scholarly journals International Evidence on Extending Sovereign Debt Maturities

2021 ◽  
pp. 1.000-30.000
Author(s):  
Jens H. E. Christensen ◽  
◽  
Jose A Lopez ◽  
Paul Mussche
Keyword(s):  
Asset Management ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Foreign Government ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
Dynamic Yield

Portfolio diversification is as important to debt management as it is to asset management. In this paper, we focus on diversification of sovereign debt issuance by examining the extension of the maximum maturity of issued debt. In particular, we examine the potential costs to the U.S. Treasury of introducing 50-year bonds as a financing option. Based on evidence from foreign government bond markets with such long-term debt, our results suggest that a 50-year Treasury bond would likely trade at an average yield that is at most 20 basis points above that of a 30-year bond. Our results based on extrapolations from a dynamic yield curve model using just U.S. Treasury yields are similar.

scholarly journals Take the Short Route: Equilibrium Default and Debt Maturity

Econometrica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 87 (2) ◽  
pp. 423-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Aguiar ◽  
Manuel Amador ◽  
Hugo Hopenhayn ◽  
Iván Werning
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Limited Commitment ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Marginal Costs ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Debt Default

We study the interactions between sovereign debt default and maturity choice in a setting with limited commitment for repayment as well as future debt issuances. Our main finding is that, under a wide range of conditions, the sovereign should, as long as default is not preferable, remain passive in long‐term bond markets, making payments and retiring long‐term bonds as they mature but never actively issuing or buying back such bonds. The only active debt‐management margin is the short‐term bond market. We show that any attempt to manipulate the existing maturity profile of outstanding long‐term bonds generates losses, as bond prices move against the sovereign. Our results hold regardless of the shape of the yield curve. The yield curve captures the average costs of financing at different maturities but is misleading regarding the marginal costs.

Inter-dependencies among Asian bond markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 485-505 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sowmya Subramaniam ◽  
Krishna P. Prasanna
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary Authorities ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Regional Factors

Purpose The purpose of the paper is to investigate the global and regional influences on the domestic term structure of nine Asian economies. Design/methodology/approach The dynamic Nelson Siegel model was used to extract the latent factors of a country’s yield curve movements in a state-space framework using the Kalman filter. The global and regional factors of the yield curve were extracted using the dynamic factor model. Further, the Bayesian inference of Gibbs sampling approach was used to identify the influence of global and regional factors on the domestic yield curve. Findings The results suggest that financial integration does not reduce the control of monetary authorities on the front end of the yield curve, and long-term interest rate is the potential transmission channel through which the contagion of the financial crisis spreads. Practical implications The results of this study would help the monetary authorities to understand the efficacy of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It also offers the global investors diversification opportunities for investing in the Asian bond markets. Originality/value It is one of the earliest attempts to capture the global and regional yield curve movements and their impact on the emerging Asian economies yield curve. It contributes to literature by identifying the linkages in the long-term factor that is the potential channel through which crisis spreads.

scholarly journals Long-Term Returns in Distressed Sovereign Bond Markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (138) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Jochen Andritzky ◽  
Julian Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Excess Return ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Sovereign Bond Markets

Sovereign debt restructurings are perceived as inflicting large losses to bondholders. However, many bonds feature high coupons and often exhibit strong post-crisis recoveries. To account for these aspects, we analyze the long-term returns of sovereign bonds during 32 crises since 1998, taking into account losses from bond exchanges as well as profits before and after such events. We show that the average excess return over risk-free rates in crises with debt restructuring is not significantly lower than the return on bonds in crises without restructuring. Returns differ considerably depending on the investment strategy: Investors who sell during crises fare much worse than buy-and-hold investors or investors entering the market upon signs of distress

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Likuiditas, Faktor Fundamental Ekonomi Makro Dan Faktor Eksternal Terhadap Imbal Hasil Surat Utang Negara (Seri FR0031)

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Deandra Aulia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Government

