2013 ◽  
Vol 347-350 ◽  
pp. 2590-2595 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng Zhai ◽  
Shu Zhong Lin

Aiming at the limitations of traditional reliability analysis theory in multi-state system, a method for reliability modeling and assessment of a multi-state system based on Bayesian Network (BN) is proposed with the advantages of uncertain reasoning and describing multi-state of event. Through the case of cell production line system, in this paper we will discuss how to establish and construct a multi-state system model based on Bayesian network, and how to apply the prior probability and posterior probability to do the bidirectional inference analysis, and directly calculate the reliability indices of the system by means of prior probability and Conditional Probability Table (CPT) . Thereby we can do the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the multi-state system reliability, identify the weak links of the system, and achieve assessment of system reliability.


2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Salman Al Farisi ◽  
Rukmi Sari Hartati ◽  
I Wayan Sukerayasa

The need for electricity in this global era is increasing, so that a more reliable electrical system is needed. A reliable system cannot be separated from interference, so there needs to be a system reliability analysis and power loss to the feeder by configuring the network. This research was conducted to find the reliability index value in the form of interference frequency and duration of interference (SAIFI and SAIDI). In one Tabanan feeder the results obtained exceed the standard so reconfiguration is performed Based on the analysis obtained before reconfiguration, the reliability index for SAIFI is 6,7456 (failure / year) and SAIDI is 11,4767 (hour / year) and power loss by 6,27 %. After reconfiguration of Tabanan feeder, the reliability index was better, for SAIFI is 5.2475 (disturbance / year) and SAIDI is 9,8798 (hour / year), the power loss was 2.82%. Sanggulan feeder is a new feeder reconfiguration result from Tabanan feeder, where the analysis was carried out to find out the reliability index of Sanggulan feeder, it was obtained the SAIFI value of 4.5753 (disturbance / year) and SAIDI of 9.5297 (hour / year) and power loss of 4,80%.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document