scholarly journals Macro Stress Testing Credit Risk: Case of Madagascar Banking Sector

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 199-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miora Rakotonirainy ◽  
Jean Razafindravonona ◽  
Christian Rasolomanana
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Stress Testing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Banking System ◽  
System Level ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Risk Equation

AbstractThis study proposes to assess the vulnerability of banking sector’s credit portfolio under macroeconomic shocks and to evaluate its impact on banking system capitalization. Our method uses the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) Model to generate adverse macroeconomic scenarios. The GVAR model is combining by the satellite credit risk equation to find the non-performing loan under stress conditions. The advantage of using GVAR model is that on the one hand, it captures the transmission of global, external and domestic macroeconomic shocks on banks non-performing loans. On the other hand, this model considers the nonlinear pattern between business cycle and the bank credit risk indicator during the extreme events as highlighting by the macro stress test literature. The forecast of non-performing loan is then used to obtain stress projections for capital requirement for the banking system level. This article attempts to fill the lacks concerning the stress testing works about Madagascar which study is a recent framework, whose no study on dynamic macro stress testing was treated before. The Results outline the interaction of aggregate non-performing loan with macroeconomic evolution. The horizon of capital prediction shows that banking sector reacts most to a GDP shock. Also, Madagascar banking sector is quite resilient and remains sufficiently capitalized under all macroeconomic scenarios designed with a solvency ratio higher than the minimum regulatory CAR ratio.

Stress-testing Russian Banking System: Will Banks Need Government Assistance Again?

2010 ◽  
pp. 61-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Solntsev ◽  
A. Pestova ◽  
M. Mamonov
Keyword(s):  
Stress Testing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Government Assistance ◽  
Methodological Issues ◽  
Loan Portfolio ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Remote Stress ◽  
Capital Injections

The article analyzes factors that affect growth of the share of non-performing loans in the loan portfolio of Russian banks and proposes approaches for this share forecasting on the basis of dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. It also deals with methodological issues of remote stress-test of lending agencies. Using the results of conducted stress-test of Russian banks the authors assess their perspective capital needs in 2010 and estimate the share of government assistance in capital injections. Furthermore, the authors define the scale of vulnerable banks groups in the Russian banking sector.

scholarly journals MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACT OF MAIN CHALLENGES OF MODERNITY ON EMPLOYMENT IN BANKING SECTOR ACCORDING TO STRESS TESTING METHODOLOGY

2021 ◽  
pp. 214-227
Author(s):  
O.O. Domuz ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stress Testing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Criteria And Indicators ◽  
Banking Institutions ◽  
System 2 ◽  
The Impact

According to results of the study, globalization factors that require specific approaches to analysis in the context of changes and transformations that occur in socio-economic sphere of banking system; A model of stress testing to assess the impact of global factors on changes in the level and structure of employment of employees of banking institutions, based on the use of tools to find extreme values ​​at the level of individual banking institutions and the banking system as a whole are showen; In order to test the model, the stages of its application are formed: 1. selection of criteria for stress testing of changes in the bank's employment system; 2. the choice of indicators that characterize changes in the level and structure of employment of a bank; 3. conducting stress testing of criteria and indicators based on the use of tools for detecting extreme quantities; 4. construction of a stress test map by periods; 5. comparison of stress test maps of impact criteria and indicators, analysis of common sensitivity points in order to identify the causes and degree of influence of global factors; Within the framework of the model, special attention is paid to analytical methods to determine the impact and sensitivity of the employment response to trends and changes in the macro- and microeconomic environment; Using the method of determining extreme values, the existence of a relationship between the criteria that characterize the financial and economic performance of national banks and the degree of transformational changes in bank employment; As a result of the construction of stress test maps, it was determined that the criteria of financial and economic activity of banks and employment indicators in banking sector are highly sensitive to crises in respective periods, but respond differently to macroeconomic factors of different periods; The proposals on the expediency and necessity of using the model of stress testing in national banking system are formed.

scholarly journals Stress Testing of the Montenegrin Banking System with Aggregated and Bank-Specific Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-119
Author(s):  
Sanja Vuković
Keyword(s):  
Stress Testing ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Loan Loss Provision ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio

Abstract There are many different approaches to the process of stress testing and two of them will be investigated in this paper. The first one is a stress test performed on aggregated data i.e. the banking system as a whole. The variable of interest in both exercises is the Loan Loss Provision ratio (hereinafter: the LLP). The main goal of the thesis is to find an answer to the following question: what are the macroeconomic variables that influence LLP the most and how will LLP, as a variable of interest, behave in a situation when all these variables were to experience negative performance at the same time? The resilience of the banking system to such scenario will be tested through the capital adequacy ratio. In order to find out more about the management practices of banks, microlevel data on banks were also used in the analysis. The focus was to see which of the variables are able to explain the LLP ratio for each bank individually and how is this information helpful for possible improvements in the banking sector. The relations between these variables will be able to explain some of the banks’ losses and some of the banks’ practices regarding credit activities. The analysis there will provide for some recommendations for the banks but also for the Central Bank and its way to influence the practices in the banking sector.

