scholarly journals Macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the impact of energy wars and geopolitics on currency rates and oil prices

2020 ◽  
pp. 7-20
Author(s):  
Alexander N. Bryntsev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Close Correlation ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Subject/topic. In modern conditions, it is advisable to consider geopolitics through the prism of hybrid wars, when the theaters of war have moved from the ocean and land to the world financial and commodity markets. There is a close correlation be-tween changes in exchange rates and the price of oil on the results of energy wars. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical and empirical aspects of the impact of energy wars and geopolitics on the formation of oil prices and the dynamics of currency rates in modern conditions, as well as determining their vector of influence on the development of the world economy as a whole. Methodology of the article. To complete this article, a comparative and economic-statistical analysis was used. Results. The article shows that in the context of globalization of the world economy, there is a deep correlation between changes in currency rates and the price of oil and the consequences of energy wars, on the one hand, and on the other, currency rates and oil prices are the tools for geopolitics in achieving their goals. In addition, there is a fairly strong direct link between oil prices and exchange rates. Factors affecting the formation of the currency exchange and oil markets are sometimes artificial in nature by influencing appropriate macroeconomic conditions, for example, changing the balance of supply and demand. Findings. A macroeconomic analysis of the nature of the relationship between the dynamics of oil prices and currency fluctuations reveals the geopolitical interests of the main players in the oil market, indicating its redistribution. The stage of ousting Russia from the Chinese oil market with dumping prices began, not only with supplies from Saudi Arabia, but also with the active participation of the former partners of Iran and Venezuela, which themselves were under sanctions. The budget of these countries directly depends on oil imports. It is the force majeure circumstances that force them to abandon further partnership with Russia and become independent players in the Chinese hydrocarbon market.

THE IMPACT OF ENERGY WARS AND GEOPOLITICS ON EXCHANGE RATES AND THE PRICE OF OIL: THE ERA OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2020 ◽  
pp. 64-71
Author(s):  
M.N. Dudin ◽  
◽  
N.V. Lyasnikov ◽  
A.N. Bryntsev ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The World ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Oil will remain the single largest energy source in the world for the foreseeable future, and a balance must be struck between global supply and demand. A serious malfunction of only one large oil producer can lead to a significant change in oil prices and the recession of the entire global economy. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical and empirical aspects of the mutual causality of oil prices and exchange rates, as well as to determine their influence on the development of the world economy. Methodology of the article. To complete this article, a comparative, economic and statistical analysis was used. Results. The article proves that the oil market is more inherent in a tendency towards regionalization rather than globalization. Factors affecting this process include macroeconomic conditions, the balance of supply and demand, the transformation of the regulatory component, changes in the cost structure and the significant influence of geopolitical components. The article justifies the fact that there is a certain strong direct connection between oil prices and exchange rates, but it is influenced by various geopolitical factors (for example, sanctions). Only 4% of the cost of oil is included in the price of gasoline, so when the price of oil falls, the price of gasoline does not decrease. Conclusions. A characteristic feature of the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates is the presence of bilateral mutual causality. Fluctuations in the dynamics of the oil industry are changing the roles of traditional and new suppliers. The oil market environment, which is a key commodity of our time, has a significant impact on world currencies.

scholarly journals The fluctuations in oil prices in the OPEC countries and the impact on the world oil market

2017 ◽  
pp. 4-8
Author(s):  
Zarina Stepanovna Akhlatyan ◽  
◽  
Natalia Vladimirovna Buryanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The World Economy: The impact of rising oil prices and weak equity markets on global growth

2008 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 8-13
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Sequence Of Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

In interesting times several things may happen simultaneously, and they may have connected roots. The financial turmoil that developed initially in the US banking sector had its roots in financial innovation that had made available cheap finance and increased demand for housing. This wave of low cost finance had spread to Europe, and house prices rose in a correlated way. The increase in demand in the world economy that resulted from strong growth in lending and high asset values helped raise output growth outside the OECD, and this in turn put upward pressure on oil prices. Markets sometimes work slowly, and the effects of the increase in demand on prices appear to be coming through just as the asset bubble is collapsing. The sequence of events was not inevitable, as low personal sector saving in the US and the UK as well as elsewhere could have been offset by tighter fiscal policy, and better prudential regulation of lenders would also definitely have helped. The desire to move financial regulation from the central bank, as in the UK, may have been for good, competition based, reasons, but it has meant that financial sector oversight has not taken account of the macroeconomic implications of a wave of lending that rested on risky financial innovation and therefore it has not properly addressed the issue of systemic risk (see Barrell and Davis, 2005). The resulting financial turmoil has meant that banks have made losses, and have been unable to trust each other's solvency when making deals. As a result three month interbank rates have risen well above central bank intervention rates, as can be seen in figure 1.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1991 ◽  
Vol 135 ◽  
pp. 27-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Andrew Gurney ◽  
Jan Willem In't Veld
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bank Failures ◽  
Capacity Utilisation ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Uk

