Primary Energy System Chain Security Under the Energy Transition

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osamah Alsayegh
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
System Security ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

Abstract This paper examines the energy transition consequences on the oil and gas energy system chain as it propagates from net importing through the transit to the net exporting countries (or regions). The fundamental energy system security concerns of importing, transit, and exporting regions are analyzed under the low carbon energy transition dynamics. The analysis is evidence-based on diversification of energy sources, energy supply and demand evolution, and energy demand management development. The analysis results imply that the energy system is going through technological and logistical reallocation of primary energy. The manifestation of such reallocation includes an increase in electrification, the rise of energy carrier options, and clean technologies. Under healthy and normal global economic growth, the reallocation mentioned above would have a mild effect on curbing the oil and gas primary energy demands growth. A case study concerning electric vehicles, which is part of the energy transition aspect, is presented to assess its impact on the energy system, precisely on the fossil fuel demand. Results show that electric vehicles are indirectly fueled, mainly from fossil-fired power stations through electric grids. Moreover, oil byproducts use in the electric vehicle industry confirms the reallocation of the energy system components' roles. The paper's contribution to the literature is the portrayal of the energy system security state under the low carbon energy transition. The significance of this representation is to shed light on the concerns of the net exporting, transit, and net importing regions under such evolution. Subsequently, it facilitates the development of measures toward mitigating world tensions and conflicts, enhancing the global socio-economic wellbeing, and preventing corruption.

scholarly journals Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 4657
Author(s):  
Ignacio Mauleón
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Primary Energy Demand ◽  
World Energy ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

The primary purpose of this research is to assess the long-range energy demand assumption made in relevant Roadmaps for the transformation to a low-carbon energy system. A novel interdisciplinary approach is then implemented: a new model is estimated for the aggregated world primary energy demand with long historical time series for world energy, income, and population for the years 1900–2017. The model is used to forecast energy demand in 2050 and assess the uncertainty-derived risk based on the variances of the series and parameters analysed. The results show that large efficiency savings—up to 50% in some cases and never observed before—are assumed in the main Roadmaps. This discrepancy becomes significantly higher when even moderate uncertainty assumptions are taken into account. A discussion on possible future sources of breaks in current patterns of energy supply and demand is also presented, leading to a new conclusion requiring an active political stance to accelerate efficiency savings and lifestyle changes that reduce energy demand, even if energy consumption may be reduced significantly. This will likely include replacing the income-growth paradigm with other criteria based on prosperity or related measures.

Technology Focus: Offshore Facilities (September 2021)

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (09) ◽  
pp. 50-50
Author(s):  
Ardian Nengkoda
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
The Past ◽  
Offshore Technology ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Offshore Oil And Gas ◽  
Offshore Oil ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

