Russian Federation is expressed by low values. In this regard, the fire situation is a major hazard: a significant share is represented by the fires that occur at the electrical installations (up to 30 %). Fire risk analysis includes the determination of the probabilities of the occurrence of a fire and its consequences in order to obtain the risk numerical value that determines the fire safety of the object, and its comparison with an acceptable (tolerable) level. The use of a semantic description of risk-forming factors characterizing a hazardous event, their linguistic assessment and the level of significance allows to obtain a range of numerical values for the fire risk of electrical installations. Mathematical modeling is accompanied by the construction of a two-dimensional vector characteristic of the quantitative and qualitative criteria for the integral risk of fire in the electrical installations, which represents a functional dependence on the indicators of the probability of a fire occurrence and the severity of its consequences (material damage). Description of the dynamic model a «human — electrical installation — environment», its life cycle, determines the characteristics of the system considering the fire conditions, and represents five stages: dynamic balance; violation of dynamic balance; destructive action (explosion, fire); restoration of normal functioning; the acquisition of a normal state. Based on this description, the fire risk numerical values at the electrical installation are obtained. When calculating fire risks, it is required to consider the nature of the «human — electrical installation — environment» system, since it is subject to the action of random processes and risk-forming factors that are caused by the presence of electrical installations and the external environment. Improvement of the electrical installations safety system requires using the new technical solutions, and the development of an algorithm for a technogenic safety management system. The main task of fire risk management is to optimize its level. The fire risk is used as a criterion determined by the totality of risk-forming factors of the human-machine system.