scholarly journals Romanian Equity Investments and Currency Risk: A Euro-Based Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 162-176
Author(s):  
loana Radu ◽  
Alexandra Horobet ◽  
Lucian Belascu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Currency Risk ◽  
Total Risk ◽  
International Investments ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Local Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstract This paper assesses the benefits and risks of international investments made on the Romanian stock market, from the perspective of euro-based investors. We investigate the contribution of exchange rate volatility to the total risk of these investments over a period of nine years, between January 2011 and December 2019, by using monthly values for the exchange rate between the Romanian leu and Euro and monthly values of the Romanian stock index. Our findings indicate that, on average, Romanian leu depreciated against euro, causing currency losses for the euro-based investor, counterbalanced by the Romanian index mean return, higher than euro countries index mean return during the period under analysis. However, comparing the exchange rate volatility with the volatility of the local index market, we find that that exchange rate returns have lower standard deviations values, which may suggest that the exchange rate volatility does not seem to be an additional factor to the total volatility of the Romanian stock market returns denominated in euro. This conclusion is supported by the values obtained for lambda, a synthetic indicator which measures the proportion of the volatility attributable to exchange rate fluctuations from the total volatility of the euro-based investor returns. Combined, these results imply that currency risk has only a moderate and controllable influence on international investments made by a euro-based investor on the Romanian stock market

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatilities: evidence from selected emerging economies

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Rakshit ◽  
Yadawananda Neog
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Market Performance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of exchange rate volatility, oil price return and COVID-19 cases on the stock market returns and volatility for selected emerging market economies. Additionally, this study compares the market performance in the emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic with the pre-COVID and global financial crisis (GFC) period. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the arbitrage pricing theory to model the risk-return relationship between the risk-based factors (exchange rate volatility and COVID-19 cases) and stock market returns. By applying the exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model, the study captures the asymmetric volatility spillover from the stock markets to foreign exchange markets and vice versa. Findings Findings reveal that exchange rate volatility exerts a negative and significant effect on the market returns in Brazil (BOVESPA), Chile (S&P CLX IPSA), India (SENSEX), Mexico (S&P BMV IPC) and Russia (MOEX) during the coronavirus pandemic. Regarding the effect of oil price returns, the authors find a positive relationship between oil price and stock market returns across all the economies in the study. The market returns of Russia, India, Brazil and Peru appeared more volatile during the pandemic than the GFC period. Practical implications As the exchange rate volatility is causing higher risk and uncertainty in the stock market’s performance, the central bank’s effort to maintain a stabilizing effect on the exchange rate sale can be proven crucial for the economies under consideration. Emphasized should also be given to boost investors’ confidence in the stock market, and for this, the government policy actions in reducing the transmission of the disease are the need of the hour. Originality/value While a large volume of literature on stock market performance in times of COVID-19 has emerged from developed economies, this study adds to the literature by exploring the emerging economies’ stock market performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike previous literature, this study examines the volatility spillover between stock and exchange rate markets in the worst affected emerging economies during the crisis.

scholarly journals MEASURING EFFICIENCY OF SOUTH AMERICAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE DERIVATIVES MARKET IN MINIMIZING CURRENCY RISK:

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
RAAD MOZIB LALON
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
South American ◽  
Currency Risk ◽  
Measuring Efficiency ◽  
Spot Exchange Rate ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper attempts to reveal whether the foreign exchange (FX) derivatives market effectively and efficiently reduces the volatility to foreign exchange rate fiuctuations. Cross-country evidence suggests that development ofthe FXderivatives market does not boost up spot exchange rate volatility and reduces aggregate exposure to currency risk. Intraday evidence for Chile shows that activity in the forward market has not been associated with higher volatility in the exchange rate following the adoption ofa fioating exchange rate regime. The study also found no evidence that net positions of large participants in the FX derivatives market help to predict the exchange rate. These findings support the view that development of the FX derivatives market is valuable to reduce aggregate currency risk.

scholarly journals The The Impact of the Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Markets Dynamics in Tunisia and Turkey: An Artificial Neural Network Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Nesrine Mechri ◽  
Christian De Peretti ◽  
Salah BEN HAMAD
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
The Impact

