Using Dynamic Adjusting NGHS-ANN for Predicting the Recidivism Rate of Commuted Prisoners

Commutation is a judicial policy that is implemented in most countries. The recidivism rate of commuted prisoners directly affects people’s perceptions and trust of commutation. Hence, if the recidivism rate of a commuted prisoner could be accurately predicted before the person returns to society, the number of reoffences could be reduced; thereby, enhancing trust in the process. Therefore, it is of considerable importance that the recidivism rates of commuted prisoners are accurately predicted. The dynamic adjusting novel global harmony search (DANGHS) algorithm, as proposed in 2018, is an improved algorithm that combines dynamic parameter adjustment strategies and the novel global harmony search (NGHS). The DANGHS algorithm improves the searching ability of the NGHS algorithm by using dynamic adjustment strategies for genetic mutation probability. In this paper, we combined the DANGHS algorithm and an artificial neural network (ANN) into a DANGHS-ANN forecasting system to predict the recidivism rate of commuted prisoners. To verify the prediction performance of the DANGHS-ANN algorithm, we compared the experimental results with five other forecasting systems. The results showed that the proposed DANGHS-ANN algorithm gave more accurate predictions. In addition, the use of the threshold linear posterior decreasing strategy with the DANGHS-ANN forecasting system resulted in more accurate predictions of recidivism. Finally, the metaheuristic algorithm performs better searches with the dynamic parameter adjustment strategy than without it.

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A Dynamic Adjusting Novel Global Harmony Search for Continuous Optimization Problems

Symmetry ◽

10.3390/sym10080337 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 337 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Chui-Yu Chiu ◽

Po-Chou Shih ◽

Xuechao Li

Keyword(s):

Optimization Problems ◽

Harmony Search ◽

Continuous Optimization ◽

Genetic Mutation ◽

Dynamic Adjustment ◽

Mutation Probability ◽

Adjustment Strategy ◽

Improved Harmony Search ◽

Searching Ability ◽

Continuous Optimization Problems

A novel global harmony search (NGHS) algorithm, as proposed in 2010, is an improved algorithm that combines the harmony search (HS), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and a genetic algorithm (GA). Moreover, the fixed parameter of mutation probability was used in the NGHS algorithm. However, appropriate parameters can enhance the searching ability of a metaheuristic algorithm, and their importance has been described in many studies. Inspired by the adjustment strategy of the improved harmony search (IHS) algorithm, a dynamic adjusting novel global harmony search (DANGHS) algorithm, which combines NGHS and dynamic adjustment strategies for genetic mutation probability, is introduced in this paper. Moreover, extensive computational experiments and comparisons are carried out for 14 benchmark continuous optimization problems. The results show that the proposed DANGHS algorithm has better performance in comparison with other HS algorithms in most problems. In addition, the proposed algorithm is more efficient than previous methods. Finally, different strategies are suitable for different situations. Among these strategies, the most interesting and exciting strategy is the periodic dynamic adjustment strategy. For a specific problem, the periodic dynamic adjustment strategy could have better performance in comparison with other decreasing or increasing strategies. These results inspire us to further investigate this kind of periodic dynamic adjustment strategy in future experiments.

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