Monetary Transmission in the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Spain (1995-2003)

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 279-292
Author(s):  
María A. Prats ◽  
Gloria M. Soto
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the effectiveness of the transmission mechanism of monetary  policy in Spain has changed since EMU establishment. The analysis is based on the fulfillment of the Expectations Hypothesis under rational expectations and the methodology is implemented through a  cointegrated  bivariate VAR model. The results reveal the existence of  monetary transmission in the term structure in the  period prior to EMU, even though the evidence is stronger up to the one-year rate. From 1999, the results are   only consistent with a weak evidence of monetary transmission.

Term spread regressions of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure allowing for risk premium effects

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Efthymios Argyropoulos ◽  
Elias Tzavalis
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Structure Model ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Term Spread ◽  
Term Premium

AbstractThis paper suggests a new empirical methodology of testing the predictions of the term spread between long and short-term interest rates about future changes of the former allowing for term premium effects, according to the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure. To capture the effects of a time-varying term premium on the term spread, the paper relies on an empirically attractive affine Gaussian dynamic term structure model which assumes that the term structure of interest rates is spanned by three unobserved state variables. To retrieve accurate values of these variables from interest rates series, the paper suggests a new method which can overcome the effects of measurement (or pricing) errors inherent in these series on the estimates of the model. This method is assessed by a Monte Carlo study. Ignoring these errors will lead to biased estimates of term structure models. The empirical results of the paper provide support for the suggested term structure model. They show that this model can efficiently capture the time-varying term premium effects embodied in long-term interest rates, which can explain the failures of term spread to forecast future changes in long-term rates.

scholarly journals Testes da Hipótese de Expectativas na Estrutura a Termo das Taxas de Juros Brasileiras

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Benjamin Miranda Tabak ◽  
Sandro Canesso de Andrade
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Single Equation ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Macro Modeling ◽  
Daily Data

We test the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) plus Rational Expectations (RE) in the Brazilian term-structure of interest rates, using maturities ranging from 1 month to 12 months, and daily data from 1995 to 2000. We rely on two methodologies based on single-equation regressions. Our results indicate a rejection of the EH plus RE, specially at the longer maturity. This may have important implications for the rational expectations macro-modeling currently being used to evaluate the conduct of monetary policy in Brazil. We also show the risk premium in the yield curve are positively related to the covered interest rate differential and to the volatility of interest rates.

scholarly journals The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: An Empirical Framework

1995 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 11-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
John B Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides an overview of the monetary transmission mechanism describing the impact of changes in monetary policy on real GDP. Changes in financial market prices--including long-term interest rates and exchange rates--are the main vehicle for the transmission of policy. The framework incorporates rational expectations and policy rules. It is empirical and appears to fit the facts well.

The Liquidity Premium in the Money Market: A Comparison of the German Mark Period and the Euro Area

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Durré
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Money Market ◽  
Liquidity Premium ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Cointegrating Vector ◽  
The One ◽  
German Mark

Abstract This paper investigates to what extent the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) of interest rates receives some support since the launch of the European single currency. Empirical evidence shows that in general this theory applies to most European countries, and to Germany in particular. The objective of this paper thus is twofold. First, the EHTS for the German money market and for a larger sample including the German mark period and the euro money market is tested in order to check whether the results for the former are affected by the new financial environment since January 1999. Second, the implications of the results for the monetary policy assessment are discussed. We estimate cointegrating vector autoregressive models in order to quantify the level of the liquidity premium. The results suggest that financial markets do not consider the monetary policy of the European Central Bank simply as the one prevailing during the German period.

scholarly journals Panel Data Analysis of Monetary Transmission Mechanism for European Union Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Dina Cakmur Yildirtan ◽  
Selin Sarili
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Monetary Transmission Mechanism

Monetary transmission mechanism is the mechanism which shows  in what ways and what extent interaction between the real economy-monetary policy, impacts aggregate demand and production. While transmission channels or mechanisms traditionally classified they divided into three categories; interest rates, Exchange rates and other asset prices.In this study to test the existence of the European debt crisis by the monetary transmission mechanism, 15 members of European Union country by using annual (2002-2014) data set were included into study. We use panel unit root tests to analyze whether the variables in the model are stationary or not. For the countries included in the study, panel causality tests developed by Granger is applied. Panel Vector Autoregressive Model has been estimated and results of Impulse-Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition have been interpreted.

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