Manufacturing Export Performance: A Trend Analysis Approach

The study examined the export performance using a trend analysis approach. A graphical demonstration showing the trend of export performance in Nigeria over time was displayed. It also identifies the major determinants of manufacture exports in Nigeria using ordinary least square approach which shows that an increase in the average tariff rate would lead to a decline in the manufacturing exports and its statistically significant at the 5% level of significance. Capacity utilization has a negative and insignificant with manufactured exports. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate and trade openness at 1 and 5% level of significance respectively.

Do Donors provide higher Aid for Trade flows to Recipient-Countries that Diversify Export Products or Is It the Other Way Around?

This article has explored whether Aid for Trade (AfT) flows that accrue to recipient-countries depend on the latter’s level of export product concentration. The analysis covers a sample of 132 countries over the period 2002–2017. The findings indicate that least developed countries (LDCs) receive higher AfT flows when they experience a rise in the level of export product concentration, while NonLDCs enjoy higher AfT flows when they diversify export products. Interestingly, higher amounts of AfT accrue to countries that diversify their export product basket towards manufacturing products, although different result patterns appear for the components of manufactured exports. JEL: F35; F14; O14

The Relationship between Product Complexity and Exchange Rate Elasticities: Evidence from the People’s Republic of China’s Manufacturing Industries

More complex products are less substitutable in international trade and may therefore have lower price elasticities. We investigate this issue using 960 types of manufactured exports from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to 190 partner economies disaggregated at the Harmonized System 4-digit level. We measure complexity using Hidalgo and Hausmann’s (2009) product complexity index. We find that price elasticities are lower for more complex goods. These results imply that the PRC can reduce its exporters’ exposure to tariffs, trade wars, and exchange rate volatility by upgrading its export basket.

Effect of Aid for Trade on Financial Development: Exploring the Channel of Manufactured Exports

Many studies have considered the macroeconomic effects of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows, that is, the part of official development assistance allocated for the development of the trade sector. The present paper aims to expand this literature by investigating the effect AfT flows on financial development notably through channel of manufactured exports. The analysis has covered a set of 120 countries over the period 2002–2017, and relied primarily on the two-step system Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM). Results show that total AfT flows, notably its components AfT for economic infrastructure and AfT for productive capacity promote financial development, and the magnitude of these positive effects rises as countries' share of manufactured exports increases. Additionally, total AfT flows influence positively financial development in countries that diversify their export product basket towards manufactured exports. These findings highlight the key role of AfT flows in promoting financial development in recipient-countries, and therefore call on donor-countries to scale up AfT flows in favour of developing countries, given the importance of financial development for economic development.

Exploring the U-shape geographical bias in manufactured exports of MERCOSUR countries

We proposed a novel approach to understand the industrialization pattern of MERCOSUR countries during the last 60 years. We performed an index to measure the geographical bias of manufactured exports between the region and the world and showed that regional trade agreements allowed MERCOSUR countries to decrease the bias and increase competitiveness. However, we noted that in recent years the bias deepened in favor of exporting a higher proportion of manufactured goods to the region. Our main result is that these economies present a U-shape geographical bias in manufactured exports associated with a bimodal distribution of breaks. Furthermore, we observed that the 1980s and 2000s were the most relevant periods for defining the region trends.

Cointegration and Causality between Disaggregated Exports and Economic Growth in ASEAN-4 Nations

