Asymmetrical update of beliefs about future outcomes is driven by outcome valence and social group membership

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihai Dricu ◽  
Stephanie Bührer ◽  
Dominik Andreas Moser ◽  
Tatjana Aue
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Negative Events ◽  
Negative Outcomes ◽  
Social Stereotypes ◽  
Outcome Valence ◽  
The Future ◽  
Group A ◽  
Future Outcomes

People are eager to update their beliefs, such as a perceived risk, if they receive information that is better than expected but are reluctant to do so when the evidence is unfavourable. When estimating the likelihood of future outcomes, this phenomenon of asymmetrical belief update helps generate and maintain personal optimism bias. In this study, we investigated whether asymmetrical belief update also extends to estimating the future of other individuals. Specifically, we prompted respondents to assess the perceived likelihood of three social targets experiencing future positive and negative events: an in-group, a mild out-group and an extreme out-group. We then provided the respondents with feedback about the base rates of those events in the general population and prompted them to re-assess their initial estimates for all social targets. Respondents expected more positive than negative outcomes for the in-group and the mild out-group, but more negative outcomes for the extreme out-group. We also found an asymmetrical update of beliefs contingent on the valence of the future event and the social target. For negative outcomes, respondents updated more following good news than bad news, particularly for the mild out-group. For positive outcomes, respondents equally updated their beliefs following good news and bad news for the in-group and the mild out-group. However, they updated their beliefs significantly more following bad news than good news for the extreme out-group member. Our data thus reveal the strong and robust influence of social stereotypes on future expectancies for others.

The future of the management of projects in the 2030s

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 242-266 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Walker ◽  
Beverley Lloyd-Walker
Keyword(s):  
Project Managers ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Workplace Environment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Routine Work ◽  
The Future ◽  
Management Project ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore recent literature on the impact of changes in the workplace environment and projected trends through to the year 2030. This allows the authors to identify and discuss what key trends are changing the nature of project organising work. The authors aim to identify what knowledge and which skills, attributes and experiences will be most likely valued and needed in 2030. Design/methodology/approach This paper is essentially a reflective review and is explorative in nature. The authors focus on several recent reports published in the UK and Australia that discuss the way that the future workforce will adapt and prepare for radical changes in the workplace environment. The authors focus on project organising work and the changing workplace knowledge, skills, attributes and experience (KSAE) needs of those working in project teams in 2030 and beyond. The authors draw upon existing KSAE literature including findings from a study undertaken into the KSAEs of project alliance managers working in a highly collaborative form of project delivery. Findings The analysis suggests that there is good and bad news about project workers prospects in 2030. The good news is that for those working in non-routine roles their work will be more interesting and rewarding than is the case for today. The bad news is that for workers in routine work roles, they will be replaced by advanced digital technology. Research limitations/implications Few, if any, papers published in the project organising literature speculate about what this discipline may look like or what KSAEs will be valued and needed. Practical implications This paper opens up a debate about how project management/project organising work will be undertaken in future and what skills and expertise will be required. It also prompts project managers to think about how they will craft their careers in 2030 in response to expected work environment demands. This will have professional and learning implications. Social implications The issue of the future workplace environment is highly relevant to the social context. Originality/value This paper is about a projected future some 12 years onward from today. It bridges a gap in any future debate about how project organising jobs may change and how they will be delivered in the 2030s.

scholarly journals Good news, bad news: a snapshot of conditions at small-market newspapers in Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
April Lindgren ◽  
Brent Jolly ◽  
Cara Sabatini ◽  
Christina Wong
Keyword(s):  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Digital Tools ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Small Market ◽  
The Future ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
News Literacy ◽  
Regulatory Organization

[Para. 1 of Introduction]: We set out with this survey to find out about conditions at small-market newspapers in Canada and to explore the sector’s prospects at a time when newspapers in general face major challenges. The survey, which was in the field from February 5, 2018, to April 25, 2018, is a joint initiative by the Local News Research Project run by Ryerson University journalism professor April Lindgren, and the non-profit National NewsMedia Council, a voluntary self-regulatory organization that promotes editorial standards and news literacy. Together, we sought answers to questions about workload; the use of digital tools; how employees stay up to date with ethical, technological and other changes; and how publications engage with audiences. Respondents were also asked for their views on the future and industry challenges and opportunities.

scholarly journals Good news, bad news: a snapshot of conditions at small-market newspapers in Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
April Lindgren ◽  
Brent Jolly ◽  
Cara Sabatini ◽  
Christina Wong
Keyword(s):  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Digital Tools ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Small Market ◽  
The Future ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
News Literacy ◽  
Regulatory Organization

[Para. 1 of Introduction]: We set out with this survey to find out about conditions at small-market newspapers in Canada and to explore the sector’s prospects at a time when newspapers in general face major challenges. The survey, which was in the field from February 5, 2018, to April 25, 2018, is a joint initiative by the Local News Research Project run by Ryerson University journalism professor April Lindgren, and the non-profit National NewsMedia Council, a voluntary self-regulatory organization that promotes editorial standards and news literacy. Together, we sought answers to questions about workload; the use of digital tools; how employees stay up to date with ethical, technological and other changes; and how publications engage with audiences. Respondents were also asked for their views on the future and industry challenges and opportunities.

Conclusion: The Future of Terrorism

2018 ◽  
pp. 198-210
Author(s):  
Max Abrahms
Keyword(s):  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Good News ◽  
Think Tank ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Militant Groups ◽  
The One

ISIS paid a steep, albeit foreseeable, price for inverting these rules for rebels. Its playbook of broadcasting the indiscriminate attacks instilled terror around the world, but quickly united the world against the group. In countless media interviews, think tank pundits repeated the conventional wisdom that ISIS was following a brilliant script—unaware that it was the opposite to the one that triumphant militant groups have successfully followed. Militant leaders have a choice. They can maximize terror as political losers or forgo the terror and possibly win. The good news is that moderation pays. The bad news is that extremism will nonetheless continue. This chapter explains why terrorism will persist despite its ineffectiveness and suggests ways to reverse this deadly trend.

Do you want the good news or the bad news first?

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela Legg ◽  
Kate Sweeny
Keyword(s):  
Bad News ◽  
Good News
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