Development of a large-scale traffic simulation model for hurricane evacuation : a case study of Virginia's Hampton Roads region

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siddharth Sharma
Author(s):  
Zenghao Hou ◽  
Joyoung Lee

This paper proposes an innovative multi-thread stochastic optimization approach for the calibration of microscopic traffic simulation models. Combining Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) sampling and the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, the proposed approach, namely the Quasi-Monte Carlo Particle Swarm (QPS) calibration method, is designed to boost the searching process without prejudice to the calibration accuracy. Given the search space constructed by the combinations of simulation parameters, the QMC sampling technique filters the searching space, followed by the multi-thread optimization through the PSO algorithm. A systematic framework for the implementation of the QPS QMC-initialized PSO method is developed and applied for a case study dealing with a large-scale simulation model covering a 6-mile stretch of Interstate Highway 66 (I-66) in Fairfax, Virginia. The case study results prove that the proposed QPS method outperforms other methods utilizing Genetic Algorithm and Latin Hypercube Sampling in achieving faster convergence to obtain an optimal calibration parameter set.


1996 ◽  
Vol 07 (02) ◽  
pp. 133-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. RICKERT ◽  
P. WAGNER

This work is part of our ongoing effort to design and implement a traffic simulation application capable of handling realistic problem sizes in multiple real-time. Our traffic simulation model includes multi-lane vehicular traffic and individual route-plans. On a 16-CPU SGI Power Challenger and a 12-CPU SUN workstation-cluster we have reached real-time for the whole German Autobahn network.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4444
Author(s):  
Ding Wang ◽  
Kaan Ozbay ◽  
Zilin Bian

In many large-scale evacuations, public agencies often have limited resources to evacuate all citizens, especially vulnerable populations such as the elderly and disabled people, and the demand for additional transportation means for evacuation can be high. The recent development of ride-sourcing companies can be leveraged in evacuations as an additional and important resource in future evacuation planning. In contrast to public transit, the availability of ride-sourcing drivers is highly dependent on the price, since surge pricing will occur when the demand is high and the supply is low. The key challenge is thus to find the balance between evacuation demand and driver supply. Based on the two-sided market theory, we propose mathematical modeling and analysis strategies that can help balance demand and supply through a pricing mechanism designed for ride-sourcing services in evacuation. A subsidy is considered in the model such that lower-income and vulnerable individuals could benefit from ride-sourcing services. A hypothetical hurricane evacuation scenario in New York City in the case study showed the feasibility of the proposed method and the applicability of subsidies for ride-sourcing services in evacuation. The methodology and results given in this research can provide useful insights for modeling on-demand ride-sourcing for future evacuation planning.


2018 ◽  
Vol 130 ◽  
pp. 844-849 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bekir Bartin ◽  
Kaan Ozbay ◽  
Jingqin Gao ◽  
Abdullah Kurkcu

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert R. McSpadden ◽  
Ruggero Trevisan ◽  
Stig Arne Stene ◽  
Anita Vonheim

Abstract The wellbore and formation temperature environment around a system of multiple wells in close proximity is complex. Temperature simulation and prediction for a single isolated well is simplified by axisymmetric assumptions. Realistic multi-well environments do not have obvious symmetry and are interactive given different operating states including possibly a mix of producer versus injector wells. A simulation model of thermal interaction between closely spaced wells has been developed in a collaborative project. A large-scale validation of the model is presented here. An important field application is presented for a subsea well template where movement tolerances must be tightly controlled. Large-scale validation was conducted for an offshore platform development where more than 30 wells were drilled and brought onto production over a period of 4-5 years. As each well was drilled and completed, temperature logs where recorded which thereby gave a digital signature of the complex thermal environment below mudline as it evolved over time. The simulation model temperature for each well was corroborated against well temperature logs. A simultaneous boundary-condition of flowing wellhead temperatures and pressures for each well was compared against the model predictions. Also, a detailed predictive case study is presented for a 6 well subsea template. Model temperatures were used to assess the impact of cement height on wellhead movement within the template structure which featured lockdowns and tight tolerances on allowable movement within the housing profile. Predicted temperatures from the multi-well model agree closely with logs and correlate closely with characteristic temperature excursions from geothermal below the mudline down to the well path kick-off zone. Since the logs occur over time and account for a changing well population, the model is shown to accurately capture the time evolution of the complex temperature environment. The model explains unusual temperature log signatures as the result of sidetracks and the radial extent of heat affected zones from the parent wellbore. The subsea case study highlights the importance of predicting the complex multi-well temperature environment by demonstrating its impact on the wellhead movement given the uncertainty of cement tops for deeper shoes of combined conductor/surface casings. This learning informs subsea template design and selection with port options for cement grout and top-up jobs. Although the multi-well temperature model has been presented previously along with some field data validation, the large-scale study presented provides further and significant model validation. Extensive data over time and corroboration with unusual temperature log phenomena demonstrate model accuracy. The utilization of the model in the design and specification of a subsea template development provides a real-world example and demonstrates practical application as well as its usefulness.


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