scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis on Remittance and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
pp. 214-218
Author(s):  
Md Shafiul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
External Finance ◽  
The Relationship

In Bangladesh, migrant worker’s remittances constitute one of the most significant sources of external finance. This paper investigates the existence of relation between remittance inflow and GDP and the causal link between them in Bangladesh by employing the Granger causality test under a VECM framework. Using time series data over a 38 year period, we found that growth in remittances does lead to economic growth in Bangladesh. In addition to the relationship, this paper also points out some issues that are working as impediments in getting remittance and give some recommendations to overcome those impediments.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth In Kosovo: Findings from a Johansen Co-Integrated Test and a Granger Causality Test

Ekonomika ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-62 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leke Pula ◽  
Alban Elshani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Total Budget ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Budget Revenue

In the scientific literature, there are two opposing views on the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth. The Keynesian view states that public expenditure is an exogenous factor that influences economic growth and can be used as a policy instrument. This point of view is in contrast to the Wagner view that the public expenditure is seen as an endogenous factor or an outcome, not a cause, of economic growth. The primary objective of this study is to test the views of Keynes’s versus Wagner’s in the case of Kosovo by using Public Expenditure (G), Gross Domestic Product and three other components of GDP: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Export (EXP) and Total Budget Revenue (TRtax); the variables used in this analysis are quarterly time series data spanning from 2004–2016. To accomplish the set objectives, the Johansen co-integrated technique is used to investigate the long-run relationship between public expenditure and economic growth, while the Granger causality test is used to know the direction of flow between variables. This study discovers that there is a unidirectional causality between government expenditures and economic growth in Kosovo. It is also found that there is a bidirectional causality between total budget revenue and public expenditure. On the other hand, results also provide evidence that there is a bidirectional causality between export and economic growth. Moreover, the results for Kosovo indicate that data for the period considered support the Keynesian view.

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Tianjin

2012 ◽  
Vol 253-255 ◽  
pp. 278-281
Author(s):  
Xiao Zhe Meng
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Integration Theory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Correlations ◽  
The Relationship

Transport infrastructure makes important contribution to economic growth. At the same time, the economic growth provides support to the transport infrastructure. Based on the co-integration theory and Granger casualty analysis, using time series data in Tianjin from 1978 to 2010, empirically analyze the co-integration relationship and Granger causality between the index of all kinds of transport infrastructure and the GDP in Tianjin. Research shows that there are positive correlations between the length of road, railway, quay line and GDP. The length of road, railway and quay line is the Granger cause of GDP. However, GDP is not the Granger cause of transport infrastructure.

Has Social Mobilization Caused Political Instability in Africa? A Granger-Causality Test

1993 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-54
Author(s):  
Bedford N. Umez
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Social Mobilization ◽  
Series Data ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Empirical Results

A Granger-causality test is used to examine whether social mobilization causes political instability. This test allows serious problems encountered in correlation-based analyses to be overcome. Time-series data from seven African countries are used. The empirical results (which vary by country) generally suggest that there is usually a feedback relationship between social mobilization and political instability.

scholarly journals DYNAMIC MODELING OF TIME SERIES DATA USING BEKK-GARCH MODEL

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (36) ◽  
pp. 1186-1198
Author(s):  
Mustofa USMAN ◽  
N INDRYANI ◽  
WARSONO A. ◽  
AMANTO WAMILIANA
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
P Value ◽  
Test Statistics ◽  
Causality Test

The Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) model is one of the models that is often used in modeling multivariate time series data. In time-series data of economics, especially data return, they usually have high fluctuations in some periods, so the return volatility is unstable. In modeling data return of share prices ADRO and ITMG, the behavior of high volatility will be considered. This study aims to find the best model that fits the data return of share price of the energy companies of PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) and PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG), to analyze the behavior of impulse response of the variables data return ADRO and ITMG, to analyze the granger causality test, and to forecast the next 12 periods. Based on the selection of the best model using the criteria of AICC, HQC, AIC, and SBC, it was found that the VARMA (2.2) -GARCH (1.1) model is the best one for the data in this study. The model VARMA(2,2)-GARCH (1,1) is then written as a univariate model. For the univariate ADRO model, the test statistics F = 4,73 and P-value = 0,0084, which indicates the model is very significant; and for the univariate ITMG model, the test statistics is F = 5,82 and P-value 0,0001, which indicates the model is significant. Based on the best model selected, the impulse response, Granger causality test, and forecasting for the next 12 periods are discussed.

scholarly journals ANALISIS INTERAKSI PENERIMAAN DANA ALOKASI UMUM, PENERIMAAN PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH DANALOKASI BELANJA MODAL(STUDI PADA PEMERINTAH PROVINSI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2001-2014)