For this feature, I have had the pleasure of reviewing 122 papers submitted to SPE in the field of offshore facilities over the past year. Brent crude oil price finally has reached $75/bbl at the time of writing. So far, this oil price is the highest since before the COVID-19 pandemic, which is a good sign that demand is picking up. Oil and gas offshore projects also seem to be picking up; most offshore greenfield projects are dictated by economics and the price of oil. As predicted by some analysts, global oil consumption will continue to increase as the world’s economy recovers from the pandemic. A new trend has arisen, however, where, in addition to traditional economic screening, oil and gas investors look to environment, social, and governance considerations to value the prospects of a project and minimize financial risk from environmental and social issues. The oil price being around $75/bbl has not necessarily led to more-attractive offshore exploration and production (E&P) projects, even though the typical offshore breakeven price is in the range of $40–55/bbl. We must acknowledge the energy transition, while also acknowledging that oil and natural gas will continue to be essential to meeting the world’s energy needs for many years. At least five European oil and gas E&P companies have announced net-zero 2050 ambitions so far. According to Rystad Energy, continuous major investments in E&P still are needed to meet growing global oil and gas demand. For the past 2 years, the global investment in E&P project spending is limited to $200 billion, including offshore, so a situation might arise with reserve replacement becoming challenging while demand accelerates rapidly. Because of well productivity, operability challenges, and uncertainty, however, opening the choke valve or pipeline tap is not as easy as the public thinks, especially on aging facilities. On another note, the technology landscape is moving to emerging areas such as net-zero; decarbonization; carbon capture, use, and storage; renewables; hydrogen; novel geothermal solutions; and a circular carbon economy. Historically, however, the Offshore Technology Conference began proactively discussing renewables technology—such as wave, tidal, ocean thermal, and solar—in 1980. The remaining question, then, is how to balance the lack of capital expenditure spending during the pandemic and, to some extent, what the role of offshore is in the energy transition. Maximizing offshore oil and gas recovery is not enough anymore. In the short term, engaging the low-carbon energy transition as early as possible and leading efforts in decarbonization will become a strategic move. Leveraging our expertise in offshore infrastructure, supply chains, sea transportation, storage, and oil and gas market development to support low-carbon energy deployment in the energy transition will become vital. We have plenty of technical knowledge and skill to offer for offshore wind projects, for instance. The Hywind wind farm offshore Scotland is one example of a project that is using the same spar technology as typical offshore oil and gas infrastructure. Innovation, optimization, effective use of capital and operational expenditures, more-affordable offshore technology, and excellent project management, no doubt, also will become a new normal offshore. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. SPE 202911 - Harnessing Benefits of Integrated Asset Modeling for Bottleneck Management of Large Offshore Facilities in the Matured Giant Oil Field by Yukito Nomura, ADNOC, et al. OTC 30970 - Optimizing Deepwater Rig Operations With Advanced Remotely Operated Vehicle Technology by Bernard McCoy Jr., TechnipFMC, et al. OTC 31089 - From Basic Engineering to Ramp-Up: The New Successful Execution Approach for Commissioning in Brazil by Paulino Bruno Santos, Petrobras, et al.

How might controlled fusion fit into the emerging low-carbon energy system of the mid-twenty-first century?

2020 ◽  
Vol 378 (2184) ◽  
pp. 20200009
Author(s):  
G. R. Tynan ◽  
A. Abdulla
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fusion Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
First Century ◽  
Inertial Confinement ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Capital Costs ◽  
Controlled Fusion ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

We examine the characteristics that fusion-based generation technologies will need to have if they are to compete in the emerging low-carbon energy system of the mid-twenty-first century. It is likely that the majority of future electric energy demand will be provided by the lowest marginal cost energy technology—which in many regions will be stochastically varying renewable solar and wind electric generation coupled to systems that provide up to a few days of energy storage. Firm low-carbon or zero-carbon resources based on gas-fired turbines with carbon capture, advanced fission reactors, hydroelectric and perhaps engineered geothermal systems will then be used to provide the balance of load in a highly dynamic system operating in competitive markets governed by merit-order pricing mechanisms that select the lowest-cost supplies to meet demand. These firm sources will have overnight capital costs in the range of a few $/Watt, be capable of cycling down to a fraction of their maximum power output, operate profitably at low utilization fraction, and have a suitable unit size of order 100 MW e . If controlled fusion using either magnetic confinement or inertial confinement approaches is to have any chance of providing a material contribution to future electrical energy needs, it must demonstrate these key qualities and at the same time prove robust safety characteristics that avoid the perceived dread risk that plagues nuclear fission power, avoid the generation of long-lived radioactive waste and demonstrate highly reliable operations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Prospects for high gain inertial fusion energy (part 1)’.