scholarly journals MACROPRUDENTIAL STRESS-TESTING THE INDONESIAN BANKING SYSTEM USING THE CREDIT RISK MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-138
Author(s):  
Shilvia Kurniawati ◽  
Deddy Priatmodjo Koesrindartoto
Keyword(s):  
Stress Testing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Allocation ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Capital Adequacy Ratio ◽  
One Year ◽  
Credit Risk Model

This study implements a macroprudential stress test and develops the EconomicRisk Weighted-Capital Adequacy Ratio (ERW-CAR) to evaluate the resilience of theIndonesian banking sector. The results show that the historical and one-year aheadpredicted ERW-CARs are currently three percent lower than the Indonesia regulatoryCAR, and continue to decrease by nearly two percent following an exchange rate shock.However, the capital adequacy requirement stands above the eight percent thresholdand the banks are still able to optimize their capital allocation.

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on the Individual Banks: Case of Madagascar

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. p99
Author(s):  
Prof. Jean Razafindravonon
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Stress Test ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Basel Iii ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model

The successive financial crises have highlighted the interdependence between the financial system and the real economy. Prudential measures to limit the negative repercussions of the financial crisis, through the Basel I and Basel II agreements, have shown their limits and the Basel III agreements have consequently integrated the macro-prudential component which aims to ensure the stability of the financial sector as a whole within the economy. The financial stability assessment tool known as the “stress test” has also been developed in various forms and its application to the financial sector, particularly the banking sector, is strongly recommended by the Bank for International Settlements. Indeed, the purpose of this study is to assess the resilience of the Malagasy banking sector to macroeconomic shocks and to evaluate its impact on the capitalization of the banking system through the macroeconomic stress test tool. To do so, we used a dynamic panel model. Non-performing loan forecasts are used to obtain capital projections at both the banking system and bank levels under adverse scenarios. The results show that most banks were able to hold capital above the minimum regulatory threshold of 8% under Basel III standards. However, only one bank fails to meet the minimum capital adequacy threshold. Non-performing loan forecasts are used to obtain capital projections at both the banking system and bank levels under adverse scenarios.

scholarly journals Analysis of The Influence of Liquidity, Credit and Operational Risk, in Indonesian Islamic Bank’s Financing for The Period 2007-2013

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ousmane Diallo ◽  
Tettet Fitrijanti ◽  
Nanny Dewi Tanzil
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Operational Risk ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Islamic Bank

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of credit, liquidity and operational risks in six Indonesian’s islamic banking financing products namely mudharabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh, in order to try to discover whether or not Indonesian islamic banking is based on the “risk-sharing” system. This paper relies on a fixed effect model test based on the panel data analysis method, focusing on the period from 2007 to 2013. The research is an exploratory and descriptive study of all the Indonesian islamic banks that were operating in 2013. The results of this study show that the Islamic banking system in Indonesia truly has banking products based on “risk-sharing.” We found out that credit, operational and liquidity risks as a whole, have significant influence on mudarabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is a correlation between the credit risk and mudarabah based financing, and no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharaka, murabahah, ijarah, istishna and qardh based financing. There is also correlation between the operational risk and mudarabah and murabahah based financing, and no causal relationship between the operational risk and musharaka, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is correlation between the liquidity risk and istishna based financing, and no causal relationship between the liquidity risk and musharaka, mudarabah, murabahah, ijarah and qardh based financing. A major implication of this study is the fact that there is no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharakah based financing, which is the mode of financing where the islamic bank shares the risk with its clients, but there is an influence of credit risk toward mudarabah mode financing, a financing mode where the Islamic bank bears all the risk. These findings can lead us to conclude that the Indonesian Islamic banking sector is based on the “risk sharing” system.

scholarly journals Political risk and banking sector performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Adefemi A. Obalade ◽  
Babatunde Lawrence ◽  
Joseph Olorunfemi Akande
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Political Systems ◽  
Business Outcomes ◽  
Stage System ◽  
The Stability

Political risk is prevalent in Nigeria and tends to influence business outcomes and the stability of the banking system. As a result of this study, it was determined whether political risk matters to the performance of the banking sector in Nigeria. The effect of political risk on different banks’ performance measures, such as return on assets, return on invested capital, credit risk and stock price, were examined in a panel of 12 selected commercial banks for the period 2006–2018. Data was analyzed using a two-stage system of generalized method of moments. The results provided evidence that the effect of political risk on bank performance depends on the performance proxies. Specifically, political risk was found to be negatively related to banks’ returns on invested capital and positively related to deteriorating credit risk. Hence, it can be concluded that political risk induces poor banking system performance in Nigeria. The study provides a critical insight into the management of a country’s political systems in terms of their potential to create unfavorable conditions for banking systems to thrive.

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