scholarly journals Closing five Emergency Departments in England between 2009 and 2011: the closED controlled interrupted time-series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (27) ◽  
pp. 1-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Knowles ◽  
Neil Shephard ◽  
Tony Stone ◽  
Lindsey Bishop-Edwards ◽  
Enid Hirst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Outcome Measures ◽  
Emergency Care ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Ambulance Service ◽  
Urgent Care ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Reliable Evidence ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundIn recent years, a number of emergency departments (EDs) have closed or have been replaced by another facility such as an urgent care centre. With further reorganisation of EDs expected, this study aimed to provide research evidence to inform the public, the NHS and policy-makers when considering local closures.ObjectiveTo understand the impact of ED closures/downgrades on populations and emergency care providers.DesignA controlled interrupted time series of monthly data to assess changes in the patterns of mortality in local populations and changes in local emergency care service activity and performance, following the closure of type 1 EDs.SettingThe populations of interest were in the resident catchment areas of five EDs that closed between 2009 and 2011 (in Newark, Hemel Hempstead, Bishop Auckland, Hartlepool and Rochdale) and of five control areas.Main outcome measuresThe primary outcome measures were ambulance service incident volumes and times, the number of emergency and urgent care attendances at EDs, the number of emergency hospital admissions, mortality, and case fatality ratios.Data sourcesData were sourced from the Office for National Statistics, Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) accident and emergency, HES admitted patient care and ambulance service computer-aided dispatch records.ResultsThere was significant heterogeneity among sites in the results for most of the outcome measures, but the overall findings were as follows: there is evidence of an increase, on average, in the total number of incidents attended by an ambulance following 999 calls, and those categorised as potentially serious emergency incidents; there is no statistically reliable evidence of changes in the number of attendances at emergency or urgent care services or emergency hospital admissions; there is no statistically reliable evidence of any change in the number of deaths from a set of emergency conditions following the ED closure in any site, although, on average, there was a small increase in an indicator of the ‘risk of death’ in the closure areas compared with the control areas.LimitationsUnavailable or unreliable data hindered some of the analysis regarding ED and ambulance service performance.ConclusionsOverall, across the five areas studied, there was no statistically reliable evidence that the reorganisation of emergency care was associated with an increase in population mortality. This suggests that any negative effects caused by increased journey time to the ED can be offset by other factors; for example, if other new services are introduced and care becomes more effective than it used to be, or if the care received at the now-nearest hospital is more effective than that provided at the hospital where the ED closed. However, there may be implications of reorganisation for NHS emergency care providers, with ambulance services appearing to experience a greater burden.Future workUnderstanding why effects vary between sites is necessary. It is also necessary to understand the impact on patient experience. Economic evaluation to understand the cost implications of such reorganisation is also desirable.FundingThe National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

OP5 Closing emergency departments in england (CLOSED): the impact on ambulance services

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (10) ◽  
pp. e4.1-e4
Author(s):  
Emma Knowles ◽  
Neil Shephard ◽  
Tony Stone ◽  
Lindsey Bishop-Edwards ◽  
Enid Hirst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Departments ◽  
Control Area ◽  
Ambulance Service ◽  
Urgent Care ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Additional Increase ◽  
Emergency Ambulance ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundIn recent years a number of Emergency Departments (EDs) in England have closed, or been replaced by a lower acuity facility such as an Urgent Care Centre. With further re-organisation of EDs expected, the ‘closED’ study aimed to provide research evidence to inform the public, NHS, and policymakers when considering future closures. Our aim was to understand the impact of ED closure on populations and emergency care providers, the first study to do so in England. In this session I will focus on the impact on the ambulance service.MethodsWe undertook a controlled interrupted time series analysis assessing changes in ambulance service activity, following the closure of Type 1 EDs in England. Data was sourced data from Ambulance service computer-assisted dispatch (CAD) records. The resident catchment populations of five EDs, closed between 2009 and 2011, were selected for analysis. Five control areas were also selected. The primary ambulance outcome measures were: ambulance service incident volumes and mean ‘call to destination’ time.ResultsThere was some evidence of a large increase of 13.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.5% to 24.4%] in the total number of emergency ambulance incidents compared with the control areas. There was an increase of 3.9 minutes (95% CI 2.2 to 5.6 minutes) in the meantime taken from a 999 ‘red’ call being answered to a patient arriving at hospital.ConclusionsGiven such major reorganisation of emergency and urgent care we might expect some changes in emergency and urgency care activity. Our study found some changes in the ambulance service measures. The increase in emergency ambulance incidents, over and above the increase in the control area, suggests that the closure of the EDs in our study may have contributed to an additional increase in workload within the ambulance services in these areas.

