Environmental niche modelling as tool for pest risk assessment

The article reviews the concept and technology of pest risk assessment for the spread of quarantine species based on ecological and geographical analysis and ecological niche modeling. Using a quarantine species Ipomoea hederacea (L.) Jacq. as an example, we calculated the ecological requirements of the species. The main ecological factors limiting the spread of I. hederacea were determined and the ecological amplitudes of the species in relation to each factor limiting its distribution were quantitatively estimated. We identified ecologically suitable habitats and compiled a map of the ecological-geographical niche of the species using specially created environmental maps based on the obtained data of the ecological limits of the species. Using the map of the ecological-geographical niche, the I. hederacea distribution risk in the regions of the Russian Federation was estimated. Similar maps can be used for basis of quantitative as well as targeted risk assessment of penetration and establishment of harmful organisms. Obtained information will be useful to compile lists of quarantine species, estimate the potential areas of geographic distribution of pests into Russian Federation, and make decisions for introduction of effective phytosanitary measures to prevent the penetration of these invasive organisms. It can also be used as the basis for organizing and conducting phytosanitary monitoring in the Russian Federation.