Low Carbon Transition of Power System in China: Pathways and Policy Design Implications

2011 ◽  
Vol 361-363 ◽  
pp. 1832-1836
Author(s):  
Chang Hong Zhao ◽  
Yan Xu ◽  
Jia Hai Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Policy Design ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Transition Management ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Package Design ◽  
Electricity System ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

This paper studies the low carbon transition of electricity system in China. The paper describes the approach, which builds on transitions and transition management using a multi-level perspective (MLP) of niches, socio-technical regime and landscape. A MLP analysis on China’s power sector is presented to understand the current landscape, regime and niches. Five transition pathways with their possible technology options are presented. The paper goes further to propose an interactive management framework for low carbon energy system transition in China and reprehensive technology options are appraised to indicate the policy package design logic in the framework. The work in the paper will be useful in informing policy-makers and other stakeholders and may provide reference value for other countries for energy transition management.

scholarly journals Energetic regimes of the global economy – past, present and future

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Jarvis ◽  
Carey King
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Economic Productivity ◽  
Thermodynamic Structure ◽  
Gross World Product ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

Abstract. For centuries both engineers and economists have collaborated to attempt to raise economic productivity through efficiency improvements. Global primary energy use (PEU) and gross world product (GWP) data 1950–2018 reveal a the effects of aggregate energy efficiency (AEE) improvements since the 1950's have been characterised by two distinct behavioural regimes. Prior to the energy supply shocks in the 1970s the AEE of the global economy was remarkably constant such that PEU and GWP growth were fully coupled. We suggest this regime is associated with attempts to maximise growth in GWP. In contrast, in the 1970s the global economy transitioned to a lower growth regime that promoted maximising growth in AEE such that GWP growth is maximised while simultaneously attempting to minimise PEU growth, a regime that appears to persist to this day. Low carbon energy transition scenarios generally present the perceived ability to raise growth in AEE at least three fold from 2020 as a tactic to slow greenhouse gas emissions via lower PEU growth. Although the 1970s indicate rapid transitions in patterns of energy use are possible, our results suggest that any promise to reduce carbon emissions based on enhancing the rate of efficiency improvements could prove difficult to realise in practice because the growth rates of AEE, PEU and GWP do not evolve independently, but rather co-evolve in ways that reflect the underlying thermodynamic structure of the economy.

scholarly journals The rise of renewables and energy transition: what adaptation strategy exists for oil companies and oil-exporting countries?

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 45-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bassam Fattouh ◽  
Rahmatallah Poudineh ◽  
Rob West
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Future Market ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Long Run

Abstract The energy landscape is changing rapidly with far-reaching implications for the global energy industry and actors, including oil companies and oil-exporting countries. These rapid changes introduce multidimensional uncertainty, the most important of which is the speed of the transition. While the transformation of the energy system is rapid in certain regions of the world, such as Europe, the speed of the global energy transition remains highly uncertain. It is also difficult to define the end game (which technology will win and what the final energy mix will be), as the outcome of transition is likely to vary across regions. In this context, oil companies are facing a strategic dilemma: attempt the risky transition to low-carbon technologies by moving beyond their core business or just focus on maximising their return from their hydrocarbon assets. We argue that, due to the high uncertainty, oil companies need to develop strategies that are likely to be successful under a wide set of possible future market conditions. Furthermore, the designed strategies need to be flexible and evolve quickly in response to anticipated changes in the market. For oil-exporting countries, there is no trade-off involved in renewable deployment as such investments can liberate oil and gas for export markets, improving the economics of domestic renewables projects. In the long run, however, the main challenge for many oil countries is economic and income diversification as this represents the ultimate safeguard against the energy transition. Whether or not these countries succeed in their goal of achieving a diversified economy and revenue base has implications for investment in the oil sector and oil prices and consequently for the speed of the global energy transition.

