scholarly journals Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Randal J. Verbrugge ◽  
Saeed Zaman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Inflation Forecasting ◽  
Predictive Relationship

We examine the predictive relationship between various measures of inflation expectations and future inflation. We find that the expectations of professional economists and of businesses have tended to provide more accurate predictions of future inflation than the expectations of households and of financial market participants. However, the forecasts coming from a relatively simple and popular benchmark inflation forecasting model have historically been roughly as accurate as the expectations of businesses and professional economists.

Macro-Finance

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis X. Diebold ◽  
Glenn D. Rudebusch
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Factor Structure ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Research Directions ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Macro Finance

This chapter discusses a variety of arbitrage-free Nelson–Siegel (AFNS) macro-finance yield curve approaches. The AFNS factor structure provides a very useful framework for examining various macro-finance questions given the computational difficulties in extending finance-only affine arbitrage-free models. One application of the AFNS model, in Christensen et al. (2010c), produces estimates of the inflation expectations of financial market participants from prices of nominal and real bonds. A second macro-finance application of the AFNS model, provided in Christensen et al. (2009), investigates the effect of the new central bank liquidity facilities that were instituted during the financial crisis. The chapter concludes with a discussion of evolving research directions.

The Capital Market Authority Effectiveness in the Regulation of Financial Markets perspectives from the financial sector actors

2012 ◽  
Vol 02 (11) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Charles Kombo Okioga
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Financial Market Regulation ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
New Business

Capital Market Authority in Kenya is in a development phase in order to be effective in the regulation of the financial markets. The market participants and the regulators are increasingly adopting international standards in order to make the capital markets in sync with those of developed markets. New products are being introduced and new business lines are being established. The Capital Markets Authority (Regulator) is constantly reviewing existing regulations and recommending changes to regulate the market properly. Business lines and activities are being harmonized by market participants to provide a one stop solution in order to meet the financial and securities services needs of the investors. The convergence of business lines and activities of market intermediaries gives rise to the diversity of a firm’s business operations to meet multiplicity of regulations that its activities are subject to. The methodology used in this study was designed to examine the relationship between capital markets Authority effective regulation and the performance of the financial markets. The study used correlation design, the study population consisted of 30 employees in financial institutions regulated by Capital Markets Authority and 80 investors. The study found out that effective financial market regulation has a significant relationship with the financial market performance indicated by (r=0.571, p<0.01) and (r=0.716, p≤0.01, the study recommended a further research on the factors that hinder effective financial regulation by the Capital Markets Authority.

Investor Sentiment and Flows into Treasury Funds

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Fund Flows ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Relative Response ◽  
Financial Market Risk ◽  
Blue Chip

The author compares the relative response of Treasury fund flows to the sentiment-prone Michigan Survey of Inflation Expectations and to the Blue Chip Survey of Financial Forecasts, a professional forecast of inflation. The Treasury market is an ideal subject for examining whether or not sentiment affects flows: it is highly liquid, making it unlikely that it is hard to arbitrage, and inflation is the primary factor affecting its returns. Using mutual fund inflows into TIPs and Treasury mutual funds that occurred between January 1991 and June 2011, the author finds that the Michigan Survey is insignificantly related to flows into inflation-indexed TIPs and is positively related to flows into nominal Treasury funds. The Blue Chip Survey does not have incremental explanatory power. The evidence is consistent with a combination of a hedging motive and a flight to liquidity triggered by information in the Michigan Survey about households’ perception of financial market risk. The two motives reinforce each other in driving flows into nominal Treasury funds when the Michigan forecast of inflation is high, while they appear to cancel each other out in determining flows into the illiquid TIPS market.

scholarly journals FORMATION OF THE REGULATION OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY’S FINANCIAL SECTOR

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Sharavara
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Technological Development ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Financial Supervision ◽  
National Regulation ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Modern Economic ◽  
National Economies

