Low altitude microburst wind shear would do harm to aircrafts’ takeoff and landing. In order to analyze flight safety and advise better escape strategies, a mathematical model was built with high fidelity by a vortex ring based microburst model and a flight dynamics model with wind effects. A human pilot model which can describe characteristics of pilots such as skills, experiences, emotion, etc was embedded into the dynamics model. Since the key parameters of the microburst wind shear model and pilot model were set to be stochastic, the Monte Carlo method was adopted to obtain a numerical approximation of the probability density function of the minimum altitude and the F-factors for flight safety analysis.
Risk assessment and its application to flight safety analysis