Guest Editorial: Braver, Bolder, and Better: Breaking the Silo Paralysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (05) ◽  
pp. 10-11
Author(s):  
Graeme Gordon ◽  
Craig Shanaghey
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Collaborative Partnerships ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Hydrocarbon Production ◽  
New Thinking ◽  
To Come ◽  
Mind Set ◽  
Low Carbon Energy ◽  
The Way

As we continue to adapt and evolve to meet the changing needs of our fast-moving world, we see a sizable and growing prize for those who are willing to work and think differently, challenge traditional approaches, forge new working relationships, and act boldly. This topic is one of the ten keynote program sessions at the 2021 SPE Offshore Europe (https://www.offshore-europe.co.uk/) to be held 7–10 September in Aberdeen to drive disruptive and forward-thinking conversations around the conference theme “Oil & Gas: Working Together for a Net-Zero Future.” Since 2019 SPE Offshore Europe, we have witnessed significant change, even before we consider the effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic. Societal interest in the climate and energy has rightly risen up the agenda, and the scale of expectation and pace of change demanded of our industry is high. The need to accelerate the energy transition by investing in cleaner, low-carbon energy production is clear. But oil and gas will remain critical as major contributors to the energy mix for decades to come, and so responsible hydrocarbon production has a crucial role to play in the transition, underlined by the recently published UK Government North Sea Transition Deal. So how can we be braver, bolder, and better—as individuals, as companies, and as an industry—to grasp that opportunity for change and do something positive with it? We hear a lot about collaboration and its necessity, yet Oil & Gas UK’s (OGUK) 2020 collaboration survey indicates that perhaps, despite the best of intent, it is not universally translating into practice. The term collaboration has somewhat lost its true meaning, perhaps through overuse and a shortage of genuinely collaborative partnerships to inspire us. We can all tend to use the term loosely, forgetting that true collaboration can generate incredibly far-reaching and tangible value. We simply must put this right if our industry is to turn the challenge of the energy transition into an opportunity to thrive. Partnering To Empower the Energy Transition The first critical step to achieve greater collaboration is to acknowledge and accept that no individual, no organization, has all the answers. Never has this been truer than now—as we seek to effect one of the greatest changes our industry has ever faced and are duty-bound to find new solutions at pace and scale. Rather than feeling we must each be the sole creator of our own solutions, organizations need to be better at articulating their problem and even better at inviting others to participate in the solution. We will not solve tomorrow’s problems with yesterday’s ideas—we must cultivate innovation and disruption in the way that we engage with one another and in the way that we work together. A real blocker in realizing that mind-set shift is often in the letter of our contracts. We feel so bound by the formal confines of our relationships with one another that we become unable or unwilling to explore new thinking, to be receptive to new ideas, and to create the space for the disruption that we so need. We must recognize trust as a key attribute of successful, collaborative partnerships.

Seasonal storage of hydrogen in porous formations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katriona Edlmann ◽  
Niklas Heinemann ◽  
Leslie Mabon ◽  
Julien Mouli-Castillo ◽  
Ali Hassanpouryouzband ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Hydrogen Storage ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Geological Storage ◽  
Porous Rocks ◽  
Low Carbon Energy

<p>To meet global commitments to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, the energy mix must reduce emissions from fossil fuels and transition to low carbon energy sources.  Hydrogen can support this transition by replacing natural gas for heat and power generation, decarbonising transport, and facilitating increased renewable energy by acting as an energy store to balance supply and demand. For the deployment at scale of green hydrogen (produced from renewables) and blue hydrogen (produced from steam reformation of methane) storage at different scales will be required, depending on the supply and demand scenarios. Production of blue hydrogen generates CO<sub>2</sub> as a by-product and requires carbon capture and storage (CCS) for carbon emission mitigation.  Near-future blue hydrogen production projects, such as the Acorn project located in Scotland, could require hydrogen storage alongside large-scale CO<sub>2 </sub>storage. Green hydrogen storage projects, such as renewable energy storage in rural areas e.g. Orkney in Scotland, will require smaller and more flexible low investment hydrogen storage sites. Our research shows that the required capacity can exist as engineered geological storage reservoirs onshore and offshore UK. We will give an overview of the hydrogen capacity required for the energy transition and assess the associated scales of storage required, where geological storage in porous media will compete with salt cavern storage as well as surface storage such as line packing or tanks.</p><p>We will discuss the key aspects and results of subsurface hydrogen storage in porous rocks including the potential reactivity of the brine / hydrogen / rock system along with the efficiency of multiple cycles of hydrogen injection and withdrawal through cushion gasses in porous rocks. We will also discuss societal views on hydrogen storage, exploring how geological hydrogen storage is positioned within the wider context of how hydrogen is produced, and what the place of hydrogen is in a low-carbon society. Based on what some of the key opinion-shapers are saying already, the key considerations for public and stakeholder opinion are less likely to be around risk perception and safety of hydrogen, but focussed on questions like ‘who benefits?’ ‘why do we need hydrogen in a low-carbon society?’ and ‘how can we do this in the public interest and not for the profits of private companies?’</p><p>We conclude that underground hydrogen storage in porous rocks can be an essential contributor to the low carbon energy transition.</p>

