A New Approach to Identify Social Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Yangtze River Delta

The cities of the Yangtze River Delta are densely populated with large amounts of wealth, for which reason they are faced with greater disaster risks brought by climate change. As a major research tool on climate change policies, vulnerability assessment provides reference for adaptive management. Based on literature review and case study, the paper first constructs the overall vulnerability assessment model for cities of the Yangtze River Delta by utilizing the indices of sensitivity and adaptability. Then, it assesses 16 typical cities of this region through factor analysis, an objective evaluation method, analyzes the driving factors of climate vulnerability in each city and conducts group comparisons according to their sensitivity and adaptability. Finally, it points out the importance of cities’ adaptability to climate change under multiple pressures of climate change, population growth and urbanization in the future, and gives some suggestions, such as strengthening risk assessment on climate change, including climate-proofing measures in urban development planning, protecting climatically vulnerable groups in cities, enhancing comprehensive capacities for disaster management in cities and encouraging the R&D and innovation on adaptation technologies.

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Climate Change Increased The Compound Extreme Precipitation-Flood Events In A Representative Watershed of The Yangtze River Delta, China

10.21203/rs.3.rs-1101769/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yuxiu He ◽

Qiang Wang ◽

Youpeng Xu ◽

Ziyi Li ◽

Jia Yuan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Frequency Analysis ◽

Return Period ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Yangtze River Delta ◽

River Delta ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

The Yangtze River Delta

Abstract A compound perspective on hydrological extreme events is of paramount significance as it may lead to damages with larger losses. In this study, an integrated framework, based on downscaled climate variables and hydrological model, i.e. the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, was applied to generate extreme precipitation (Rx1day) and extreme streamflow (Sx1day) series under historical and future climate conditions. Then the potential impacts of climate change for univariate and bivariate joint frequency of extreme precipitation and flood in Xitiaoxi River Basin (XRB), a representative watershed of the Yangtze River Delta, is detected. The compound risk of extreme precipitation and flood under different levels of joint return period for historical and projected periods are estimated by copula‐based two-dimensional approaches. Major findings can be summarized: (1) The Rx1day and Sx1day under future scenarios increased by -0.4 ~ 11.7% and 0.7 ~ 20.4%, respectively, compared to historical period based on univariate frequency analysis, indicating the increasing magnitude of the flood in the future. (2) Climate change with different emission scenarios all have a driving effect on the rising coactivity of extreme precipitation and flood under compound flooding frequency analysis. In addition, the enhancement of climate change to extreme events is more apparent for extremes with higher return period and under the periods of 2080s. (3) Moreover, the flood frequency designs are deduced by bivariate joint distribution are safer than that by univariate distribution. This study may provide actionable insights to formulate the planning scheme of flood control and disaster reduction under the changing environment.

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Examining Social Vulnerability and Inequality: A Joint Analysis through a Connectivity Lens in the Urban Agglomerations of China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11041042 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (4) ◽

pp. 1042 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Yi Ge ◽

Guangfei Yang ◽

Yi Chen ◽

Wen Dou

Keyword(s):

Social Vulnerability ◽

Yangtze River ◽

Vulnerability Index ◽

Yangtze River Delta ◽

River Delta ◽

Joint Analysis ◽

The Yangtze River ◽

Social Vulnerability Index ◽

Urban Agglomerations ◽

The Yangtze River Delta

China is vulnerable to climate change. Developing the ability to assess social vulnerability and inequality amid climate change will be imperative to ensure that adjustment policies can be developed for various groups and build resilient livelihoods in China. This paper examines social vulnerability and inequality through a joint analysis of urban agglomerations. Based on a conceptual framework of social vulnerability from a network perspective, the social vulnerability index of individual cities is quantified with a projection pursuit cluster model, the social vulnerability index of cities in urban networks is calculated with the Baidu Index, and an inequality analysis is measured by the Theil index. We pilot this study in three urban agglomerations: the Jing-Jin-Ji region, the Yangtze River Delta region, and the Pearl River Delta. Our results show the following: (1) The indicator of “GDP” with the weight value reaching 0.42 has the most influence on social vulnerability. Three indicators, which are fully described herein—“Children”, “Illiterate”, and “Higher education graduated”—contribute much to social vulnerability index with values between 0.3 and 0.4. These three indicators should receive more attention in integrated risk management. (2) In the Jing-Jin-Ji region, the Theil indexes of two indicators, “Ethnic minorities” and “Green”, exceed 0.65 and have the most influence on inequality. In the Yangtze River Delta, three indicators of “Poor”, “GDP”, and “Green” contribute much to inequality. In the Pearl River Delta, the inequalities of “Green”, “Houses with no tap water” and “Higher education graduated” are high. These indicators give advance warning of potential problems, so adjustment is recommended for reducing inequality. (3) Though the connectivity structure of the Yangtze River Delta is more complicated and stronger than that of the other two agglomerations, its inequality of connectivity is higher than the others. (4) Connectivity is key for reducing social vulnerability, on the one hand, but can result in more inequality of social vulnerability, on the other hand. Therefore, it’s crucial for government to attach more significance and provide more support to cities with a higher social vulnerability index.

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