scholarly journals Predicting the Storm Surge Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 437-476 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Forbes ◽  
Jamie Rhome ◽  
Craig Mattocks ◽  
Arthur Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Storm Surge ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Weather Service

scholarly journals Operational Wave Guidance at the U.S. National Weather Service during Tropical/Post–Tropical Storm Sandy, October 2012*

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (5) ◽  
pp. 1687-1702 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves ◽  
Scott Stripling ◽  
Arun Chawla ◽  
Hendrik Tolman ◽  
Andre van der Westhuysen
Keyword(s):  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Historical Event ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Private Industry ◽  
Western Atlantic ◽  
High Skill ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Waves generated during Hurricane Sandy (October 2012) contributed significantly to life and property losses along the eastern U.S. seaboard. Extreme waves generated by Sandy propagated inland riding high water levels, causing direct destruction of property and infrastructure. High waves also contributed to the observed record-breaking storm surges. Operational wave-model guidance provided by the U.S. National Weather Service, via numerical model predictions made at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), gave decision makers accurate information that helped mitigate the severity of this historical event. The present study provides a comprehensive performance assessment of operational models used by NCEP during Hurricane Sandy, and makes a brief review of reports issued by government agencies, private industry, and universities, indicating the importance of the interplay of waves and surges during the hurricane. Performance of wave models is assessed through validation made relative to western Atlantic NOAA/NDBC buoys that recorded significant wave heights exceeding 6 m (19.7 ft). Bulk validation statistics indicate a high skill of operational wave forecasts up to and beyond the 3-day range. Event-based validation reveals a remarkably high skill of NCEP’s wave ensemble system, with significant added value in its data for longer forecasts beyond the 72-h range. The study concludes with considerations about the extent of severe sea-state footprints during Sandy, the dissemination of real-time wave forecasts, and its impacts to emergency management response, as well as recent upgrades and future developments at NCEP that will improve the skill of its current wave forecasting systems, resulting in more reliable wave forecasts during life-threatening severe storm events in the future.

An Analysis of 2016-2018 Tornadoes and National Weather Service Tornado Warnings across the contiguous United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan S. Bentley ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Barry R. Bowers ◽  
Justin G. Gibbs ◽  
Steven E. Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Rotational Velocity ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Tornado Warning ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractPrevious work has considered tornado occurrence with respect to radar data, both WSR-88D and mobile research radars, and a few studies have examined techniques to potentially improve tornado warning performance. To date, though, there has been little work focusing on systematic, large-sample evaluation of National Weather Service (NWS) tornado warnings with respect to radar-observable quantities and the near-storm environment. In this work, three full years (2016–2018) of NWS tornado warnings across the contiguous United States were examined, in conjunction with supporting data in the few minutes preceding warning issuance, or tornado formation in the case of missed events. The investigation herein examines WSR-88D and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) mesoanalysis data associated with these tornado warnings with comparisons made to the current Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) guidance.Combining low-level rotational velocity and the significant tornado parameter (STP), as used in prior work, shows promise as a means to estimate tornado warning performance, as well as relative changes in performance as criteria thresholds vary. For example, low-level rotational velocity peaking in excess of 30 kt (15 m s−1), in a near-storm environment which is not prohibitive for tornadoes (STP > 0), results in an increased probability of detection and reduced false alarms compared to observed NWS tornado warning metrics. Tornado warning false alarms can also be reduced through limiting warnings with weak (<30 kt), broad (>1nm) circulations in a poor (STP=0) environment, careful elimination of velocity data artifacts like sidelobe contamination, and through greater scrutiny of human-based tornado reports in otherwise questionable scenarios.

scholarly journals Long-Term Performance Metrics for National Weather Service Tornado Warnings