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Anies Purniati ◽  
Toni Heryana
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Provincial Government ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract. This study aims to determine whether there is a reciprocal or reciprocal relationship between General Allocation Fund Receipts, Local Income Receipts and Capital Expenditure Allocation of Provincial Government Year 2001-2014. This research is a research time series data and using descriptive method to test and provide a picture of the relationship these three variables. Based on the result of data analysis using VAR method with Granger Causality test at 5% significance level with the help of Eviews 9.5, showing the result that there is no reciprocal or reciprocal relationship between the three variables tested, either the relationship between DAU and Capital Expenditure, PAD with Capital Expenditure as well as the relationship between PAD and DAUKeywords: general allocation funds; local original income; and capital expendituresAbstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya hubungan timbal balik atau resiprokal antara Penerimaan Dana Alokasi Umum, Penerimaan Pendapatan Asli Daerah dan Alokasi Belanja Modal Pemerintah Provinsi Tahun 2001-2014.Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian data time series dan menggunakan metode desriptif untuk menguji dan memberikan gambaran hubungan ketiga variabel tersebut. Berdasarkan hasil analisis data menggunakan metode VAR dengan pengujian Granger Causality pada tingkat signifikasi 5% dengan bantuan Eviews 9.5, menunjukan hasil bahwa tidak terdapat hubungan timbal balik atau resiprokal diantara ketiga variabel yang diuji, baik itu hubungan antara DAU dan Belanja Modal, PAD dengan Belanja Modal maupun hubungan antara PAD dan DAU.Kata Kunci: dana alokasi umum; pendapatan asli daerah; dan belanja modal.

scholarly journals Export, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Inter-Linkages: The Case of Lithuania

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-410 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gitana Dudzevičiūtė ◽  
Agnė Šimelytė
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Future Policy

Abstract This paper has aimed to examine the causal relationships between energy consumption – economic growth, export – energy consumption and export – economic growth in Lithuania during the period of 1998 – 2015. Descriptive statistics analysis and econometric techniques have been applied for this purpose. Granger causality test has been used to a time series data set to determine the causality between variables. The results of Granger causality test have shown unidirectional causality running from GDP to energy consumption, from export to GDP and from export to energy consumption. It is obvious that GDP and export play significant roles in accelerating energy consumption in Lithuania. The determination of the causal links between energy consumption – economic growth, export – economic growth and energy consumption – export has provided policy makers with the main insights to formulate future policy directions for sustainable economic development in Lithuania.

scholarly journals ANALISIS KAUSALITAS INFLASI, KETIMPANGAN PENDAPATAN, DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

Jurnal Ecogen ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 701
Author(s):  
Rifki Ihsan ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Alpon Satrianto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between Inflation, Income Inequality and Economic Growth in Indonesia. The type of this research is associative and analysisdescriptive. The data used in this reseach is secondary of time series from 1986 to 2016 obtained from Word Bank. Analysis model using the Vector Autoregression (VAR). Theanalysis initially used the Vector Autoregression (VAR), because the stationer variabel on first diferent range, then this study continued byVector Error CorrectionModel (VECM) and Granger Causality Test. The result of this study show (1) There is nocausality between Inflation affects to Income Inequality, (2) There is no causality between Inflation affects to Economic Growth, (3) There is causality in the direction in which Income Inequality affects to Economic Growth. In addition, because of the prevalence of income in Indonesia, this will increase economic growth in Indonesia. Keywords:Inflation, Income Inequality, Economic Growth

scholarly journals Exploring the linkages of Foreign Direct Investment in Spain since 1970’s: an ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-54
Author(s):  
Verónica Cañal Fernández ◽  
Julio Tascón Fernández ◽  
María Gómez Martín
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper analyzes the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports and economic growth in Spain using annual time series data for the period 1970 to 2016. To examine these linkages the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long-run is applied. The results confirm a long-run relationship among the examined variables. The Granger causality test indicates a strong unidirectional causality between FDI and exports with direction from FDI to exports. Besides, the results for the relationship between FDI and economic growth are interesting and indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from FDI to economic growth and vice-versa.

Cointegration and Causality between Disaggregated Exports and Economic Growth in ASEAN-4 Nations

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 633-645
Author(s):  
Shahrun Nizam Abdul-Aziz Et.al
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Manufactured Exports

This study aimed to examine the relationship between ASEAN-4’s disaggregates exports (i.e., manufactured and primary exports) and economic growth by utilising the time series data over the period from 1982 to 2017. The Johansen-Juselius multivariate procedure was performed to determine the existence of the long-run relationship between variables, while the Granger causality test within VECM was applied to analyse the long-run and short-run causal directions. Prior to that, the unit root test was conducted to examine the series properties of the variables. The empirical results from the Johansen and Juselius Multivariate Cointegration test revealed that there were long-run equilibrium relationships among variables, while the Granger causality test based on VECM found that the ELG hypothesis for manufactured exports was valid for Indonesia in the long-run and short-run, while in the Philippines this hypothesis was only valid for the short-run. On the other hand, in the case of Malaysia and Thailand, both ELG and GLE hypotheses were valid in both long-run and short-run. For each ASEAN-4 nation the results also revealed that physical capital indirectly caused economic growth via the manufactured exports. Nevertheless, in the case of Malaysia and Thailand, it seemed that the reserve effect was likely to happen whereby the economic growth caused the growth of manufactured exports through the increase of the national production. The growth of the manufactured exports due to the reverse effect in turn caused the demand for imports to increase, particularly the imports of intermediate products. As far as the primary exports were concerned, the ELG hypothesis was valid for Thailand in both long-run and short-run, while for Malaysia and Indonesia, this hypothesis was valid respectively in the long-run and short-run. For Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, it appeared that in the short run, human capital indirectly stimulated economic growth via primary exports.

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