The present research provides an overview of links between exchange rate volatility and the dynamics of stock market returns in order to identify the influence of several macroeconomic variables on the volatility of stock markets, useful for political decision makers as well as investors to better control the portfolio risk level. More precisely, this research aims to identify the impact of exchange rate volatility on the fluctuations of stock market returns, considering two countries that belong to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) zone: Tunisia and Turkey. Previous works in the literature used very specified and short periods of study, many important variables were neglected, and most of the earlier research was concentrated on the developed countries. In this research, we integrate several control variables of stock market returns that have not been simultaneously studied before. In addition, we spread out our research period up to 15 years including many events and dynamics. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and multiple regression models are first employed. Then, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used and compared with the results of the multiple regression. Hence, the results show that for both Tunisia and Turkey, exchange rate volatility has a significant effect on stock market fluctuations.

scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adedoyin I. Lawal ◽  
Russel O. C Somoye ◽  
Abiola A. Babajide
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

scholarly journals MENGKAJI PERUBAHAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN PASAR SAHAM

2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Untoro Untoro ◽  
Priyo R. Widodo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

This paper analyzes the relationship between the Exchange rate and the stock market in Jakarta, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippine and Hongkong using a high frequency data. We applied the Vector Autoregressive method on the daily data covering 1 July 1997 to 30 June 2006.The analysis provides several results as follows: (i) the exchange rate movements is influenced by the regional and the Hongkong stock market index, except Thailand, (ii) Jakarta stock market index is influenced by the regional stock market except Thailand, (iii) the Rupiah rate influence the regional and Hongkong stock index, (iv) the Jakarta's stock market index is integrated to the regional stock market index. These results may be a usefull as an additional guidance to evaluate the Rupiah's exchange rate and the regional stock market movement in general.JEL Classification: C32, F31, G15                 Keywords: Stock, Vector Autoregressive, exchange rate.

scholarly journals Relationship between the Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Instability Before and After the Tunisian Revolution

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (04) ◽  
Author(s):  
Youssra Ben Romdhane ◽  
Mohamed Ben Amar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The State ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
The Political ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Macroeconomic Instability ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The year 2011 has been marked as a major turning point in the Tunisian modern history from different perspectives. The popular uprising and the fall of the former regime in January led the country into a period of political and economic instability that has notably affected the national stock market. In this respect, the present study aims at investigating the dynamic links between the yield on the stock index and the macroeconomic instability in an environment characterized with political uncertainty. In a bid to analyze the political uncertainty’s impacts on the stock market and on the macroeconomic aggregates, mainly on the inflation and the exchange rate before and during the 2011 revolution, we consider it useful to implement an empirical testing on the nature of interaction binding these associated variables. To this end, a specified an error correction model is estimated to examine the period 1984-2016, to help highlight the short and long-term effects associating the considered variables. The reached results proved to indicate that the Tunisian Dinar (TND) exchange rate remains noticeable the variable which continued to undergo an adjustment process following the inflation and the political uncertainty related dynamics. The financial indicator “Tun-Index” is discovered to be not only weakly exogenous, but also closely associated with a “rate of endogeneity” that stands as noticeably lower than the exchange rate. In effect, the strong inflation the state had with eased throughout the economy during period 2012-2016 entailed remarkable devaluations of the TND to take place. Actually, such a significant devaluation turns out to have its exploration in the political uncertainty predominates the state affairs.

scholarly journals Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Stock Market Volatilities in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 244-259
Author(s):  
Lakshmanasamy T.
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

With increasing globalisation and integration of national stock exchanges, for the global investor, the portfolio risk increases not only from the local stock market volatility but also in the exchange rate risk. This paper examines the exchange rate volatility effect on volatility in stock market return from India’s perspective for the period January 2010 to December 2015, applying ARCH and GARCH estimation. The daily data of the BSE SENSEX returns, exchange rates of US dollar/rupee, British pound/rupee, Euros/rupee are used. It is estimated that the Euro/rupee exchange rate volatility has a significant positive effect on the BSE SENSEX return volatility, while the effect of the US dollar/rupee and British pound/rupee exchange rate the volatilities are insignificantly negative. The larger GARCH parameter over the ARCH term indicates that the own lagged values of the stock return cause more volatility in stock returns than the innovations. There exists a highly persistent effect of shocks to the BSE SENSEX return and the volatility effect wanes only slowly

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