scholarly journals A Landscape Epidemiological Approach for Predicting Chronic Wasting Disease: A Case Study in Virginia, US

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven N. Winter ◽  
Megan S. Kirchgessner ◽  
Emmanuel A. Frimpong ◽  
Luis E. Escobar
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Data Partitioning ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Wildlife Diseases ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Wasting Disease

Many infectious diseases in wildlife occur under quantifiable landscape ecological patterns useful in facilitating epidemiological surveillance and management, though little is known about prion diseases. Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal prion disease of the deer family Cervidae, currently affects white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the Mid-Atlantic United States (US) and challenges wildlife veterinarians and disease ecologists from its unclear mechanisms and associations within landscapes, particularly in early phases of an outbreak when CWD detections are sparse. We aimed to provide guidance for wildlife disease management by identifying the extent to which CWD-positive cases can be reliably predicted from landscape conditions. Using the CWD outbreak in Virginia, US from 2009 to early 2020 as a case study system, we used diverse algorithms (e.g., principal components analysis, support vector machines, kernel density estimation) and data partitioning methods to quantify remotely sensed landscape conditions associated with CWD cases. We used various model evaluation tools (e.g., AUC ratios, cumulative binomial testing, Jaccard similarity) to assess predictions of disease transmission risk using independent CWD data. We further examined model variation in the context of uncertainty. We provided significant support that vegetation phenology data representing landscape conditions can predict and map CWD transmission risk. Model predictions improved when incorporating inferred home ranges instead of raw hunter-reported coordinates. Different data availability scenarios identified variation among models. By showing that CWD could be predicted and mapped, our project adds to the available tools for understanding the landscape ecology of CWD transmission risk in free-ranging populations and natural conditions. Our modeling framework and use of widely available landscape data foster replicability for other wildlife diseases and study areas.

scholarly journals An agent-based framework for improving wildlife disease surveillance: A case study of chronic wasting disease in Missouri white-tailed deer

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aniruddha V. Belsare ◽  
Matthew E. Gompper ◽  
Barbara Keller ◽  
Jason Sumners ◽  
Lonnie Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Wildlife Disease ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Sampling Effort ◽  
Wildlife Diseases ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Deer Population

AbstractEpidemiological surveillance for important wildlife diseases often relies on samples obtained from hunter-harvested animals. A problem, however, is that although convenient and cost-effective, hunter-harvest samples are not representative of the population due to heterogeneities in disease distribution and biased sampling. We developed an agent-based modeling framework that i) simulates a deer population in a user-generated landscape, and ii) uses a snapshot of the in silico deer population to simulate disease prevalence and distribution, harvest effort and sampling as per user-specified parameters. This framework can incorporate real-world heterogeneities in disease distribution, hunter harvest and harvest-based sampling, and therefore can be useful in informing wildlife disease surveillance strategies, specifically to determine population-specific sample sizes necessary for prompt detection of disease. Application of this framework is illustrated using the example of chronic wasting disease (CWD) surveillance in Missouri’s white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population. We show how confidence in detecting CWD is grossly overestimated under the unrealistic, but standard, assumptions that sampling effort and disease are randomly and independently distributed. We then provide adjusted sample size recommendations based on more realistic assumptions. These models can be readily adapted to other regions as well as other wildlife disease systems.

scholarly journals Size matters: Sample size assessments for chronic wasting disease surveillance using an agent-based modeling framework

MethodsX ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. 100953
Author(s):  
Aniruddha Belsare ◽  
Matthew Gompper ◽  
Barbara Keller ◽  
Jason Sumners ◽  
Lonnie Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sample Size ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Agent Based

scholarly journals Modeling Gender-Structured Wildlife Diseases with Harvesting: Chronic Wasting Disease as an Example

