The article examines the features of the economic development of Russia since 1887 by growth and risk parameters. The development risk was measured using the standard deviation of the annual growth rates of real GDP. Progressive, regressive, conservative, and aggressive development is proposed to determine according to the changes in growth and risk. The authors have analyzed the process of development under individual governments, as well as in general for the imperial, socialist, and post-Soviet periods, with the emphasis in the last two Stalinist and post-Stalinist, liberal and patriotic periods, respectively. Progressive changes in economic development are revealed: Stolypin reforms, industrialization and the “vertical of power”; regressive: civil war, Khrushchev reforms, perestroika, liberalization, and modernization; conservative: Kosygin reforms and “nationalization of the elite”. Except for opportunistic growth and risk surges 1911-1913 and 1998-2000, no aggressive developmental periods with identifiable institutional causes were found. The repetitive development cycle of the socialist and post-Soviet periods is shown. The conclusion is made about the greater authenticity of the Russian culture of the socialist development model and the least of the liberal ones, as well as the need to develop post-industrial development institutions that are authentic to the Russian culture for their application after the predicted institutional crisis.
Analysis and Forecasting of Ukraine's Economic Development Cycle
