A Chinese Second Demographic Transition? A Holistic Approach to Family Life Courses

Family formation in China has undergone dramatic changes. Despite increasing academic attention, few studies have taken a holistic approach to study cohort change in Chinese family life courses. In this study, we assess how family life course patterns, complexity, and diversity have changed across birth cohorts. Moreover, we evaluate whether changing norms, economic constraints, or institutional reforms are driving cohort differences. Data from the China Family Panel Studies and sequence analysis are applied to identify family life course patterns and to calculate sequence complexity and diversity. While we found a shift in family life course patterns across nearly a century of birth cohorts, there is no evidence that Chinese family lives have become more complex or diverse. To the contrary, our results demonstrate that family life courses have become less complex and are relatively standardized around marriage and a single child. We find that factors associated with economic constraints – not ideational change or institutional reforms – account for a considerable portion of cross-cohort variation in diversity and complexity. Rather than a second demographic transition, Chinese family demographic behaviour is marked by continuity despite change.