scholarly journals Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 4657
Author(s):  
Ignacio Mauleón
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Primary Energy Demand ◽  
World Energy ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

The primary purpose of this research is to assess the long-range energy demand assumption made in relevant Roadmaps for the transformation to a low-carbon energy system. A novel interdisciplinary approach is then implemented: a new model is estimated for the aggregated world primary energy demand with long historical time series for world energy, income, and population for the years 1900–2017. The model is used to forecast energy demand in 2050 and assess the uncertainty-derived risk based on the variances of the series and parameters analysed. The results show that large efficiency savings—up to 50% in some cases and never observed before—are assumed in the main Roadmaps. This discrepancy becomes significantly higher when even moderate uncertainty assumptions are taken into account. A discussion on possible future sources of breaks in current patterns of energy supply and demand is also presented, leading to a new conclusion requiring an active political stance to accelerate efficiency savings and lifestyle changes that reduce energy demand, even if energy consumption may be reduced significantly. This will likely include replacing the income-growth paradigm with other criteria based on prosperity or related measures.

Primary Energy System Chain Security Under the Energy Transition

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osamah Alsayegh
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
System Security ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

Abstract This paper examines the energy transition consequences on the oil and gas energy system chain as it propagates from net importing through the transit to the net exporting countries (or regions). The fundamental energy system security concerns of importing, transit, and exporting regions are analyzed under the low carbon energy transition dynamics. The analysis is evidence-based on diversification of energy sources, energy supply and demand evolution, and energy demand management development. The analysis results imply that the energy system is going through technological and logistical reallocation of primary energy. The manifestation of such reallocation includes an increase in electrification, the rise of energy carrier options, and clean technologies. Under healthy and normal global economic growth, the reallocation mentioned above would have a mild effect on curbing the oil and gas primary energy demands growth. A case study concerning electric vehicles, which is part of the energy transition aspect, is presented to assess its impact on the energy system, precisely on the fossil fuel demand. Results show that electric vehicles are indirectly fueled, mainly from fossil-fired power stations through electric grids. Moreover, oil byproducts use in the electric vehicle industry confirms the reallocation of the energy system components' roles. The paper's contribution to the literature is the portrayal of the energy system security state under the low carbon energy transition. The significance of this representation is to shed light on the concerns of the net exporting, transit, and net importing regions under such evolution. Subsequently, it facilitates the development of measures toward mitigating world tensions and conflicts, enhancing the global socio-economic wellbeing, and preventing corruption.

How might controlled fusion fit into the emerging low-carbon energy system of the mid-twenty-first century?

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2184) ◽  
pp. 20200009
Author(s):  
G. R. Tynan ◽  
A. Abdulla
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fusion Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
First Century ◽  
Inertial Confinement ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Capital Costs ◽  
Controlled Fusion ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

We examine the characteristics that fusion-based generation technologies will need to have if they are to compete in the emerging low-carbon energy system of the mid-twenty-first century. It is likely that the majority of future electric energy demand will be provided by the lowest marginal cost energy technology—which in many regions will be stochastically varying renewable solar and wind electric generation coupled to systems that provide up to a few days of energy storage. Firm low-carbon or zero-carbon resources based on gas-fired turbines with carbon capture, advanced fission reactors, hydroelectric and perhaps engineered geothermal systems will then be used to provide the balance of load in a highly dynamic system operating in competitive markets governed by merit-order pricing mechanisms that select the lowest-cost supplies to meet demand. These firm sources will have overnight capital costs in the range of a few $/Watt, be capable of cycling down to a fraction of their maximum power output, operate profitably at low utilization fraction, and have a suitable unit size of order 100 MW e . If controlled fusion using either magnetic confinement or inertial confinement approaches is to have any chance of providing a material contribution to future electrical energy needs, it must demonstrate these key qualities and at the same time prove robust safety characteristics that avoid the perceived dread risk that plagues nuclear fission power, avoid the generation of long-lived radioactive waste and demonstrate highly reliable operations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Prospects for high gain inertial fusion energy (part 1)’.