An analysis of the applied forms of cross-sectoral approach to the organization of supervision and regulation of the financial sector of different types of national economies, including the Ukrainian one, is presented. Particular attention is paid to the role of the central bank in improving the coordination of regulators of the national financial market. It is determined that effective financial supervision, in the modern sense, should combine the performance of three key functions: macroprudential supervision, microprudential supervision and business integrity supervision. With technological development, the integration of financial sector segments and the emergence of complex financial products, the segmental core of regulation has been lost. One of the main current problems is to identify the risks posed by integrated financial instruments, financial corporations take them on, and also track the ways in which they spread. Institutional and sectoral models of financial supervision are analyzed. A common feature of institutional and functional approaches is the growing need to improve the coordination of national financial regulators and comprehensively increase its efficiency. The expediency of creating a macro-regulator in the conditions of modern economic systems is substantiated. The possibility of consolidated supervision is revealed, which eliminates interdepartmental conflict of interests, better control of transactions and cash flows. Peculiarities of macroregulators functioning in Great Britain, Australia, and the Netherlands have been studied. Developing a unified approach can increase the speed of response to identified threats and its adequacy, as well as reduce regulatory arbitrage by supervised organizations. The mega-regulator is able to provide due attention to the control of the integrity of business by financial market participants, protection of interests and awareness of market participants and consumers of financial services in comparison with the functional and institutional models. The priority system of national regulation of the financial sector for the Ukrainian economy is determined.

Using Financial Instruments

2019 ◽  
pp. 37-46
Author(s):  
Alan N. Rechtschaffen
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Financial Instrument ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Managing Risk ◽  
The Stability

Capital markets provide enterprises with the opportunity to access capital to maintain their level of business activity. Therefore, ensuring the stability of the capital markets and preventing systemic failure are paramount concerns of the Federal Reserve and other financial market regulators. Access to capital markets is facilitated through the use of financial instruments that allow risk to be negotiated among market participants. When using financial instruments to achieve goals, a corporation must be aware of several considerations: the value of the asset underlying the financial instrument, duties or obligations the corporation owes to the other party to the contract, the implications and “worst case scenario” of the performance of the financial instrument, the risk of the transaction, and how the specific transaction can achieve the corporation's goals. This chapter discusses goal-oriented investing, achieving investment goals, and managing risk.

scholarly journals How to regulate bitcoin? Decentralized regulation for a decentralized cryptocurrency

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Nabilou
Keyword(s):  
Distributed System ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Financial Regulation ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Use Cases ◽  
Policy Recommendation ◽  
Distributed Network ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Regulatory Architecture ◽  
Regulatory Strategy

Abstract Bitcoin is a distributed system. The dilemma it poses to the legal systems is that it is hardly possible to regulate a distributed network in a centralized fashion, as decentralized cryptocurrencies are antithetical to the existing centralized structure of monetary and financial regulation. This article proposes a more nuanced policy recommendation for regulatory intervention in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, which relies on a decentralized regulatory architecture built upon the existing regulatory infrastructure and makes use of the existing and emerging middlemen. It argues that instead of regulating the technology or the cryptocurrencies at the code or protocol layer, the regulation should target their use-cases. Such a regulatory strategy can be implemented through directing the edicts of regulation towards the middlemen and can be enforced by the existing financial market participants and traditional gatekeepers such as banks, payment service providers and exchanges, as well as large and centralized node operators and miners.

Part II The Financial Crisis of 2007–2011, 6 Market and Regulatory Failure

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mccormick Roger ◽  
Stears Chris
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Credit Rating Agencies ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Regulatory Failure

This chapter first discusses the origins of the financial crisis, highlighting practice of ‘packaging and selling’ credit risk by financial market participants that led up to the crisis. It argues that although, in retrospect, many aspects of that practice look very bad indeed, the idea that banks might originate a credit exposure and then transfer the credit risk attached to it to a third party was, before the financial crisis, considered to be part and parcel of sound risk management. The discussion then turns to credit-rating agencies. Analysis of the financial crisis and ‘what went wrong’ has shown that rating agencies were too generous with their rating of many of the structured products that contributed to the collapse.

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