scholarly journals Selection Consistency of Lasso-Based Procedures for Misspecified High-Dimensional Binary Model and Random Regressors

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz Kubkowski ◽  
Jan Mielniczuk

We consider selection of random predictors for a high-dimensional regression problem with a binary response for a general loss function. An important special case is when the binary model is semi-parametric and the response function is misspecified under a parametric model fit. When the true response coincides with a postulated parametric response for a certain value of parameter, we obtain a common framework for parametric inference. Both cases of correct specification and misspecification are covered in this contribution. Variable selection for such a scenario aims at recovering the support of the minimizer of the associated risk with large probability. We propose a two-step selection Screening-Selection (SS) procedure which consists of screening and ordering predictors by Lasso method and then selecting the subset of predictors which minimizes the Generalized Information Criterion for the corresponding nested family of models. We prove consistency of the proposed selection method under conditions that allow for a much larger number of predictors than the number of observations. For the semi-parametric case when distribution of random predictors satisfies linear regressions condition, the true and the estimated parameters are collinear and their common support can be consistently identified. This partly explains robustness of selection procedures to the response function misspecification.

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Qichang Xie ◽  
Meng Du

The essential task of risk investment is to select an optimal tracking portfolio among various portfolios. Statistically, this process can be achieved by choosing an optimal restricted linear model. This paper develops a statistical procedure to do this, based on selecting appropriate weights for averaging approximately restricted models. The method of weighted average least squares is adopted to estimate the approximately restricted models under dependent error setting. The optimal weights are selected by minimizing ak-class generalized information criterion (k-GIC), which is an estimate of the average squared error from the model average fit. This model selection procedure is shown to be asymptotically optimal in the sense of obtaining the lowest possible average squared error. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate that the suggested method has comparable efficiency to some alternative model selection techniques.


2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 947-959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gao Yingbin ◽  
Kong Xiangyu ◽  
Hu Changhua ◽  
Li Hongzeng ◽  
Hou Li'an

Author(s):  
Dwi Reskiyani Febrianti ◽  
Muhammad Arif Tiro ◽  
S. Sudarmin

Abstrak. Metode Vector Autoregressive (VAR) adalah salah satu analisis yang digunakan untuk menganalisis data deret waktu. Data deret waktu dikategorikan menurut interval waktu yang sama, baik dalam harian, mingguan, bulanan, kuartalan, ataupun tahunan. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) merupakan pemodelan yang tidak perlu menentukan variabel endogen dan variabel eksogen. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh kurs mata uang terhadap ekspor dan impor di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data kurs, ekspor, dan impor dari bulan Januari 2014 hingga Desember 2018. Uji stasioneritas dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF). Dalam penelitian ini menggunakan differencing terhadap data karena data tidak stasioner pada level. Penentuan panjang lag optimal diperoleh dari nilai Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) yang paling minimum. Estimasi model VAR diperoleh setelah penentuan panjang lag optimal. Uji kausalitas dilakukan dengan uji Causality Granger untuk melihat pengaruh timbal balik antar variabel yang diuji dalam penelitian ini. Terakhir menggunakan uji Impulse Response Function (IRF) untuk menelusuri guncangan atau shock suatu variabel terhadap variabel lainnya. Adapun hasil analisis yang diperoleh menunjukkan terdapat dua hubungan satu arah yaitu kurs mempengaruhi ekspor dan ekspor mempengaruhi impor.Kata Kunci: VAR, Kurs, Ekspor, Impor.


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