scholarly journals Estimation of Impact of Quantitative Easing Policy on EUR/USD using behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 117-128
Author(s):  
A. A. Vinogradov
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Rate Model ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
European Central ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
The Us ◽  
Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The article examines the impact of the policy of the uSA quantitative easing and the euro area on the nominal EuR/ uSD exchange rate. After the economic crisis of 2008–2009, the policy of quantitative easing gained popularity among the world’s largest economies. The largest programs were implemented by the uS Federal Reserve (uS Federal Reserve System) and the European Central Bank (ECB). However, the impact of the actual purchase volume of securities on the EuR/uSD exchange rate within these policies has been little studied in modern literature. The author collected the data from 1999 to 2018 on the exchange rate, macroeconomic and market indicators, and calculated the monthly actual purchase volumes of securities under the asset purchase program of the united States and the euro area. The behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model was used. The linear model specification and the error correction model identified no significant impact of the ECB quantitative easing policy expressed in the actual purchase volume of securities. However, for some specifications, it has been proven that the increase in purchases of securities by the uS Federal Reserve leads to a weakening of the dollar against the euro. The cointegration test revealed a long-term dependence of the EuR/uSD exchange rate on the accumulated volumes of acquired assets. Thus, an increase in the purchase volume of securities led to a weakening of the dollar against the euro. The insignificant impact of the European Central Bank quantitative easing policy could have been caused by market expectations formed prior to the actual purchase of ECB securities in the market.

Estimation of fiscal rule impact on Russian ruble equilibrium exchange rate

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
D. A. Menshikh
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
Fiscal Rule ◽  
The Impact

This paper describes a new approach that makes it possible to assess the impact of foreign exchange interventions implemented under the fiscal rule on the Russian ruble equilibrium exchange rate. The essence of the approach is to quantify the impact of foreign exchange interventions carried out within the framework of the fiscal rule on the balance of supply and demand of foreign exchange, and to reflect this influence in macroeconomic models using the “effective” oil price indicator. The article describes in detail the calculation of this indicator. The advantage of using the “effective” oil price indicator compared to alternative methods lies in the efficiency (the ability to apply for monthly data), simplicity (the possibility of using for scenario forecasting of the exchange rate), as well as the flexibility of the method (the possibility of taking into account periods of suspension of the fiscal rule and deferred purchases). The current gap in the real effective exchange rate of Russian ruble was calculated based on the data for February 2008 — October 2019. The assessment of the contribution of the fiscal rule to the equilibrium value of the real exchange rate was about 2 pp., at the end of 2019 Russian ruble was overvalued.

scholarly journals Fundamental Modeling Exchange Rate using Genetic Algorithm: A Case Study of European Countries

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
pp. 352-359
Author(s):  
Saeed Rasekhi
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Mean Square Error ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Portfolio Balance ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are an adaptive heuristic search algorithm premised on the evolutionary ideas of natural selection and genetic. In this study we apply GAs for Fundamental Models of Exchange Rate Determination in exchange rate market. In this framework, we estimated absolute and relative purchasing power parity, Mundell-Fleming, sticky and flexible prices, equilibrium exchange rate and portfolio balance model as fundamental models for European Union’s Euro against the US Dollar using monthly data from January 1992 to December 2008. Then, we put these models into the genetic algorithm system for measuring their optimal weight for each model. These optimal weights have been measured according to four criteria i.e. R-squared (R2), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Based on obtained Results, it seems that for explaining of EU Euro against the US Dollar exchange rate behavior, equilibrium exchange rate and portfolio balance model are better than the other fundamental models.

scholarly journals Fundamentos del tipo de cambio real en Costa Rica (2001-2014)

Revista ABRA ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (54) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Raúl Fonseca Hernández ◽  
Nancy Rodríguez Ramos ◽  
Emil Martínez Arias
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate

El documento está orientado a profesionales de ciencias sociales con el objetivo de orientarles en la comprensión del comportamiento del Índice de Tipo de Cambio Real de Costa Rica (ITCER) en relación con sus fundamentos. Se utiliza el modelo teórico behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) para identificar y analizar los efectos en estas variables sobre el ITCER. Los seis indicadores analizados fueron: términos de intercambio, absorción fiscal, IED, tasa de interés real doméstica y productividad relativa de la economía. Estos explican adecuadamente el comportamiento del tipo de cambio real, pese a presentar una gran variabilidad. Se identifican claramente dos periodos en el comportamiento del ITCER: el primero (2001 y 2005), se presenta un periodo de depreciación, observándose posteriormente (2006 y 2014) un marcado proceso de apreciación en términos reales del colón costarricense.

scholarly journals On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270
Author(s):  
Klára Plecitá ◽  
Luboš Střelec
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Imbalances ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Exchange ◽  
Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate

This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with largest imbalances in 2010. Further the medium-run equilibrium exchange rates for Greece and Ireland are estimated applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach popularised by Clark and MacDonald (1998). In addition, the long-run equilibrium exchange rates are estimated using the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) model. Employing the BEER and PEER approaches on quarterly time series of real effective exchange rates (REER) from 1997: Q1 to 2010: Q4 we identify an undervaluation of the Greek and Irish REER around their entrance to the euro area. For the rest of the period analysed their REER is broadly in line with estimated BEER and PEER levels.

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