scholarly journals Sustainable Development Goals through Energy cooperation in ASEAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 202 ◽  
pp. 01005
Author(s):  
N. Agya Utama ◽  
Akbar Swandaru ◽  
Hoy-Yen Chan ◽  
Nadilah Shani
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Primary Energy Demand ◽  
Great Progress ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Primary Energy Supply ◽  
Efficient Power

The ASEAN primary energy demand to grow by an average of 3.4% per year from 627 to reach 1,450 million tons of oil equivalent by 2040. In the alignment to accelerating the energy transition through the ASEAN, the region is aiming to reach 23% of RE in the total primary energy supply (TPES). With the five-year remaining, ASEAN has a lot opportunity to accelerate the effort. This research presents overview of the shaping of the renewables and low-carbon power utilisation which has been in the action plan to optimise effective and efficient power utilisation. It will be presented in the study report, the alignment of low-carbon society and renewable energy promotion in ASEAN has been in great progress considering its attempt to improve all power utilisation lineage.

scholarly journals The reliability of long – term energy forecasts

2015 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 111-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bożena Boryczko ◽  
Zygmunt Kolenda ◽  
Wojciech Nowak
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Primary Energy Demand ◽  
Term Energy ◽  
Fundamental Value ◽  
Global Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Forecast

Abstract The paper demonstrates that the possibilities of producing reliable long-term energy forecast are limited. Global economic growth is so dynamic that the changes resulting from scientific and technological progress, which we experience, do not allow for the identification of goals over longer time intervals. For this reason, forecasting up to 2035, 2040, 2060 is devoid of its fundamental value, which is the reliability of results obtained. Are predictions to be conservative (this applies to richer countries) or are they to produce a paradigm shift by, for example, strongly imposing the requirement of increasing energy security, which is important for our country? In light of the broadness of the issues, this paper is limited to considerations relating to forecasting the primary energy demand. Detailed examples are presented for the Polish energy system.

A PSO–GA optimal model to estimate primary energy demand of China

Energy Policy ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 329-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiwei Yu ◽  
Yi-Ming Wei ◽  
Ke Wang
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Optimal Model ◽  
Primary Energy Demand

An environmental impact analysis method of machine-tool cutting units based on LCA

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junli Shi ◽  
Junyu Hu ◽  
Mingyang Ma ◽  
Huaizhi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Machine Tool ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Environmental Impact Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Primary Energy Demand ◽  
Tool Cutting

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a method for the environmental impact analysis of machine-tool cutting, which enables the detailed analysis of inventory data on resource consumption and waste emissions, as well as the quantitative evaluation of environmental impact. Design/methodology/approach The proposed environmental impact analysis method is based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. In this method, the system boundary of the cutting unit is first defined, and inventory data on energy and material consumptions are analyzed. Subsequently, through classification, five important environmental impact categories are proposed, namely, primary energy demand, global warming potential, acidification potential, eutrophication potential and photochemical ozone creation potential. Finally, the environmental impact results are obtained through characterization and normalization. Findings This method is applied on a case study involving a machine-tool turning unit. Results show that primary energy demand and global warming potential exert the serious environmental impact in the turning unit. Suggestions for improving the environmental performance of the machine-tool turning are proposed. Originality/value The environmental impact analysis method is applicable to different machine tools and cutting-unit processes. Moreover, it can guide and support the development of green manufacturing by machinery manufacturers.

Optimization of the energy supply in the plastics industry to reduce the primary energy demand

2018 ◽  
Vol 192 ◽  
pp. 790-800 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Dunkelberg ◽  
Johannes Wagner ◽  
Conrad Hannen ◽  
B. Alexander Schlüter ◽  
Long Phan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Supply ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Primary Energy Demand ◽  
Plastics Industry
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document