scholarly journals Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control of the Hand Foot Mouth Disease Affected by Regional Residency in Thailand

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (22) ◽  
pp. 2863
Author(s):  
Napasool Wongvanich ◽  
I-Ming Tang ◽  
Marc-Antoine Dubois ◽  
Puntani Pongsumpun
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Numerical Solutions ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Urban Region ◽  
Control Parameters ◽  
Control Effort ◽  
Logarithmic Relationship

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a virulent disease most commonly found in East and Southeast Asia. Symptoms include ulcers or sores, inside or around the mouth. In this research, we formulate the dynamic model of HFMD by using the SEIQR model. We separated the infection episodes where there is a higher outbreak and a lower outbreak of the disease associated with regional residency, with the higher level of outbreak occurring in the urban region, and a lower outbreak level occurring in the rural region. We developed two different optimal control programs for the types of outbreaks. Optimal Control Policy 1 (OPC1) is limited to the use of treatment only, whereas Optimal Control Policy 2 (OPC2) includes vaccination along with the treatment. The Pontryagin’s maximum principle is used to establish the necessary and optimal conditions for the two policies. Numerical solutions are presented along with numerical sensitivity analyses of the required control efforts needed as the control parameters are changed. Results show that the time tmax required for the optimal control effort to stay at the maximum amount umax exhibits an intrinsic logarithmic relationship with respect to the control parameters.

scholarly journals Parameter-dependent transmission dynamics and optimal control of foot and mouth disease in a contaminated environment

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Mugabi ◽  
Joseph Mugisha ◽  
Betty Nannyonga ◽  
Henry Kasumba ◽  
Margaret Tusiime
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Decay Rates ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Optimality System ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Environmental Decontamination

AbstractThe problem of foot and mouth disease (FMD) is of serious concern to the livestock sector in most nations, especially in developing countries. This paper presents the formulation and analysis of a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of FMD through a contaminated environment. It is shown that the key parameters that drive the transmission of FMD in a contaminated environment are the shedding, transmission, and decay rates of the virus. Using numerical results, it is depicted that the host-to-host route is more severe than the environmental-to-host route. The model is then transformed into an optimal control problem. Using the Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the optimality system is determined. Utilizing a gradient type algorithm with projection, the optimality system is solved for three control strategies: optimal use of vaccination, environmental decontamination, and a combination of vaccination and environmental decontamination. Results show that a combination of vaccination and environmental decontamination is the most optimal strategy. These results indicate that if vaccination and environmental decontamination are used optimally during an outbreak, then FMD transmission can be controlled. Future studies focusing on the control measures for the transmission of FMD in a contaminated environment should aim at reducing the transmission and the shedding rates, while increasing the decay rate.

‘Flames and fear on the farms’: controlling foot and mouth disease in Britain, 1892–2001*

2004 ◽  
Vol 77 (198) ◽  
pp. 520-542 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abigail Woods
Keyword(s):  
Disease Control ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
First Century ◽  
British Government ◽  
Contagious Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
History Of

Abstract For over a century, the British government has pursued a policy of national freedom from foot and mouth disease (F.M.D.), a highly contagious disease of cloven-footed animals. One of the cornerstones of this policy was the slaughter of infected animals. However, on several occasions – most notably in 2001 – slaughter struggled to contain F.M.D., and provoked widespread criticism and calls for policy change. Drawing upon a range of previously unexamined sources, this article examines the history of F.M.D. in Britain, in an attempt to explain the twenty-first-century persistence of a Victorian disease control policy.

scholarly journals Effects of regional differences and demography in modelling foot-and-mouth disease in cattle at the national scale

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 20190054 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kimberly Tsao ◽  
Stefan Sellman ◽  
Lindsay M. Beck-Johnson ◽  
Deedra J. Murrieta ◽  
Clayton Hallman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Control Actions ◽  
Demographic Heterogeneity ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Demographic Attributes ◽  
And Control

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a fast-spreading viral infection that can produce large and costly outbreaks in livestock populations. Transmission occurs at multiple spatial scales, as can the actions used to control outbreaks. The US cattle industry is spatially expansive, with heterogeneous distributions of animals and infrastructure. We have developed a model that incorporates the effects of scale for both disease transmission and control actions, applied here in simulating FMD outbreaks in US cattle. We simulated infection initiating in each of the 3049 counties in the contiguous US, 100 times per county. When initial infection was located in specific regions, large outbreaks were more likely to occur, driven by infrastructure and other demographic attributes such as premises clustering and number of cattle on premises. Sensitivity analyses suggest these attributes had more impact on outbreak metrics than the ranges of estimated disease parameter values. Additionally, although shipping accounted for a small percentage of overall transmission, areas receiving the most animal shipments tended to have other attributes that increase the probability of large outbreaks. The importance of including spatial and demographic heterogeneity in modelling outbreak trajectories and control actions is illustrated by specific regions consistently producing larger outbreaks than others.

scholarly journals A dynamic model for the outbreaks of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Taiwan

2015 ◽  
Vol 144 (7) ◽  
pp. 1500-1511 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.-C. LAI ◽  
D.-S. JIANG ◽  
H.-M. WU ◽  
H.-H. CHEN
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Enterovirus 71 ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Basic Reproductive Number ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Infection Control Policy ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Large Outbreak

SUMMARYThe first large outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) with severe complications primarily caused by enterovirus 71 was reported in Taiwan in 1998. Surveillance of HFMD to evaluate the spread of HFMD with and without infection control policy is needed. We developed a new dynamic epidemic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to fit the surveillance data on containing valuable information on the severity of HFMD in order to accurately estimate the basic reproductive number (R0) of HFMD. After fitting the empirical data, in conjunction with other relevant parameters extracted from the literature, the estimated transmission coefficients were close to 5 × 10−7 (per day) and the proportion of severe HFMD cases ranged between 0 and 0·0036 (per day). Taking into account the distribution of all parameters considered in our dynamic epidemic model, the R0 computed was 1·37 (95% confidence interval 0·24–5·84), suggesting a higher likelihood of the spread of HFMD if no infection control policy is provided. The isolation strategy against the spread of HFMD not only delayed the epidemic peak with the delayed time ranging from 4 weeks for only 20% isolation to 47 weeks for 100% isolation but also reduced total number of HFMD cases with the percentage of reduction ranging from 1·3% for only 20% isolation to 13·3% for 100% isolation. The proposed model can also be flexible for evaluating the effectiveness of two other possible policies for containing HFMD, quarantine and vaccination (if the vaccine can be developed).

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