Miombo and mopane woodlands are the dominant land cover in southern Africa. Ecosystem services from these woodlands support the livelihoods of 100 M rural people and 50 M urban dwellers, and others beyond the region. Provisioning services contribute $9 ± 2 billion yr
−1
to rural livelihoods; 76% of energy used in the region is derived from woodlands; and traded woodfuels have an annual value of $780 M. Woodlands support much of the region's agriculture through transfers of nutrients to fields and shifting cultivation. Woodlands store 18–24 PgC carbon, and harbour a unique and diverse flora and fauna that provides spiritual succour and attracts tourists. Longstanding processes that will impact service provision are the expansion of croplands (0.1 M km
2
; 2000–2014), harvesting of woodfuels (93 M tonnes yr
−1
) and changing access arrangements. Novel, exogenous changes include large-scale land acquisitions (0.07 M km
2
; 2000–2015), climate change and rising CO
2
. The net ecological response to these changes is poorly constrained, as they act in different directions, and differentially on trees and grasses, leading to uncertainty in future service provision. Land-use change and socio-political dynamics are likely to be dominant forces of change in the short term, but important land-use dynamics remain unquantified.
This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’.
Large-Scale Land Use for Construction and Energy Consumption after the New Millennium with Their Impact on Total-Factor Efficiency Change in China’s Regional Economy
