Regional Business Confidence as Early Indicator of Regional Economic Growth

Official sub-national GDP figures in South Africa are usually published with long delays or not at all, i.e. relevant, reliable, and real-time economic data on a provincial and local (municipal) level are often non-existent, causing a significant data asymmetry at the sub-national level. The search for an ‘optimal’ sub-national proxy for regional economic growth focuses on the possible use of regional business confidence. This article, therefore, investigates the use of regional business confidence indices (RBCI) as an early indicator or proxy of the regional economic growth rate (RGDP). To this end, the study employed panel cointegration methodology and techniques to interrogate the possible association between regional business confidence and regional economic growth, focusing on three specific regions of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The results suggest that the utilisation of regional business confidence indicators indeed has merit. Constraints experienced in the study indicate the direction that further studies may follow, especially concerning the scope of the period and cross-sections. The research, therefore, addresses a fundamental gap in the data asymmetry in South Africa, while also setting a benchmark for other researchers to follow.

Download Full-text

Impact of Regional Air connectivity on Regional Economic Growth in India

European Transport/Trasporti Europei ◽

10.48295/et.2021.83.4 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-17

Author(s):

Brajesh Mishra

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Decomposition Analysis ◽

Panel Cointegration ◽

Air Transport ◽

Regional Economic Growth ◽

Transport Sector ◽

Regional Economic ◽

Surface Transport ◽

Federal States ◽

Variance Decomposition Analysis

In this study, we have used the panel data of 15 federal states to evaluate the empirical linkages between regional economic growth, air transport traffic, and surface transport indicators. There is a dearth of academic articles focusing on inter-dependence between these factors in the context of India. Pedroni panel cointegration, FMOLS, panel VECM causality techniques, and variance decomposition analysis have been used to evaluate dynamics between the three variables. The evaluation of linkages between the regional air connectivity and the regional economic growth holds practical implications since it forms the basis of various policy and regulatory measures instituted in the Indian air transport sector. The bidirectional relationship between air transport and surface transport indicators calls for making multi-modal studies by experts as guiding force behind planning processes instead of relying purely on bureaucratic consultation.

Download Full-text

Historical GIS as a Foundation for the Analysis of Regional Economic Growth

Social Science History ◽

10.1017/s0145553200010300 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 24 (3) ◽

pp. 575-612

Author(s):

Richard G. Healey ◽

Trem R. Stamp

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Information Science ◽

Regional Scale ◽

National Level ◽

Geographical Information ◽

Regional Economic Growth ◽

Regional Economic ◽

Historical Gis ◽

Empirical Inquiry ◽

Neoclassical Economic Theory

The argument of this article starts with three key theoretical postulates: First, regional-scale explanation differs in important respects from either aggregate macroeconomic studies of development at the national level or microeconomic and business historical studies of individual firms. Second, neoclassical economic theory is unsuitable as a basis for the analysis of regional economic dynamics, and a different framework, called adjustment theory, should be used in its place. Third, utilization of adjustment theory in the historical geographical domain leads directly to the deployment of both the concepts and methods of geographical information science as the foundation for empirical inquiry.

Download Full-text

ЉУДСКИ КАПИТАЛ И ЕНДОГЕНИ РАЗВОЈ РЕГИОНА

TEME ◽

10.22190/teme1701073c ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 073

Author(s):

Слободан Цветановић ◽

Војислав Илић ◽

Данијела Деспотовић

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Human Capital ◽

National Level ◽

Regional Economic Growth ◽

Regional Economic ◽

Highly Educated ◽

Different Types ◽

National Productivity ◽

The One ◽

The Impact

The paper explores the nature of the impact of human capital on regional economic growth. The focus is on arriving at a reasonable answer to the question of whether the nature of the impact of human capital on regional economic growth is conceptually identical to the nature of its impact on economic growth at the national level. The conclusion is that the character of relationship between human capital and economic growth of countries, on the one hand, and growth of the region, as part of the national territory, on the other hand, is fundamentally different. Specifically, the existence of two completely different types of impact of human capital, impact on regional economic growth and impact on the economic growth of countries is noted. In particular, human capital affects regional economic growth through the increase of national productivity, mainly through the manifestation of various forms of externalities. Furthermore, the impact of human capital on regional economic growth through migration mechanism is noted, particularly due to the migration of highly educated workers. These two impacts do not always have the same direction, because the externality spillover mechanisms in a specific region and labour mobility are not per se of complementary character. In cases where these two impacts coincide, certain regions grow dynamically, while in the situations where they do not coincide, the regions may economically stagnate.

Download Full-text