Experience in developing a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin

An attempt is made to develop a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin, to identify the impact of the distribution of sea surface temperature and geopotential height in the informative regions at the levels H100 and H500 over the Northern Hemisphere on the river ice breakup. The location and boundaries of the informative regions in the fields of H100 and H500 were revealed by the discriminant analysis, the EOF expansion coefficients of the fields of anomalies of monthly mean values of H100 and H500 for January and February and the anomalies of monthly mean sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific were used as potential predictors. The stepwise regression analysis allowed deriving good and satisfactory (S/σ = 0.45–0.73) complex prognostic equations for forecasting the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin. The essential influence of H100 and H500 geopotential height fields and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific in January and February on the river ice breakup time is revealed. It is proposed to improve the method by considering the impact of air temperature, maximum ice thickness per winter, and other indirect characteristics on the processes of river ice breakup in the Vyatka River basin. Keywords: ice regime, long-range forecast, river ice breakup, expansion coefficients, geopotential height fields, spring ice phenomena, energy-active zones of the oceans, complex prognostic equation

Estimates of the Earth surface influence on the accuracy of numerical prediction of air temperature in Belarus using the WRF model

The spatial structure of land use and biophysical characteristics of land surface (albedo, leaf index, and vegetation cover) are updated using the GLASS (Global Land Surface Satellite) and GLC2019 (Global Land Cover, 2019) modern satellite databases for mesoscale numerical weather prediction with the WRF model for the territory of Belarus. The series of WRF-based numerical experiments was performed to verify the influence of the updated characteristics on the forecast quality for some difficult to predict winter cases. The model was initialized by the GFS (Global Forecast System, NCEP) global numerical weather prediction model. It is shown that the use of high-resolution land use data in the WRF and the consideration of the new albedo and leaf index distribution over the territory of Belarus can reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of short-range (to 48 hours) forecasts of surface air temperature by 16–33% as compared to the GFS. The RMSE of the temperature forecast for the weather stations in Belarus for a forecast lead time of 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours decreased on average by 0.40°С (19%), 0.35°С (10%), 0.68°С (23%), and 0.56°С (15%), respectively. The most significant decrease in RMSE of the numerical forecast of temperature (up to 2.1 °С) was obtained for the daytime (for a lead time of 12 and 36 hours), when positive feedbacks between albedo and temperature of the land surface are manifested most. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, WRF, digital land surface model, albedo, leaf area index, forecast model validation

Abnormal aerosol air pollution in Moscow near the local anthropogenic source in July 2021

The paper analyzes the composition of surface aerosol close to the local intense anthropogenic source of pollution associated with the active phase of demolition of multistorey buildings in the center of Moscow. An abnormal increase in the daytime PM10 aerosol particle concentration to 5 MPC for daily values and to 14 MPC for maximum single values was reinforced by unfavorable meteorological conditions in the middle of July 2021. Preliminary estimation of the power of the dust aerosol source and its effect on the aerosol air pollution in nearby areas of the city is performed. The extreme and background values of the aerosol mass concentration, its elemental composition and particle size distribution during this period are determined. It is necessary to take into account such point pollutant sources in estimating and forecasting environmental conditions in a densely populated city. Keywords: surface aerosol, local anthropogenic source, Moscow, aerosol mass concentration, elemental composition, meteorological conditions

Formation conditions of an ice storm in Vladivostok in November 2020

Synoptic conditions for the formation of an unprecedented ice storm with the generation of long-lived high-intensity glaze ice on the vast territory in Primorsky Krai are investigated. The leading role of the strong extension of the layer with positive temperature towards the cold air mass and the existence of two-way temperature advection in the lower troposphere are shown. It is shown that the long-term preservation of glaze ice on the territory of the region was associated with the movement of the southern cyclone to the east and the arrival of cold air masses from the continent. Experiments were implemented to simulate freezing precipitation using the WRF-ARW mesoscale model. The simulation results made it possible to obtain more detailed data on the vertical structure of the atmosphere during the formation of freezing precipitation and to fill in the missing data for analysis. Keywords: severe weather events, ice accretion, glaze ice, freezing rain, ice pellets, numerical weather prediction, WRF-ARW

The influence of the COVID-19 first wave on the European ecosystem

Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, 2021, no. 4 (382), pp. 112-133. The results of analytical studies are presented, which show that restrictive measures for reduction of SARS-CoV-2 propagation speed and the incidence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the territory of Western Europe and the Russian Federation have led to a significant reduction of anthropogenic load on the natural environment and a considerable improvement of environmental conditions for the main types of contaminants. At the same time there is a dramatic growth of total ozone in the troposphere during the period of restrictions almost for all studied territories. It is revealed that after finishing the restrictive measures the level of air contamination reached its initial point: by September in Western Europe and by October in the European part of Russia. The calculations demonstrated that poor air quality aggravates the consequences of COVID-19, and a significant contribution is made by the PM2.5 concentration of fine solid particles, which can penetrate deeper into the human lungs and exacerbate the course of respiratory diseases. Keywords: COVID-19, ecology, tropospheric conditions, satellite information, morbidity level and air quality