The start of hostilities in the Gulf in January appears to have removed some of the uncertainties surrounding the oil market, and oil prices have dropped to around 20 dollars per barrel. This development should help sustain growth and reduce inflation over the next two years. Box A sets out some calculations of the effects of the change in our oil price assumptions on our forecast. The appreciation of the D-Mark bloc and the emergence of a recession in the US driven by a wave of bank failures has persuaded us to be less optimistic then we were in our last forecast. Table 1 summarises the outlook. We are forecasting a slowdown in the rate of growth in the major economies in 1991, with some recovery in 1992 and thereafter. The slowdown has already taken place in the US, the UK and Canada, whereas in 1990 Japanese and German growth was at historically high levels. Chart 1 plots levels of capacity utilisation in the major economies. Only in the US has output clearly fallen below capacity, but record levels of utilisation in Japan, Germany and France inevitably imply some slowdown in growth from recent levels.

scholarly journals Measuring the impact of COVID-19 surveillance variables over the international oil market

2022 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-33
Author(s):  
Alshdadi et al. ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Markets ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Coronavirus (COVID-19) has turned to be an alarm for the whole world both in terms of health and economics. It is striking the global economy and increasing the unpredictability of the financial market in several ways. Significantly, the pandemic spread stimulated the social distancing which led to the lockdown of the countries’ businesses, financial markets, and daily life events. International oil markets have accommodated the crude oil prices during the early COVID-19 period. However, after the first 50 days, Saudi Arabia has surged the market with oil, which caused a certain decrease in crude oil prices, internationally. Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest oil reserves in the world. International trade is based on oil reservoirs which in turn, have been significantly dislodged by the pandemic. Therefore, it is crucial to study the impact of COVID-19 on the international oil market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the short-term and long-term impact of COVID-19 on the international oil market. The daily crude oil price data is used to analyze the impact of daily price fluctuation over COVID-19 surveillance variables. The correlation between surveillance variables and international crude oil prices is calculated and analyzed. Consequently, the project will help in stabilizing the expected world economic crises and particularly will provide the implications for the policymakers in the oil market.

scholarly journals What Microeconomic Fundamentals Drove Global Oil Prices during 1986–2020?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 391
Author(s):  
Anastasios G. Malliaris ◽  
Mary Malliaris
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 caused major economic disturbances in the oil market. In this paper, we consider five variables that describe the microeconomics of the supply of and demand for oil, and evaluate their importance before, during and after the global financial crisis. We consider five dissimilar regimes during the period of January 1986 to the end of 2020: two regimes prior to the global financial crisis, the regime during the crisis, and two regimes after the crisis. The main hypothesis tested is that oil fundamentals of supply and demand remained important, even though the five regimes were dissimilar. We built five boosted and over-fitted neural networks to capture the exact relationships between spot oil prices and oil data related to these prices. This analysis shows that, while the inputs into an accurate neural network can remain the same, the impact of each variable can change considerably during different regimes.

Section II. The impact of higher oil prices: a return to the 70s?

2000 ◽  
Vol 174 ◽  
pp. 38-41
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Third ◽  
Global Demand ◽  
The World ◽  
Imported Oil ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Considerable Concern ◽  
Sustained Increase

The sustained increase in the price of oil has generated considerable concern about the impact of higher oil prices on the world economy. The price of oil has risen from $11 a barrel in the first quarter of 1999 to around $31 a barrel in the third quarter of 2000, and is now at a 15 year high in real terms. Global demand has been increasingly strong and supply has been restricted. Economies with a strong dependence on imported oil, for instance in East Asia, have been growing strongly, and the world upturn has been sharper than many anticipated. Between 1998 and 1999 world oil demand rose by 1.6 per cent to 74.8 million barrels a day, and it is anticipated that demand will have risen again this year by 0.8 million barrels a day. Between 1998 and 1999 OPEC output fell by 1.2 million barrels a day, and non-OPEC supply was constant.

scholarly journals Coronavirus: impact on the economy and financial markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. A. Barinov
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Energy Carrier ◽  
Western Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Impact

The article examines the impact of the pandemic on the world economy. The impact of the OPEC+ oil agreement and the reduction of its production on financial markets and exchange rates is noted. Data are provided on the losses of a number of countries from the decline in prices for this energy carrier and the increase in the incidence of coronavirus infection in the population. The article analyzes the measures taken by Western countries and Russia to help national companies and populations affected by the pandemic.

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