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 1501-1511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold E. Brooks ◽  
James Correia
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
False Alarm Ratio ◽  
Tornado Warnings ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Tornado warnings are one of the flagship products of the National Weather Service. We update the time series of various metrics of performance in order to provide baselines over the 1986–2016 period for lead time, probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and warning duration. We have used metrics (mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance, fraction of tornadoes warned in advance) that work in a consistent way across the official changes in policy for warning issuance, as well as across points in time when unofficial changes took place. The mean lead time for tornadoes warned in advance was relatively constant from 1986 to 2011, while the fraction of tornadoes warned in advance increased through about 2006, and the false alarm ratio slowly decreased. The largest changes in performance take place in 2012 when the default warning duration decreased, and there is an apparent increased emphasis on reducing false alarms. As a result, the lead time, probability of detection, and false alarm ratio all decrease in 2012. Our analysis is based, in large part, on signal detection theory, which separates the quality of the warning system from the threshold for issuing warnings. Threshold changes lead to trade-offs between false alarms and missed detections. Such changes provide further evidence for changes in what the warning system as a whole considers important, as well as highlighting the limitations of measuring performance by looking at metrics independently.

scholarly journals Extreme Climate Events, Household Decision-Making and Transitions in the Immediate Aftermath of Hurricane Sandy

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 139-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Solecki ◽  
Robin Leichenko ◽  
David Eisenhauer
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hurricane Sandy ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Scale Transformation ◽  
Household Decision ◽  
Surge Flooding ◽  
Term Response

AbstractIt is five years since Hurricane Sandy heavily damaged the New York- New Jersey Metropolitan region, and the fuller character of the long-term response can be better understood. The long-term response to Hurricane Sandy and the flooding risks it illustrated are set in myriad of individual and collective decisions taken during the time following the event. While the physical vulnerability of this region to storm surge flooding and climate change risks including sea level rise has been well-documented within the scholarly literature, Sandy’s impact placed decision-makingpost extreme events into the forefront of public and private discussions about the appropriate response. Some of the most fundamental choices were made by individual homeowners who houses were damaged and in some cases made uninhabitable following the storm. These individuals were forced to make decisions regarding where they would live and whether Sandy’s impact would result in their moving. In the disaster recovery and rebuilding context, these early household struggles about whether to leave or stay are often lost in the wider and longer narrative of recovery. To examine this early phase, this paper presents results of a research study that documented the ephemeral evidence of the initial phase of recovery in coastal communities that were heavily impacted by Hurricane Sandy’s storm surge and flooding. Hurricane Sandy and the immediate response to the storm created conditions for a potential large-scale transformation with respect to settlement of the coastal zone. In the paper, we examine and analyze survey and interview results of sixty-one residents and two dozen local stakeholders and practitioners to understand the stresses and transitions experienced by flooded households and the implications for the longer term resiliency of the communities in which they are located.

Teaching Mesoscale Meteorology in the Age of the Modernized National Weather Service: A Report on the Unidata/COMET Workshop

1995 ◽  
Vol 76 (12) ◽  
pp. 2463-2473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohan K. Ramamurthy ◽  
Charles Murphy ◽  
James Moore ◽  
Melanie Wetzel ◽  
David Knight ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Weather Service ◽  
Mesoscale Meteorology ◽  
Weather Service

scholarly journals The state of weather, water and climate services in the U.S. and strategic challenges for the next decade: the perspective from the American Meteorological Society and U.S. National Weather Service

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Farrar
Keyword(s):  
Water Security ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Keynote Presentation ◽  
Future Goals ◽  
American Meteorological Society ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Weather Service

&lt;p&gt;This keynote presentation will discuss several key applications and operational systems in the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) and how they fit in with the broader mission of providing science-based weather, water and climate services to the nation. In addition, the future evolution of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction&amp;#160;(NCEP) and NWS will be discussed as it relates to future goals and priorities related to people, science, technology, operational concepts and practices, and partnerships between government/public sector, the private sector, and academia. Also, in his role as the current President of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), Dr. Farrar will address the theme for the 2022 AMS annual meeting, &quot;Environmental Security: weather, water and climate for a more secure world&quot;, which will explore the national and human security impacts from extreme weather and climate events and intersections with health, energy, food, and water security.&lt;/p&gt;

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