Experience in developing a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin

An attempt is made to develop a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin, to identify the impact of the distribution of sea surface temperature and geopotential height in the informative regions at the levels H100 and H500 over the Northern Hemisphere on the river ice breakup. The location and boundaries of the informative regions in the fields of H100 and H500 were revealed by the discriminant analysis, the EOF expansion coefficients of the fields of anomalies of monthly mean values of H100 and H500 for January and February and the anomalies of monthly mean sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific were used as potential predictors. The stepwise regression analysis allowed deriving good and satisfactory (S/σ = 0.45–0.73) complex prognostic equations for forecasting the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin. The essential influence of H100 and H500 geopotential height fields and the spatial distribution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific in January and February on the river ice breakup time is revealed. It is proposed to improve the method by considering the impact of air temperature, maximum ice thickness per winter, and other indirect characteristics on the processes of river ice breakup in the Vyatka River basin. Keywords: ice regime, long-range forecast, river ice breakup, expansion coefficients, geopotential height fields, spring ice phenomena, energy-active zones of the oceans, complex prognostic equation

Overview of spatial verification methods and their application to ensemble forecasting

State-of-the-art high-resolution NWP models simulate mesoscale systems with a high degree of detail, with large amplitudes and high gradients of fields of weather variables. Higher resolution leads to the spatial and temporal error growth and to a well-known double penalty problem. To solve this problem, the spatial verification methods have been developed over the last two decades, which ignore moderate errors (especially in the position), but can still evaluate the useful skill of a high-resolution model. The paper refers to the updated classification of spatial verification methods, briefly describes the main methods, and gives an overview of the international projects for intercomparison of the methods. Special attention is given to the application of the spatial approach to ensemble forecasting. Popular software packages are considered. The Russian translation is proposed for the relevant English terms. Keywords: high-resolution models, verification, double penalty, spatial methods, ensemble forecasting, object-based methods

The influence of the COVID-19 first wave on the European ecosystem

The results of analytical studies are presented, which show that restrictive measures for reduction of SARS-CoV-2 propagation speed and the incidence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the territory of Western Europe and the Russian Federation have led to a significant reduction of anthropogenic load on the natural environment and a considerable improvement of environmental conditions for the main types of contaminants. At the same time there is a dramatic growth of total ozone in the troposphere during the period of restrictions almost for all studied territories. It is revealed that after finishing the restrictive measures the level of air contamination reached its initial point: by September in Western Europe and by October in the European part of Russia. The calculations demonstrated that poor air quality aggravates the consequences of COVID-19, and a significant contribution is made by the PM2.5 concentration of fine solid particles, which can penetrate deeper into the human lungs and exacerbate the course of respiratory diseases. Keywords: COVID-19, ecology, tropospheric conditions, satellite information, morbidity level and air quality

Analysis of air pollution in Primorsky Krai in 2019-2020 according to GMAO/NASA satellite monitoring

The results of modeling variations in atmospheric pollutants over Primorsky Krai in 2019 and 2020 based on GMAO/NASA satellite monitoring data are analyzed. It is shown that average annual concentrations of pollutants in 2020 decreased as compared to 2019: by 20–35% for sulfur dioxide; by 5–20% for sulfates; by 8–20% for carbon monoxide; by 25–40 % for particulate matter PM (1, 2.5, and 10 μm). One of the reasons for the air pollution decline in Primorsky Krai in 2020 is the reduction of anthropogenic load in the context of a decrease in industrial activity and traffic flows both in Primorye and in the adjacent areas of China. Episodes of high pollution in 2019 were formed under influence of the transboundary transport of polluted air masses. Keywords: air pollution, aerosol and chemical elements, transboundary transport, satellite monitoring, Primorsky Krai

Overview of current and expected seasonal climatic anomalies for the winter 2021/2022 with their possible impact on the economy, as estimated by the meteorological services of the CIS countries

Based on assessments of the meteorological services of the CIS countries, the skill scores of the consensus forecast for the territory of Northern Eurasia for the summer of 2021 are presented. The results of monitoring circulation patterns in the stratosphere and troposphere over the past summer season are discussed. Climate monitoring and seasonal forecasting results for the current situation are presented. A probabilistic consensus forecast for air temperature and precipitation is presented for the upcoming winter season 2021/2022 in Northern Eurasia. Possible consequences of the impact of the expected anomalies of meteorological parameters on the economy sectors and social life are discussed. Keywords: North Eurasian Climate Forum, North Eurasian Climate Center, consensus forecast, air temperature, precipitation, large-scale atmospheric circulation, hydrodynamic models, sea surface temperature, impacts