scholarly journals A Novel Risk Assessment and Analysis Method for Correlation in a Complex System Based on Multi-Dimensional Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeyong Jiang ◽  
Tingdi Zhao ◽  
Shihai Wang ◽  
Fuchun Ren

With the rapid development of high integrations in large complex systems, such as aircraft, satellite, and railway systems, due to the increasingly complex coupling relationship between components within the system, local disturbances or faults may cause global effects on the system by fault propagation. Therefore, there are new challenges in safety analysis and risk assessment for complex systems. Aiming at analyzing and evaluating the inherent risks of the complex system with coupling correlation characteristics objectively, this paper proposes a novel risk assessment and analysis method for correlation in complex system based on multi-dimensional theory. Firstly, the formal description and coupling degree analysis method of the hierarchical structure of complex systems is established. Moreover, considering the three safety risk factors of fault propagation probability, potential severity, and fault propagation time, a multi-dimensional safety risk theory is proposed, in order to evaluate the risk of each element within the system effecting on the overall system. Furthermore, critical safety elements are identified based on Pareto rules, As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) principles, and safety risk entropy to support the preventive measures. Finally, an application of an avionics system is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Risk assessment is a process that allows us to understand risks, define risk criteria, assess the probability and the consequences of that risk occurring, define a level of risk we can tolerate and afford, and define a cost-effective and efficient mitigation treatment. The authors provide a risk assessment and analysis method that the reader can use to (1) build cultural risk into your organizational risk management profile and (2) adapt the organization's risk management profile to include cultural risks. The method builds upon but extends the ISO 31000/31010 risk management methodology to determine the level of cultural risk your organization is carrying. The authors walk through and translate each of the seven steps to account for cultural risks.


2005 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 335-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Ribeiro Pereira de Almeida ◽  
Anja Pratschke ◽  
Renata La Rocca

This paper draws on current research on complexity and design process in architecture and offers a proposal for how architects might bring complex thought to bear on the understanding of design process as a complex system, to understand architecture as a way of organizing events, and of organizing interaction. Our intention is to explore the hypothesis that the basic characteristics of complex systems – emergence, nonlinearity, self-organization, hologramaticity, and so forth – can function as effective tools for conceptualization that can usefully extend the understanding of the way architects think and act throughout the design process. To illustrate the discussions, we show how architects might bring complex thought inside a transdisciplinary design process by using models such as software engineering diagrams, and three-dimensional modeling network environments such as media to integrate, connect and ‘trans–act’.


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