scholarly journals Economic Voting Theory in the Philippines

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 184-202
Author(s):  
Jhenica Mae L. Jurado ◽  
Jo Marj D. Villacorta ◽  
Peter Jeff C. Camaro, M.A
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Voting Theory ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Voting Model ◽  
Senatorial Elections

The study examined how the performance of the politicians influences the voters’ decisions in the elections. The researchers modified Reed’s (1994) performance-based voting model to evaluate the performance of the politicians during their term in office. Since the model is a repeated election framework, the researchers focused on the senatorial elections during the Arroyo to Duterte administration (2004-2019) in the Philippines. The framework was used to determine whether the prospective or retrospective voting theories occurred in the elections and was able to compute for the value of the office of the politicians and evaluate their performance in office. The study showed that the retrospective voting theory occurred more than the prospective voting theory. It also showed that the citizens would vote for the senator regardless of their performance in office.

Economic voting theory: Testing new dimensions

2011 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 288-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Steven Lewis-Beck ◽  
Richard Nadeau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Theory Testing ◽  
Voting Theory

scholarly journals Voting and the Macroeconomy

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas A. Hibbs
Keyword(s):  
Economic Voting ◽  
Retrospective Voting

This article discusses voting and the macroeconomy and focuses on its more important developments. It studies two views of economic voting, which are prospective and retrospective. This is followed by a section on empirical implementation, where pure prospective voting, pure retrospective voting, and prospective voting are introduced. The article also examines individual electoral choices and aggregate vote shares, and clarifies responsibility in macroeconomy.

scholarly journals Electoral Accountability, Responsibility Attributions, and the Democratic Deficit in Devolved Wales

2018 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-45
Author(s):  
Einion Dafydd ◽  
Sanja Badanjak
Keyword(s):  
Government Performance ◽  
Democratic Deficit ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Electoral Accountability ◽  
Responsibility Attributions ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Do So ◽  
Voting Model

Abstract This study explores electoral accountability at the devolved level in Wales. The retrospective voting model assumes that electoral accountability requires that citizens assign responsibility accurately and vote on the basis of their evaluation of government performance. Drawing on data from the 2016 Welsh Election Study, we examine whether citizens in Wales can identify devolved policy competences and office holders, and identify factors that are linked to accurate attributions. We then examine whether voters seek to use devolved elections as a sanctioning tool, even if they do not have the information required to do so accurately. The findings indicate that there is an acute accountability deficit at the devolved level in Wales: few have the knowledge or the inclination to hold those in power to account. The conclusion discusses the implications of these findings for democracy in Wales and in other multi-level settings.

scholarly journals Retrospective voting in the Italian 2013 election: a sub-national perspective

2017 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-83
Author(s):  
Marco Giuliani
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Spatial Regression ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Second Republic ◽  
New Parties ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
Spatial Regression Models ◽  
National Perspective

The Italian 2013 election ended the period of bipolarism that characterized the so-called ‘Second Republic’, and paved the way for new parties such as the Five Star Movement. We investigate that election, which took place after the technocratic government led by Mario Monti, through the analytical lenses of the retrospective theory of economic voting applied at the provincial level. Local unemployment rates shape the electoral performances of those parties that were more supportive and sympathetic to the caretaker executive, thus confirming a distinction between incumbent and non-incumbent even in that critical and politically undecided election. We further contribute to the literature on retrospective voting by relaxing the locally untenable assumption of independence among the units. Making use of spatial regression models, we demonstrate the relevance of both the internal and contiguous economies, and their relative impact due to the different size of the provinces.

Obama and the Economy in 2008

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (03) ◽  
pp. 479-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael S. Lewis-Beck ◽  
Richard Nadeau
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Voting Theory ◽  
2008 Presidential Election ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
The Government

We believe the economy was much on voters' minds in the 2008 presidential election. More formally, a traditional economic retrospective voting theory—electors disapprove of past economic conditions and vote against the government—should serve well as an explanation of Obama's victory (Fiorina 1981; Lewis-Beck 1988, 34).

Economic Performance and Retrospective Voting in Canadian Federal Elections

1989 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 377-388 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. Happy
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Income Growth ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Attribution Of Responsibility ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Money Illusion ◽  
Nominal Income ◽  
Better Than

AbstractThis study examines the retrospective economic voting model for Canadian federal elections, 1930 through 1979. The analysis shows that change in personal or disposable income has a significant, direct impact on incumbency voting while inflation enters the voting calculus indirectly, as a (partial) deflator of nominal income, and unemployment has no effect. Disposable income is a better predictor of incumbency voting than is personal income, nominal income variables predict better than real values and variability in income performance is negatively related to incumbency voting. The study concludes that voter attribution of responsibility for income performance is focussed and specific, income stability as well as income growth are demanded through incumbency voting, and voters are affected by money illusion.

European voters in the face of crisis: the prominence of unemployment

2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Rombi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Political System ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Voting Theory ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Political Perspective ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Face ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
Electoral Performance

From a political perspective, an economic crisis is an external shock which may deeply affect the functioning of a political system. Covering the European Parliament elections from 1999 to 2014, this article analyses how and to what extent the 2008 economic crisis affected the electoral patterns in EU member states. The analysis focusses on the electoral performance of both government parties and Eurosceptic parties, before and after the outbreak of the crisis. Resorting to the economic voting theory, it addresses two questions: first, if and why electoral losses of governing parties are greater during the crisis than before; and, second, if and why Eurosceptic parties have become more prominent after the onset of the crisis. Change of unemployment rate is shown as being the most important factor explaining these trends.

Anti-austerity voting in an era of economic crisis: Regional evidence from the 2015 referendum in Greece

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 589-608
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Artelaris ◽  
Yannis Tsirbas
Keyword(s):  
Financial Aid ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Political System ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Voting Theory ◽  
Spatial Econometric ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Geographic Patterns ◽  
Time Period

The austerity measures and structural reforms that Greece had to undertake since 2010 in exchange for financial aid divided the Greek political system into pro-austerity and anti-austerity camps. These divisions reached a climax with the July 2015 referendum. The paper attempts to assess the extent that to which the geographic patterns that emerged in voting were due to the differentiated economic regional impact of economic crisis. Using economic voting theory as a benchmark, and employing spatial econometric methods, the study contributes to a largely ignored topic, known as geographies of economic voting, providing new and valuable insights for an under-researched time period.

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