scholarly journals Forecasting Low Stream Flow Rate Using Monte—Carlo Simulation of Perigiali Stream, Kavala City, NE Greece

Proceedings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Papalaskaris ◽  
Theologos Panagiotidis
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Flow Rate ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Storm Flow ◽  
Management Plans

A small number of scientific research studies with reference to extremely low flow conditions, have been conducted in Greece, so far. Predicting future low stream flow rate values is an essential and of paramount importance task when compiling watershed and drought management plans, designing water reservoirs and general hydraulic works capacity, calculating hydrological and drought low flow values, separating groundwater base flow and storm flow of storm hydrographs etc. The Monte-Carlo simulation method generates multiple attempts to define the anticipated value of a random (hydrological in this specific case) variable. The present study compiles, correspondingly, artificial low stream flow time series of both the same part of the year (2016) as well as a part of the calendar year (2017), based on the stream flow data observed during the same two different interval periods of the years 2016 and 2017, using a 3-inches U.S.G.S. modified portable Parshall flume, a 3-inches conventional portable Parshall flume, a 3-inches portable Montana (short Parshall) flume and a 90° V-notched triangular shaped sharp crested portable weir plate. The recorded data were plotted against the fitted one and the results were demonstrated through interactive tables providing us the ability to effectively evaluate the simulation procedure performance. Finally, we plot the observed against the calculated low stream flow rate data, compiling a log-log scale chart which provides a better visualization of the discrepancy ratio statistical performance metric and calculate statistics featuring the comparison between the recorded and the forecasted low stream flow rate data.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Network for Daily Low Stream Flow Rate Prediction of Perigiali Stream, Kavala City, NE Greece

Proceedings ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 578
Author(s):  
Thomas Papalaskaris ◽  
Theologos Panagiotidis
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Flow Rate ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Urban Stream ◽  
Neural Network Modeling ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Artificial Neural

Only a few scientific research studies with reference to extremely low stream flow conditions, have been conducted in Greece, so far. Forecasting future low stream flow rate values is a crucial and desicive task when conducting drought and watershed management plans, designing water reservoirs and general hydraulic works capacity, calculating hydrological and drought low flow indices, separating groundwater base flow and storm flow of storm hydrographs etc. Artificial Neural Network modeling simulation method generates artificial time series of simulated values of a random (hydrological in this specific case) variable. The present study produces artificial low stream flow time series of both a part of the past year (2016) as well as the present year (2017) considering the stream flow data observed during two different respecting interval period of the years 2016 and 2017. We compiled an Artificial Neural Network to simulate low stream flow rate data, acquired at a certain location of the partly regulated semi-urban stream which runs through the eastern exit of Kavala city, NE Greece, using a 3-inches U.S.G.S. modified portable Parshall flume, a 3-inches conventional portable Parshall flume, a 3-inches portable Montana (short Parshall) flume and a 90° V-notched triangular shaped sharp crested portable weir plate. The observed data were plotted against the predicted one and the results were demonstrated through interactive tables providing us the ability to effectively evaluate the ANN model simulation procedure performance. Finally, we plot the recorded against the simulated low stream flow rate data, compiling a log-log scale chart which provides a better visualization of the discrepancy ratio statistical performance metrics and calculate the derived model statistics featuring the comparison between the recorded and the forecasted low stream flow rate data.

scholarly journals Artificial Neural Network for Daily Low Stream Flow Rate Prediction of Iokastis Stream, Kavala City, NE Greece, NE Mediterranean Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Thomas Papalaskaris
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Flow Rate ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Urban Stream ◽  
Neural Network Modeling ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Artificial Neural

Only a few scientific research studies referencing extremely low flow conditions have been conducted in Greece so far. Forecasting future low stream flow rate values is a crucial and decisive task when conducting drought and watershed management plans by designing construction plans dealing with water reservoirs and general hydraulic works capacity, by calculating hydrological and drought low flow indices, and by separating groundwater base flow and storm flow of storm hydrographs, etc. The Artificial Neural Network modeling simulation method generates artificial time series of simulated values of a random (hydrological in this specific case) variable. The present study produces artificial low stream flow time series of part of 2015. We compiled an Artificial Neural Network to simulate low stream flow rate data, acquired at a certain location of the entirely regulated, urban stream, which crosses the roads junction formed by Iokastis road and an Chrisostomou Smirnis road, Agios Loukas residential area, Kavala city, Eastern Macedonia & Thrace Prefecture, NE Greece, during part of July, August, and part of September 2015, until 12 September 2015, using a 3-inches conventional portable Parshall flume. The observed data were plotted against the predicted one and the results were demonstrated through interactive tables by providing us the ability to effectively evaluate the ANN model simulation procedure performance. Finally, we plotted the recorded against the simulated low stream flow rate data by compiling a log-log scale chart, which provides a better visualization of the discrepancy ratio statistical performance metrics and calculated further statistic values featuring the comparison between the recorded and the forecasted low stream flow rate data.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Cost Functions in Climate-Dependent Controllable Loads in Commercial Environments

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (10) ◽  
pp. 2885
Author(s):  
Daniel Losada ◽  
Ameena Al-Sumaiti ◽  
Sergio Rivera
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Electricity Sector ◽  
Cost Functions ◽  
Density Estimator ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Method ◽  
Commercial Building ◽  
Complementary Method ◽  
The Cost

This article presents the development, simulation and validation of the uncertainty cost functions for a commercial building with climate-dependent controllable loads, located in Florida, USA. For its development, statistical data on the energy consumption of the building in 2016 were used, along with the deployment of kernel density estimator to characterize its probabilistic behavior. For validation of the uncertainty cost functions, the Monte-Carlo simulation method was used to make comparisons between the analytical results and the results obtained by the method. The cost functions found differential errors of less than 1%, compared to the Monte-Carlo simulation method. With this, there is an analytical approach to the uncertainty costs of the building that can be used in the development of optimal energy dispatches, as well as a complementary method for the probabilistic characterization of the stochastic behavior of agents in the electricity sector.

نماذج المحاكاة- محاكاة مونتي كارلو- كأسلوب كمي من أساليب النمذجة واتخاذ القرارات - مقاربة نظرية وتطبيقية

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
محمد الأمين ◽  
بن حامد عبد الغني ◽  
مراس محمد
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Practical Importance ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Period Analysis ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Our research aims to try to present the modeling mechanisms in the field of simulation and quantitative methods. The research is a presentation of the role of quantitative methods in making investment project evaluation decisions, more than that and is the use of the Monte Carlo simulation model in evaluation and multi-period analysis of investment projects under conditions Risk and uncertainty. And highlighting the theoretical, scientific and practical importance of the Monte Carlo simulation method in particular, and the importance of using quantitative methods in helping to make decisions in general

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