scholarly journals Seismic Risk of Infrastructure Systems with Treatment of and Sensitivity to Epistemic Uncertainty

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 103
Author(s):  
Francesco Cavalieri ◽  
Paolo Franchin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Infrastructure Systems ◽  
Gas Network ◽  
Assessment Problems

Modern society’s very existence is tied to the proper and reliable functioning of its Critical Infrastructure (CI) systems. In the seismic risk assessment of an infrastructure, taking into account all the relevant uncertainties affecting the problem is crucial. While both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties affect the estimate of seismic risk to an infrastructure and should be considered, the focus herein is on the latter. After providing an up-to-date literature review about the treatment of and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty, this paper presents a comprehensive framework for seismic risk assessment of interdependent spatially distributed infrastructure systems that accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and provides confidence in the estimate, as well as sensitivity of uncertainty in the output to the components of epistemic uncertainty in the input. The logic tree approach is used for the treatment of epistemic uncertainty and for the sensitivity analysis, whose results are presented through tornado diagrams. Sensitivity is also evaluated by elaborating the logic tree results through weighted ANOVA. The formulation is general and can be applied to risk assessment problems involving not only infrastructural but also structural systems. The presented methodology was implemented into an open-source software, OOFIMS, and applied to a synthetic city composed of buildings and a gas network and subjected to seismic hazard. The gas system’s performance is assessed through a flow-based analysis. The seismic hazard, the vulnerability assessment and the evaluation of the gas system’s operational state are addressed with a simulation-based approach. The presence of two systems (buildings and gas network) proves the capability to handle system interdependencies and highlights that uncertainty in models/parameters related to one system can affect uncertainty in the output related to dependent systems.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Synthetic Ground Motion Generation for Seismic Risk Assessment of Structures in the Northeast India

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Swarup Ghosh ◽  
Subrata Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
Site Specific

This article outlines the performance-based seismic risk assessment (PBSRA) of structures requiring probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to obtain hazard curves and an evaluation of the demand model by a nonlinear structural response analysis under properly selected ground motion records. Unfortunately, such site-specific information is not readily available for Northeast region of India. The present study focuses on these two aspects to supplement the PBSRA. The estimations of hazard curves are demonstrated by considering the seismicity within 300 km radius around the considered locations and specified exposure period. Due to limited availability of natural records in this region, synthetic accelerograms are generated using stochastic point source models by identifying the most contributing magnitude distance combinations from disaggregation of the PSHA results. The significant variabilities observed in the estimated hazard, synthetic accelerograms and nonlinear building responses in the various locations indicate the need of explicit site-specific analysis for PBRSA of structures in the region.

scholarly journals Data‐Driven Seismic‐Hazard Models Prepared for a Seismic Risk Assessment in the Dead Sea Region

2016 ◽  
Vol 106 (6) ◽  
pp. 2584-2598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Haas ◽  
Amotz Agnon ◽  
Dino Bindi ◽  
Stefano Parolai ◽  
Massimiliano Pittore
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Hazard Models ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
The Dead

scholarly journals Development of an Exposure Vulnerability Index Map Using GIS Modeling for Preliminary Seismic Risk Assessment in Sabah, Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-119
Author(s):  
Noor Suhaiza Sauti ◽  
Mohd Effendi Daud ◽  
Masiri Kaamin ◽  
Suhaila Sahat
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Assessment ◽  
High Exposure ◽  
Gis Modeling

This research was conducted with a view to updating the management of earthquakes through an exposure vulnerability and potential seismic risk assessment, along with its application in Sabah (a state in East Malaysia). A set of indicators and methodologies has been proposed in this study with the goal of evaluating the level of exposure vulnerability and potential risk of certain locations to earthquake events at the local district scale. This study specifically involves the development of exposure vulnerability indicators; the statistical analysis method to standardize multivariate data together with a weight calculation of indicator variables; and a mathematical combination of different indicators for the development of the index map using the spatial analysis function of Geographical Information System (GIS) tools. Then, the derived exposure vulnerability index (EVI) map is overlaid with the seismic hazard in determining the geographical location of the most vulnerable areas and their exposure to seismic hazard events. As a result, and based on the available data, the exposure vulnerability index map shows that most districts in Sabah are at relatively low and moderate levels of risk except for a few districts, with several major cities in Sabah, such as Kota Kinabalu, Penampang, Sandakan and Tawau municipality, being situated at a high or very high exposure index. The combination of EVI maps and hazard maps indicate the dominance of the two factors influencing the potential level of earthquake risk. Studies reveal most of the southwest and central parts of the region are not at risk, as both exposure and hazard factors are at a low level. The proposed approach depicts an instrument for identifying cost-effective risk reduction initiatives by providing a scientific method for regional risk planning and management strategies. This research represents the first attempt to evaluate Sabah’s vulnerability to this type of natural disaster by understanding the spatial relationship between exposure vulnerability and earthquake hazard, which undoubtedly could be improved in several aspects.

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