Bathymetric Data Requirements for Operational Coastal Erosion Forecasting Using XBeach

There is an increasing interest in the broad-scale implementation of coastal erosion early warning systems (EWS) with the goal of enhancing community preparedness to extreme coastal storm wave events. These emerging systems typically rely on process-based models to predict the storm-induced morphological change. A key challenge with incorporating these models in EWSs is the need for up-to-date nearshore and surf zone bathymetry data, which is difficult to measure routinely, but potentially important for accurate erosion forecasting. This study evaluates the degree to which up-to-date bathymetry is required for accurate coastal erosion predictions using the morphodynamic model XBeach and, subsequently, whether a range of “representative” and/or “synthetic” bathymetries can be used for the bottom boundary, when a survey of the immediate pre-storm bathymetry is not available. Twelve storm events at two contrasting sites were modelled using six different bathymetry scenarios, including the expected “best case” bathymetry surveyed immediately pre-storm. These results indicate that alternative bathymetries can be used to obtain sub-aerial erosion predictions that are similar (and in some cases better) than those resulting from the use of an immediately pre-storm surveyed bathymetry, provided that rigorous model calibration is undertaken prior. This generalized finding is attributed to specific parametrizations in the XBeach model structure that are optimized during the calibration process to match the particular bottom boundary condition used. This study provides practical guidance for the selection of suitable nearshore bathymetry for use in operational coastal erosion EWSs.