An Energy Transition Scenario for the State of Kuwait

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Osamah A. Alsayegh ◽  
Fotouh A. Al-Ragom
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Energy Mix ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
The State Of Kuwait ◽  
Transition Scenario

With population of 3.9 million and area of 17,818 km2, the State of Kuwait holds about 8% and 1% of the world proven oil and gas reserves, respectively. Its total primary energy (oil and gas) production is about 3.5 million barrel oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d). Yet, Kuwait is facing energy challenges as a result of high and rapid growth of domestic energy consumption that has reached 18% of its total primary energy production. Therefore, adopting policies to transform the present energy system to a sustainable system has become indispensable national requirement. In this paper, a transition scenario for Kuwait’s energy system is proposed. The transition scenario addresses both the supply and demand sides through diversifying primary energy mix and energy demand management measures. The energy mix scenario is the optimum outcome of MARKAL-TIMES model of the energy system of Kuwait. Modeling results show that meeting 10% of the country’s energy demand through the exploitation of solar and wind energies by 2030 is the technical and economical optimal scenario. While the demand management measures are based on pilot energy conservation and efficiency study that shows energy saving could reach 24% and leading to savings of 4% reduction in power installation capacity. Utilization of efficient water desalination systems can reduce national energy consumption by 5%. The paper concludes with policy implications that are essential to launch the transformation toward sustainability.

scholarly journals European Cities in the Energy Transition: A Preliminary Analysis of 27 Cities

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Estitxu Villamor ◽  
Ortzi Akizu-Gardoki ◽  
Olatz Azurza ◽  
Leire Urkidi ◽  
Alvaro Campos-Celador ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Leading Role ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Low Carbon Energy ◽  
Current Energy

Nowadays, there is a wide scientific consensus about the unsustainability of the current energy system and at the same time, social awareness about climate change and the IPCC’s goals is increasing in Europe. Amongst the different pathways towards them, one alternative is the radical transition to a democratic low-carbon energy system where the local scale has a key leading role. Under this scope, this research is framed within the mPOWER project, financed by the European Commission’s H2020 programme, which promotes collaboration among different European municipalities in order to boost the transition to a renewable-based participatory energy system. This paper presents the starting point of the mPOWER project, where the main energy features of 27 selected European municipalities are collected and analysed for the year 2016. An open public tender and selection process was carried out among European cities in order to choose the candidates to participate in mPOWER project. A view of this situation will be taken by the mPOWER project as a diagnostic baseline for the following steps: a peer-to-peer knowledge-sharing process among these European municipalities, and subsequently, among a more extensive group. The first finding of the paper is that, even if those municipalities are trying to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, they are highly dependent on fossil fuels, even in cases where renewable energies have significant presence. Second, their energy consumption is logarithmically related to the human development index and gross domestic product but not to the size of the cities and their climate characteristics. Finally, despite the work that these cities are making towards energy transition in general and within the mPOWER project in particular, the paper shows a high difficulty mapping their energy systems. The lack of accurate and unified data by the municipalities is a sign of disempowerment at a local and public level in the energy sphere and makes difficult any strategy to advance towards a bottom-up energy transition. Among other goals, the mPOWER project aims to reveal these kinds of difficulties and help local authorities in managing their transition paths.

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