scholarly journals Hospitalization for ischemic stroke was affected more in independent cases than in dependent cases during the COVID-19 pandemic: An interrupted time series analysis

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0261587
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Nagano ◽  
Jung-ho Shin ◽  
Tetsuji Morishita ◽  
Daisuke Takada ◽  
Susumu Kunisawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Its Analysis ◽  
Care Systems ◽  
The Impact

Background The pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected health care systems globally. The aim of our study is to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of hospital admissions for ischemic stroke by severity in Japan. Methods We analysed administrative (Diagnosis Procedure Combination—DPC) data for cases of inpatients aged 18 years and older who were diagnosed with ischemic stroke and admitted during the period April 1 2018 to June 27 2020. Levels of change of the weekly number of inpatient cases with ischemic stroke diagnosis after the declaration of state of emergency were assessed using interrupted time-series (ITS) analysis. The numbers of patients with various characteristics and treatment approaches were compared. We also performed an ITS analysis for each group (“independent” or “dependent”) divided based on components of activities of daily living (ADL) and level of consciousness at hospital admission. Results A total of 170,294 cases in 567 hospitals were included. The ITS analysis showed a significant decrease in the weekly number of ischemic stroke cases hospitalized (estimated decrease: −156 cases; 95% confidence interval (CI): −209 to −104), which corresponds to −10.4% (95% CI: −13.6 to −7.1). The proportion of decline in the independent group (−21.3%; 95% CI: −26.0 to −16.2) was larger than that in the dependent group (−8.6%; 95% CI: −11.7 to −5.4). Conclusions Our results show a marked reduction in hospital admissions due to ischemic stroke after the declaration of the state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. The independent cases were affected more in proportion than dependent cases.

scholarly journals The impact of closing emergency departments on mortality in emergencies: an observational study

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (11) ◽  
pp. 645-651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Knowles ◽  
Neil Shephard ◽  
Tony Stone ◽  
Suzanne M Mason ◽  
Jon Nicholl
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Care ◽  
Emergency Departments ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Geographical Area ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Urgent Care ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Population Mortality ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundIn England the demand for emergency care is increasing, while there is also a staffing shortage. This has implications for quality of care and patient safety. One solution may be to concentrate resources on fewer sites by closing or downgrading emergency departments (EDs). Our aim was to quantify the impact of such reorganisation on population mortality.MethodsWe undertook a controlled interrupted time series analysis to detect the impact of closing or downgrading five EDs, which occurred due to concerns regarding sustainability. We obtained mortality data from 2007 to 2014 using national databases. To establish ED resident catchment populations, estimated journey times by road were supplied by the Department for Transport. Other major changes in the emergency and urgent care system were determined by analysis of annual NHS Trust reports in each geographical area studied. Our main outcome measures were mortality and case fatality for a set of 16 serious emergency conditions.ResultsFor residents in the areas affected by closure, journey time to the nearest ED increased (median change 9 min, range 0–25 min). We found no statistically reliable evidence of a change in overall mortality following reorganisation of ED care in any of the five areas or overall (+2.5% more deaths per month on average; 95% CI −5.2% to +10.2%; p=0.52). There was some evidence to suggest that, on average across the five areas, there was a small increase in case fatality, an indicator of the ‘risk of death’ (+2.3%, 95% CI +0.9% to+3.6%; p<0.001), but this may have arisen due to changes in hospital admissions.ConclusionsWe found no evidence that reorganisation of emergency care was associated with a change in population mortality in the five areas studied. Further research should establish the economic consequences and impact on patient experience and neighbouring hospitals.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Family Physician Plan and Health Transformation Plan on Hospitalization Rates in Iran: An Interrupted Time Series

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samad Rouhani ◽  
Reza Esmaeili ◽  
Jamshid YazdaniCharati ◽  
Masoud Khandehroo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Family Physician ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Hospitalization Rate ◽  
Public Hospitals ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Low And Middle Income

Abstract Background : Low and middle income countries has recently implemented various reforms toward Universal Health Coverage (UHC). This study aims to assess the impact of Family Physician Plan (FPP) and Health Transformation Plan (HTP) on hospitalization rate in Iran.Methods: We conducted an Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design. The data was monthly hospitalization of Mazandaran province over a period of 7 years. Segmented regression analysis was applied in R version 3.6.1.Results: A decreasing trend by -0.056 for every month was found after implementation of Family Physician Plan, but this was not significant. Significant level change was appeared at the beginning of Health Transformation Plan and average of hospitalization rate increased by 1.04 (P<0.001). Also hospitalization trend increased significantly nearly 0.09 every month in period after Health Transformation Plan (P<0.001).Conclusions: Family physician created a decreasing trend for hospitalization. Development of FPP to urban area of Iran will lead to health system efficiency. HTP with lower user fee in public hospitals and clinics as well as fee-for-service mechanisms, stimulated both level and trend changes in hospital admissions. Some integrated health policy is required to optimize the implementation of diverse simultaneous reforms in low and middle-income countries.

