scholarly journals Building a Model of Long-Term Forecasting of the Natural Gas Production in Ukraine for Managerial Decision-Making

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (493) ◽  
pp. 133-139
Author(s):  
Y. O. Hlotov ◽  
◽  
N. V. Shulga ◽  
O. M. Popova ◽  
◽  
...  
Energy Policy ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 39 (9) ◽  
pp. 5550-5560 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.H. Mohr ◽  
G.M. Evans

2000 ◽  
Vol 41 (10-11) ◽  
pp. 117-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Visvanathan ◽  
P. Svenstrup ◽  
P. Ariyamethee

This paper presents a case study of a natural gas production site covering various technical issues related to selection of an appropriate Reverse Osmosis (RO) system. The long-term field experience indicates the necessity of the selection of appropriate pretreatment systems for fouling-free RO operational conditions. The produced water has a variety of impurities such as oil and grease, process chemicals used for corrosion and scaling control, and dehydration of natural gas, etc. This situation leads to a complicated and extremely difficult task for a membrane specialist to design RO systems, especially the pre-treatment section. Here as part of the pretreatment selection, two types of UF membrane modules viz. spiral wound and hollow fibre, with MWCO of 8000 and 50,000 Dalton respectively, were tested in parallel with NF membranes of the spiral wound type with MWCO 200 Dalton. The UF permeate is used as feed for RO compatibility testing. Both configurations of UF failed to be compatible, due to irreversible fouling of the RO membrane. The NF membrane, however, showed interesting results, due to membrane stability in terms of cleaning and fouling. The NF plant with 50% capacity gave a recovery of 75% and the RO plant gave a recovery of 60% versus the expected 92–95%. The long-term tests have indicated that the reminder of the membranes could be installed to achieve full capacity of the plant. This study also demonstrates the importance of selection of proper pre-treatment set-up for the RO system design.


Author(s):  
Otavio Chase

Nowadays, the market for natural gas production and its use as a source of energy supply has been growing substantially in Brazil. However, the use of tools that assist the industry in the management of production can be essential for the strategic decision-making process. In this intuit, this work aims to evaluate the formulation of Holt Winter's additive and multiplicative time series to forecast Brazilian natural gas production. A comparison between the models and their forecast play a vital role for policymakers in the strategic plan, and the models estimated production values ​​for the year 2018 based on the information contained in the interval between 2010 and 2017. Therefore, It was verified that the multiplicative method had a good performance so that we can conclude this formulation is ideal for such an application since all the predicted results by this model showed greater accuracy within the 95% confidence interval.


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