scholarly journals Sovereign Debt Restructuring: A Modest Proposal

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. p8
Author(s):  
Colin Ellis

Many sovereigns, including weaker credits, have taken on substantial debt during the COVID-19 pandemic. This raises the prospect of future defaults and sovereign restructurings, which will be informed by debt-sustainability analysis. But when analyzing notable recent sovereign defaults, we find a pattern of serially correlated errors: the analysis at the time of the restructuring is too optimistic about future sovereign debt dynamics. In light of this, I propose that future sustainability analysis should be based on more pessimistic expectations. In turn, this implies that sovereign creditors should face larger losses in future restructurings.

Author(s):  
Andrea Consiglio ◽  
Stavros A. Zenios

AbstractDebt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for risk management in restructuring sovereign debt. The scenario dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio are used to define a tail risk measure, termed


Author(s):  
Martin Guzman ◽  
Daniel Heymann

AbstractThis paper reviews the IMF DSA (Debt Sustainability Analysis) framework. We first examine the concept of debt sustainability, and argue that the evaluation exercise necessarily entails putting into question market expectations embodied in yield spreads. When the views of the analyst on the capacity of debt repayment differ from the ones reflected in market interest rate premiums, the use of market interest rates for assessing debt sustainability leads to an inconsistency that will in turn bias the assessment. We then show that IMF projections for assessing debt sustainability have been repeatedly biased, which may have contributed to distort the timing of sovereign debt restructurings and the consequent processes of renegotiation. We conclude with a discussion on how the existing DSA framework could be improved.


Author(s):  
C. Randall Henning

Greece posed the greatest challenge among the program countries, while Cyprus, linked to Greece through the banking system and debt restructuring, was the smallest of the country programs. The second Greek program was accompanied by substantial debt relief, but the process of granting it exposed sharp disagreements within the regime complex for crisis finance. The IMF and some euro-area member states advocated private-sector involvement, but split on the sustainability of the remaining official claims on Greece, with the Fund using its debt sustainability analysis as leverage. The case of Cyprus demonstrates that the IMF can be influential even if it contributes a relatively small share of the financing, when it is backed by key creditor states. In both cases, despite substantive conflict, key European creditors adhered faithfully to including the IMF and mediated among the institutions when they became deadlocked.


Policy Papers ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 (35) ◽  
Author(s):  

his paper reviews the recent application of the Fund’s policies and practices on sovereign debt restructuring. Specifically, the paper: • recaps in a holistic manner the various policies and practices that underpin the Fund's legal and policy framework for sovereign debt restructuring, including on debt sustainability, market access, financing assurances, arrears, private sector involvement (PSI), official sector involvement (OSI), and the use of legal instruments; • reviews how this framework has been applied in the context of Fund-supported programs and highlights the issues that have emerged in light of recent experience with debt restructuring; and • describes recent initiatives in various fora aimed at promoting orderly sovereign debt restructuring, highlighting differences with the Fund’s existing framework. Based on this stocktaking, the paper identifies issues that could be considered in further depth in follow-up work by staff to assess whether the Fund’s framework for debt restructuring should be adapted: • first, debt restructurings have often been too little and too late, thus failing to re-establish debt sustainability and market access in a durable way. Overcoming these problems likely requires action on several fronts, including (i) increased rigor and transparency of debt sustainability and market access assessments, (ii) exploring ways to prevent the use of Fund resources to simply bail out private creditors, and (iii) measures to alleviate the costs associated with restructurings; • second, while creditor participation has been adequate in recent restructurings, the current contractual, market-based approach to debt restructuring is becoming less potent in overcoming collective action problems, especially in pre-default cases. In response, consideration could be given to making the contractual framework more effective, including through the introduction of more robust aggregation clauses into international sovereign bonds bearing in mind the inter-creditor equity issues that such an approach may raise. The Fund may also consider ways to condition use of its financing more tightly to the resolution of collective action problems; • third, the growing role and changing composition of official lending call for a clearer framework for official sector involvement, especially with regard to non-Paris Club creditors, for which the modality for securing program financing commitments could be tightened; and • fourth, although the collaborative, good-faith approach to resolving external private arrears embedded in the lending into arrears (LIA) policy remains the most promising way to regain market access post-default, a review of the effectiveness of the LIA policy is in order in light of recent experience and the increased complexity of the creditor base. Consideration could also be given to extending the LIA policy to official arrears.


Significance The tranche will meet debt repayments falling due until end-2016. The prospect has been held out of debt restructuring if programme commitments are fulfilled. The IMF, which has so far refused participation in the third programme, has tentatively agreed to consider it, subject to another debt sustainability analysis (DSA) before year-end. Impacts Business will be helped by the settlement of a large part of outstanding government arrears. The injection of liquidity will help offset the dampening effect on GDP growth caused by required tax and pension reforms. Deposits with commercial banks will remain frozen for at least a year, a huge brake on private consumption and investment.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2/2020 (14) ◽  
pp. 47-67
Author(s):  
Tamon Asonuma ◽  
◽  
Michael G. Papaioannou ◽  
Eriko Togo ◽  
Bert van Selm ◽  
...  

This paper examines the causes, process, and outcome of Belize’s 2016–17 sovereign debt restructuring – its third episode in last 10 years. As was the case in the earlier two restructurings, in 2006–07 and in 2012–13, the 2016–17 debt restructuring was executed through collaborative engagement with creditors outside an IMF-supported program. While providing liquidity relief and partially addressing long-term debt sustainability concerns, the restructuring will need to be underpinned by ambitious fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms to secure durable gains and avoid future debt distress situations.


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