scholarly journals 160. Evaluation of an Intervention to Promote Guideline-Concordant Durations of Antibiotic Therapy in Two Urgent Care Centers

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S96-S97
Author(s):  
Katherine C Shihadeh ◽  
Axel A Vazquez Deida ◽  
Cory Hussain ◽  
Bryan C Knepper ◽  
Lindsey Fish ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Acute Otitis Media ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Urgent Care ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Lower Urinary Tract Infection ◽  
Antibiotic Overuse ◽  
Days Of Therapy ◽  
Urgent Care Centers ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Antibiotic overuse in urgent cares is common. Despite institutional guidance that recommends ≤ 5 days of therapy for most infections, a prior review found prescribed durations were often longer. This study evaluates the impact of an intervention on guideline-concordant durations of therapy. Methods This quasi-experimental study involved two urgent care centers (UC1 and UC2) in an integrated health care system. Prescriptions were included from January 2017 to May 2021 for patients ≥ 18 years of age for one of the following infections identified by ICD10 code: acute bacterial sinusitis, acute otitis media, cellulitis or skin abscess, COPD exacerbation, lower urinary tract infection, or pneumonia. The intervention was implemented in both urgent cares in January 2020 and included sharing baseline duration of therapy data with site directors and staff, providing in-person education on recommended durations of therapy, engaging peer champions, and posting educational flyers. An institutional smart phone application (app) with treatment recommendations for common infections was in place for the entirety of the study. The primary outcome was the proportion of antibiotic durations that were guideline-concordant during the app only and intervention periods in aggregate and by interrupted time-series analysis. Results On average, 1583 and 3850 antibiotic prescriptions were prescribed per year in UC1 and UC2, respectively. There was a significant increase in the proportion of guideline-concordant antibiotic prescriptions at the two sites by an absolute value of 20% (p&lt; 0.0001) (Table). By interrupted time-series, the change in slope after the intervention was not statistically significant for UC1 (p= 0.11), UC2 (p= 0.73), or combined (p= 0.61); however, there was a significant increase in prescriptions for ≤ 5 days immediately after the intervention in UC1 (p= &lt; 0.001) (Figure). Conclusion This intervention to promote institutional guideline-concordant durations of therapy resulted in a significant increase in the proportion of antibiotic prescriptions for ≤ 5 days. Preventing prolonged durations of therapy is a potentially effective strategy to reduce antibiotic overuse in urgent cares. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals Correction to: Measuring the impact of the Afordable Care Act Medicaid expansion on access to primary care using an interrupted time series approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Brown ◽  
Brandi M. White ◽  
Walter J. Jones ◽  
Mulugeta Gebregziabher ◽  
Kit N. Simpson
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Medicaid Expansion ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
Access To Primary Care ◽  
The Impact

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

scholarly journals Does admission prevalence change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? An interrupted time series analysis of the impact of reconfiguration in five centres

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Inpatient Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Admission Prevalence

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.

Recession and risk of suicide in Denmark during the 2009 global financial crisis: an ecological register-based study

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110132
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konieczna ◽  
Sarah Grube Jakobsen ◽  
Christina Petrea Larsen ◽  
Erik Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Aim: The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact from the financial crisis (onset in 2009) on suicide rates in Denmark. The hypothesis is that the global financial crisis raised unemployment which leads to raising the suicide rate in Denmark and that the impact is most prominent in men. Method: This study used an ecological study design, including register data from 2001 until 2016 on unemployment, suicide, gender and calendar time which was analysed using Poisson regression models and interrupted time series analysis. Results: The correlation between unemployment and suicide rates was positive in the period and statistically significant for all, but at a moderate level. A dichotomised version of time (calendar year) showed a significant reduction in the suicide rate for women (incidence rate ratio 0.87, P=0.002). Interrupted time series analysis showed a significant decreasing trend for the overall suicide rate and for men in the pre-recession period, which in both cases stagnated after the onset of recession in 2009. The difference between the genders’ suicide rate changed significantly at the onset of recession, as the rate for men increased and the rate for women decreased. Discussion: The Danish social welfare model might have prevented social disintegration and suicide among unemployed, and suicide prevention programmes might have prevented deaths among unemployed and mentally ill individuals. Conclusions: We found some indications for gender-specific differences from the impact of the financial crises on the suicide rate. We recommend that men should be specifically targeted for appropriate prevention programmes during periods of economic downturn.

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