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mo'tassem Al-Arydah ◽  
Robert J. Smith ◽  
Frithjof Lutscher
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Wildlife Diseases ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Effective Strategies ◽  
Optimum Interval ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a prion infectious disease that affects members of the deer family in North America. Concerns about the economic consequences of the presence of CWD have led management agencies to seek effective strategies to control CWD distribution and prevalence. Current mathematical models are either based on complex simulations or overly simplified compartmental models. We develop a mathematical model that includes gender structure to describe CWD in a logistically growing population. The model includes harvesting as a management strategy for the disease. We determine the stability conditions of the disease-free equilibrium for the model and calculate the basic reproduction number. We find an optimum interval of harvesting: with too little harvesting, the disease persists, whereas too much harvesting results in extinction of the population. A sensitivity analysis shows that the disease threshold is more sensitive to female than male harvesting and that harvesting has the greatest effect on the basic reproduction number. However, while harvesting may be a way to control CWD, the range of admissible harvesting rates may be very narrow, depending on other parameters.

scholarly journals An agent-based framework for improving wildlife disease surveillance: A case study of chronic wasting disease in Missouri white-tailed deer

2020 ◽  
Vol 417 ◽  
pp. 108919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aniruddha V. Belsare ◽  
Matthew E. Gompper ◽  
Barbara Keller ◽  
Jason Sumners ◽  
Lonnie Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Wildlife Disease ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Agent Based

scholarly journals Chronic Wasting Disease Transmission Risk Assessment for Farmed Cervids in Minnesota and Wisconsin

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1586
Author(s):  
James M. Kincheloe ◽  
Dennis N. Makau ◽  
Scott J. Wells ◽  
Amy R. Horn-Delzer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Low Uncertainty ◽  
High Uncertainty

CWD (chronic wasting disease) has emerged as one of the most important diseases of cervids and continues to adversely affect farmed and wild cervid populations, despite control and preventive measures. This study aims to use the current scientific understanding of CWD transmission and knowledge of farmed cervid operations to conduct a qualitative risk assessment for CWD transmission to cervid farms and, applying this risk assessment, systematically describe the CWD transmission risks experienced by CWD-positive farmed cervid operations in Minnesota and Wisconsin. A systematic review of literature related to CWD transmission informed our criteria to stratify CWD transmission risks to cervid operations into high-risk low uncertainty, moderate-risk high uncertainty, and negligible-risk low uncertainty categories. Case data from 34 CWD-positive farmed cervid operations in Minnesota and Wisconsin from 2002 to January 2019 were categorized by transmission risks exposure and evaluated for trends. The majority of case farms recorded high transmission risks (56%), which were likely sources of CWD, but many (44%) had only moderate or negligible transmission risks, including most of the herds (62%) detected since 2012. The presence of CWD-positive cervid farms with only moderate or low CWD transmission risks necessitates further investigation of these risks to inform effective control measures.

scholarly journals Variation In The PRNP Gene Of Pere David’s Deer (Elaphurus Davidianus) May Impact Genetic Vulnerability To Chronic Wasting Disease

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tolulope I.N. Perrin-Stowe ◽  
Yasuko Ishida ◽  
Emily E. Terrill ◽  
Dan Beetem ◽  
Oliver A. Ryder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Captive Breeding ◽  
Chronic Wasting Disease ◽  
Balancing Selection ◽  
Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Spongiform Encephalopathy ◽  
Wasting Disease ◽  
Père David’S Deer ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Elaphurus Davidianus

Abstract Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy caused by prions that has spread across cervid species in North America since the 1960s and recently spread to cervids in Eurasia. The Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA) considers CWD to be of major concern for cervids in AZA-accredited facilities because of the indirect transmission risk of the disease and the impact of CWD regulatory protocols on captive breeding programs. Vulnerability to CWD is affected by variation in the PRNP gene that encodes the prion protein. We therefore sequenced PRNP in Pere David’s deer (Elaphurus davidianus), a species that was extinct in the wild for more than a century, and descends from ca. 11 founders. In 27 individuals, we detected two PRNP haplotypes, designated Elad1 (51 of 54 chromosomes) and Elad2 (3 of 54 chromosomes). The two haplotypes are separated by four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), three of which are non-synonymous. Both Elad1 and Elad2 have polymorphisms that in other cervid taxa are associated with reduced vulnerability to CWD. The two haplotypes are more similar in sequence to PRNP in other cervids than to each other. This suggests that PRNP in cervids may have been under long-term balancing selection, as has been shown for PRNP in non-cervid taxa, and which could account for the presence of multiple haplotypes among founders. There may be a fitness benefit in maintaining both PRNP haplotypes in the species because variation in the prion amino acid sequence can limit transmission of CWD.

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