The government reopened the series FR0031 sovereign debt at the beginning of January 2010 through the Bank Indonesia auction system. The offered interest rate same as the beginning when the government issued FR0031 series debt securities, fixed rate of 11% but over time yield or yield in the form of coupons received by investors are fluctuating.               The aims of this research is to analyze the short term and long term influence of liquidity, interest rate, inflation, GDP, and exchange rate to imbal hasil National Bond (SUN) in the year of 2010 – 2017. This research using quarterly data of 2010 – 2017 for each variable. Data in this study is secondary data time series which provide by Bloomberg, Bank Indonesia, BPS and publication of Directorate General of Debt Management. The methode which used in this research is Error Correction Model. The result shows that variable inflation, GDP and exchange rate significantly positive effect in otherhand liquidity and interset rate significantly negative effect on Imbal hasil Curve SUN in long term. Judging by the value of the R square was 0.906314 it means 90.63% of imbal hasil explainable by independent variables used in this research the rest 9.37% explained by other factors. Based on the regression results there is no variable that significant in the short term with R square of 0.341939 which means the independent variable is able to explain 34.19% and 65.81% variation of the dependent variable

scholarly journals Integration and Disintegration of EMU Government Bond Markets

Econometrics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Christian Leschinski ◽  
Michelle Voges ◽  
Philipp Sibbertsen
Keyword(s):  
Long Memory ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Memory Time ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
Default Risks

It is commonly found that the markets for long-term government bonds of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries were integrated prior to the EMU debt crisis. Contrasting this, we show, based on the interrelation between market integration and fractional cointegration, that there were periods of integration and disintegration that coincide with bull and bear market periods in the stock market. An econometric argument about the spectral behavior of long-memory time series leads to the conclusion that there is a stronger differentiation between bonds with different default risks. This implied the possibility of macroeconomic and fiscal divergence between the EMU countries before the crisis periods.

scholarly journals New Strategies for Emerging Domestic Sovereign Bond Markets in the Global Financial Landscape

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 1850111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans J. Blommestein ◽  
Javier Santiso
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Remarkable Feature ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Sovereign Bond Markets

The forces shaping the revolution in banking and capital markets have radically changed the financial landscape during the past three decades. A remarkable feature of this changing new landscape has been the astonishing rate of internationalisation of the financial system in the last two decades, with emerging markets becoming increasingly important participants. At times this participation has led to excessive reliance on foreign financing, making the participation of these countries in the global financial system more vulnerable to shifts in expectations and perceptions. The sovereign debt management strategy suffered from many structural weaknesses, failing to take into account international best practices in financing budget deficits and developing domestic government securities markets. Consequently, emerging markets experienced episodes of serious financial crises. Against this background, this article focuses on new and more sophisticated strategies to develop domestic bond markets, taking into account the risk profile, complexities and other constraints of emerging markets. The article's central thesis is that risk-based public debt management and liquid domestic bond markets are important mutually reinforcing strategies for emerging financial markets to attain (1) enhanced financial stability, and (2) a more successful participation in the global financial landscape. It will also be shown that this twin-strategies approach requires taking a macroeconomic policy perspective.

scholarly journals Robust long-term interest rate risk hedging in incomplete bond markets

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Sally Shen ◽  
Antoon Pelsser ◽  
Peter Schotman
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Risk Hedging ◽  
Hedging Portfolio ◽  
Robust Least Squares ◽  
Rate Environment ◽  
Market Consistent Valuation ◽  
Pension Liabilities

Abstract Pricing ultra-long-dated pension liabilities under the market-consistent valuation is challenged by the scarcity of the long-term market instruments that match or exceed the terms of pension liabilities. We develop a robust self-financing hedging strategy which adopts a min–max expected shortfall hedging criterion to replicate the long-dated liabilities for agents who fear parameter misspecification. We introduce a backward robust least squares Monte Carlo method to solve this dynamic robust optimization problem. We find that both naive and robust optimal portfolios depend on the hedging horizon and the current funding ratio. The robust policy suggests taking more risk when the current funding ratio is low. The yield curve constructed by the robust dynamic hedging portfolio is always lower than the naive one but is higher than the model-based yield curve in a low-rate environment.

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