This study aimed to examine the relationship between ASEAN-4’s disaggregates exports (i.e., manufactured and primary exports) and economic growth by utilising the time series data over the period from 1982 to 2017. The Johansen-Juselius multivariate procedure was performed to determine the existence of the long-run relationship between variables, while the Granger causality test within VECM was applied to analyse the long-run and short-run causal directions. Prior to that, the unit root test was conducted to examine the series properties of the variables. The empirical results from the Johansen and Juselius Multivariate Cointegration test revealed that there were long-run equilibrium relationships among variables, while the Granger causality test based on VECM found that the ELG hypothesis for manufactured exports was valid for Indonesia in the long-run and short-run, while in the Philippines this hypothesis was only valid for the short-run. On the other hand, in the case of Malaysia and Thailand, both ELG and GLE hypotheses were valid in both long-run and short-run. For each ASEAN-4 nation the results also revealed that physical capital indirectly caused economic growth via the manufactured exports. Nevertheless, in the case of Malaysia and Thailand, it seemed that the reserve effect was likely to happen whereby the economic growth caused the growth of manufactured exports through the increase of the national production. The growth of the manufactured exports due to the reverse effect in turn caused the demand for imports to increase, particularly the imports of intermediate products. As far as the primary exports were concerned, the ELG hypothesis was valid for Thailand in both long-run and short-run, while for Malaysia and Indonesia, this hypothesis was valid respectively in the long-run and short-run. For Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia, it appeared that in the short run, human capital indirectly stimulated economic growth via primary exports.

Comparative Advantage Following (CAF) Strategy and Integration into the World Market for Manufactured Export Products

This article investigates the impact of countries' comparative advantage following (CAF) strategy on their integration into the world markets for manufactured exports. The analysis uses a panel dataset of 113 countries (comprising both developed and developing countries) over the period 1995-2015. Based on the two-step system Generalized Method of Moments approach, the findings have shown that the CAF development strategy induces a rise in countries' share of manufactured export products in the world's total manufactured exports. Interestingly, the magnitude of this positive effect of the CAF strategy increases as the size of inward FDI stock rises. An important implication of this analysis is that countries that promote industries in line with their comparative advantage are likely to enjoy a greater integration into the world market for manufactured export products, notably when they experience a greater size of inward FDI stock.

Monitoring Robust Estimates for Compositional Data

In a number of recent articles Riani, Cerioli, Atkinson and others advocate the technique of monitoring robust estimates computed over a range of key parameter values. Through this approach the diagnostic tools of choice can be tuned in such a way that highly robust estimators which are as efficient as possible are obtained. This approach is applicable to various robust multivariate estimates like S- and MM-estimates, MVE and MCD as well as to the Forward Search in whichmonitoring is part of the robust method. Key tool for detection of multivariate outliers and for monitoring of robust estimates is the Mahalanobis distances and statistics related to these distances. However, the results obtained with thistool in case of compositional data might be unrealistic since compositional data contain relative rather than absolute information and need to be transformed to the usual Euclidean geometry before the standard statistical tools can be applied. Various data transformations of compositional data have been introduced in the literature and theoretical results on the equivalence of the additive, the centered, and the isometric logratio transformation in the context of outlier identification exist. To illustrate the problem of monitoring compositional data and to demonstrate the usefulness of monitoring in this case we start with a simple example and then analyze a real life data set presenting the technologicalstructure of manufactured exports. The analysis is conducted with the R package fsdaR, which makes the analytical and graphical tools provided in the MATLAB FSDA library available for R users.

Constraints on the performance and competitiveness of Tanzania’s manufacturing exports

This study sought to examine the main constraints to manufacturing export competitiveness in Tanzania. Using panel data for the period 1997–2018, the study established that supply-side factors dominate demand-side factors in explaining manufacturing export competitiveness. Specifically, the results revealed that foreign direct investment and tariffs have a negative and significant effect on export competitiveness in Tanzania, while infrastructure, total investment, labour productivity, and high institutional quality enhance manufactured exports. The study also showed scope for quality upgrading through technology diffusion as well as deeper integration of Tanzania’s nascent global value chains by building on existing competencies and negotiating deep trade agreements to increase market reach. Accordingly, measures to increase investment in infrastructure, strengthen institutional frameworks, and further develop human capital can boost export competitiveness in Tanzania. In addition, export competitiveness can be enhanced through reduction of tariffs and incentives to use cheaper value-adding intermediate inputs.