Estimativa de cheias em bacias hidrográficas com base em previsões de precipitação por conjunto

Bacias hidrográficas são normalmente suscetíveis a inundações devido à associação de fatores ambientais, climáticos e antrópicos. Dentre os métodos utilizados para mitigar os prejuízos provocados por inundações, o sistema de alerta contra cheias pode ser considerado como um dos mais efetivos, devido ao custo relativamente baixo. Neste contexto, o presente trabalho apresenta a avaliação de um modelo de previsão de vazão para os municípios de inseridos na bacia do rio Sapucaí, localizada na região sul do Estado de Minas Gerais. Para isso, é realizada a integração entre o modelo hidrológico MGB-IPH e o modelo atmosférico Eta. São utilizadas previsões de precipitação por conjunto do modelo Eta, que são assimiladas pelo modelo MGB-IPH para gerar previsões de vazão com antecedência de até 5 dias. Os resultados mostram que é possível obter previsões úteis para sistemas e alerta com até 3 dias de antecedência e os melhores resultados são para bacias com maior área de drenagem. Estimation of floods in river basins based on ensemble precipitation forecasts A B S T R A C TWatersheds are normally susceptible to flooding due to the association of environmental, climatic and anthropogenic factors. Among the methods used to mitigate damage caused by floods, the flood warning system can be considered one of the most effective because of the relatively low cost. In this context, the present work presents the evaluation of a flow forecasting model for the municipalities of the Sapucaí river basin, located in the southern region of the State of Minas Gerais. For this, the integration between the hydrological model MGB-IPH and the atmospheric model Eta. Ensemble precipitation forecasts of Eta model are used, which are assimilated by the MGB-IPH model to generate flow forecasts up to 5 days in advance. The results show that it is possible to obtain useful predictions for systems and alerts up to 3 days in advance and the best results are for basins with greater drainage area.

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A simple low-cost video-based surveillance system for a flash flood warning system

IOP Conference Series Materials Science and Engineering ◽

10.1088/1757-899x/567/1/012043 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 567 ◽

pp. 012043

Author(s):

H I R Mosey ◽

D P Pandara ◽

M D Bobanto ◽

H S Sangian

Keyword(s):

Surveillance System ◽

Flash Flood ◽

Low Cost ◽

Warning System ◽

Flood Warning ◽

Flood Warning System

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Development and Testing of a Low-cost Water Level Sensor and a Mobile based Real-time Flood Warning System for the Flash Flood Prone North Eastern part of Bangladesh

International Journal of Sensors Wireless Communications and Control ◽

10.2174/2210327910999200614000455 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 ◽

Author(s):

Nova Ahmed ◽

Md. Sirajul Islam ◽

Sifat Kalam ◽

Farzana Islam ◽

Nabila Chowdhury ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Real Time ◽

Flash Flood ◽

Low Cost ◽

Warning System ◽

Outdoor Environment ◽

Flood Warning ◽

North Eastern ◽

Flood Warning System ◽

North Eastern Part

Background: The North-Eastern part of Bangladesh is suffering from flash flood very frequently, causing colossal damage to life and properties, especially the vast croplands. A distributed sensing system can monitor the water level on a continuous basis to warn people near the riverbank beforehand and reduce the damage largely. However, the required communication infrastructure is not available in most of the remote rural areas in a developing country like Bangladesh. Objective: This study intends to develop a low-cost sensor based warning system, customizing to the Bangladesh context. Method: The system utilizes a low-cost ultrasound based sensor device, a lightweight mobile phone based server, low-cost IoT sensing nodes, and a central server for continuous monitoring of river stage data along with the provision of storage and long-term data analytics. Results: A flash flood warning system developed afterward with the sensors, mobile-based server, and appropriate webbased interfaces. The device was tested for some environmental conditions in the lab and deployed it later in the outdoor conditions for short-term periods. Conclusion: Overall, the warning system performed well in the lab as well as the outdoor environment, with the ability to detect water level at reasonable accuracy and transmit data to the server in real time. Some minor shortcomings still noted with the scope for improvements, which are in the way to improve further.

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Advances and challenges of the French operational flash flood warning system, Vigicrues Flash

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16063 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Julie Demargne ◽

Catherine Fouchier ◽

Didier Organde ◽

Olivier Piotte ◽

Anne Belleudy

Keyword(s):

Hydrological Model ◽

Flash Flood ◽

Warning System ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Parameters Estimation ◽

Flood Events ◽

Time Step ◽

Flood Warning ◽

Flood Warning System ◽

High Flood

Since March 2017, the French flash flood warning system, Vigicrues Flash, provides warnings for small-to-medium ungauged basins for about 10,000 municipalities to help emergency services better mitigate potential impacts of ongoing and upcoming flash flood events. Set up by the Ministry in charge of Environment, this system complements flood warnings produced by the Vigicrues procedure for French monitored rivers. Based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA, Vigicrues Flash currently ingests radar-gauge rainfall grids at a 1-km resolution into a conceptual distributed rainfall-runoff model. Real-time peak discharge estimated on any river cell are then compared to regionalized flood quantiles (estimated with the same hydrological model). Automated warnings are issued for rivers exceeding the high flood and very high flood thresholds (defined as years of return periods) and for the associated municipalities that might be impacted. This service shares a web platform for the dissemination and communication of early warnings and hazard map displays with the APIC heavy rainfall warning service from M&#233;t&#233;o-France. To better anticipate flash flood events and extend the coverage of the Vigicrues Flash service, the hydrological modeling is being enhanced within the SMASH (Spatially-distributed Modelling and ASsimilation for Hydrology) platform developed by INRAE (formerly Irstea). For the upcoming operational update of Vigicrues Flash, a simplified distributed hydrologic model is continuously run at a 15-minute time step and a 1-km resolution. It includes only 2 parameters per cell, controlling respectively a production reservoir and a transfer reservoir from the G&#233;nie Rural (GR) conceptual models. Cross-validation and regionalization of these two parameters have been improved to better account for basins spatial heterogeneities while optimizing flash flood warning performance. Evaluation results for 921 French basins on the 2007-2019 period show improvements in terms of flash flood event detection and effective warning lead time. Current developments aim to integrate a cell-to-cell routing component and improve parameters estimation at the national scale with the variational calibration schemes recently developed on the SMASH platform by Jay-Allemand et al. (2020). Challenges of including high-resolution precipitation nowcasts and accounting for the hydrometeorological uncertainties via data assimilation and ensemble forecasting are also discussed based on ongoing SMASH research.&#160;Jay-Allemand, M., Javelle, P., Gejadze, I., Arnaud, P., Malaterre, P.-O., Fine, J.-A., and Organde, D.: On the potential of variational calibration for a fully distributed hydrological model: application on a Mediterranean catchment, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5519&#8211;5538, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5519-2020, 2020.

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Application of the HBV hydrological model in a flash flood case in Slovenia

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-10-2713-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 2713-2725 ◽

Cited By ~ 29

Author(s):

M. G. Grillakis ◽

I. K. Tsanis ◽

A. G. Koutroulis

Keyword(s):

Hydrological Model ◽

Flash Flood ◽

Warning System ◽

Weather Forecast ◽

Radar Data ◽

Added Value ◽

Distributed Hydrological Model ◽

Flood Warning ◽

Forecast Models ◽

Flood Warning System

Abstract. An atmospheric depression passed over northwest Slovenia on 18 September 2007 producing precipitation that exceeded 300 mm/d and a 100-year return period runoff in Zelezniki tributary. The resultant flash flood in the study area, which consisted of five basins, was simulated with the conceptual distributed hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning). The model was calibrated and validated with past rainfall – runoff events with satisfactory results producing values of Nash – Sutcliffe coefficient between 0.82 and 0.96. The validated model was applied to the flash flood case with stream gauge failure, driven by spatiotemporal precipitation produced by a set of rain gauges and radar data. The model delivered satisfactory results on three out of five basin outlets while the other two had stream gauge failure during the event. The internal basin dynamics of the most affected area in Zelezniki, was successfully tested in eight of its sub-basins by comparing the peak discharges with the ones evaluated by the slope-conveyance method during a detailed intensive post event campaign. The added value of this method is in the reduced uncertainty in peak discharge estimation and event interpretation and in an effective flash flood warning system for the study area when it is combined with radar nowcasts and operational high resolution short range weather forecast models.

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Feedback structure and EFAS flood warning verification for the rivers in the northwestern Russian Federation

Hydrometeorological research and forecasting ◽

10.37162/2618-9631-2020-4-96-109 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

pp. 96-109

Author(s):

A.V. Romanov ◽

◽

M.V. Yachmenova ◽

Keyword(s):

Russian Federation ◽

Forecast Accuracy ◽

Warning System ◽

General Description ◽

System Quality ◽

Flood Warning ◽

Forecast Lead Time ◽

Feedback Structure ◽

The Russian Federation ◽

Flood Warning System

Based on the example of flood warning data provided by EFAS for the territory of Northwestern Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring in 2018-2020, the structure of the systematized issues of the EFAS portal is analyzed. The issues determine a feedback for the year-round monitoring of the accuracy of flood forecasting using the LISFLOOD base model, as well as its calibration. Several most important feedback sections are highlighted, that allow improving significantly a procedure for the quantitative and qualitative differentiated assessment of short- and medium-range flood forecasts. Using the results of the numerical analysis, a general description of the EFAS flood warning system quality and the prospects for the participation of the Russian Federation in it are given. Keywords: flooding, hydrological forecasts, forecast lead time, feedback, forecast accuracy

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