Evolution Characteristics and Relationship of Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts from 1961 to 2018 in Hanjiang River Basin, China

In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the acceleration of the water cycle will increase the risk of basin drought. In this study, to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hydrological and meteorological droughts over the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were selected and applied for the period 1961–2018. In addition, the cross-wavelet method was used to discuss the relationship between hydrological drought and meteorological droughts. The results and analysis indicated that: (1) the meteorological drought in the HRB showed a complex cyclical change trend of flood-drought-flood from 1961 to 2018. The basin drought began to intensify from 1990s and eased in 2010s. The characteristics of drought evolution in various regions are different based on scale. (2) During the past 58 years, the hydrological drought in the HRB has shown a significant trend of intensification, particularly in autumn season. Also, the hydrological droughts had occurred frequently since the 1990s, and there were also regional differences in the evolution characteristics of drought in various regions. (3) Reservoir operation reduces the frequency of extreme hydrological drought events. The effect of reducing the duration and intensity of hydrological drought events by releasing water from the reservoir is most obvious at Huangjiagang Station, which is the nearest to Danjiangkou Reservoir. (4) The hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the HRB have the strongest correlation on the yearly scale. After 1990, severe human activities and climate change are not only reduced the correlation between hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, but also reduced the lag time between them. Among them, the hydrological drought in the upper reaches of the basin lags behind the meteorological drought by 1 month, and the hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has changed from 2 months before 1990 to 1 month lagging after 1990.

Evolution characteristics and relationship of meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1961 to 2018 in Hanjiang River Basin, China

In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the acceleration of the water cycle will increase the risk of basin drought. In this study, to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hydrological and meteorological droughts over the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were selected and applied for the period 1961–2018. In addition, the cross-wavelet method was used to discuss the relationship between hydrological drought and meteorological droughts. The results and analysis indicated that: (1) the meteorological drought in the HRB showed a complex cyclical change trend of flood-drought-flood from 1961 to 2018. The basin drought began to intensify from 1990s and eased in 2010s. The characteristics of drought evolution in various regions are different based on scale. (2) During the past 58 years, the hydrological drought in the HRB has shown a significant trend of intensification, particularly in autumn season. Also, the hydrological droughts had occurred frequently since the 1990s, and there were also regional differences in the evolution characteristics of drought in various regions. (3) Reservoir operation reduces the frequency of extreme hydrological drought events. The effect of reducing the duration and intensity of hydrological drought events by releasing water from the reservoir is most obvious at Huangjiagang Station, which is the nearest to Danjiangkou Reservoir. (4) The hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the HRB have the strongest correlation on the yearly scale. After 1990, severe human activities and climate change are not only reduced the correlation between hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, but also reduced the lag time between them. Among them, the hydrological drought in the upper reaches of the basin lags behind the meteorological drought by 1 month, and the hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has changed from 2 months before 1990 to 1 month lagging after 1990.

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Chlorophyll-a Concentration From MODIS Data Inversion in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Hanjiang River, China

The global construction of water projects has led to a clear trend of river and lake reservoir formation, spurring increasingly serious ecological environmental deterioration, especially that caused by the frequent occurrence of water blooms. Because of monitoring technology limitations, monitoring the algae content index in water has lagged behind the conventional water quality index, which makes sample monitoring too sparse in many rivers and the monitoring data incoherent, so it cannot truly reflect the evolution of water eutrophication. With moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) remote sensing data monitoring, continuous chlorophyll-a observation data can be collected effectively. This method has important guiding significance for the early warning and control of water blooms. This study considers the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River in China, based on the current remote sensing communication technology, MODIS remote sensing data, and statistical methods and measured chlorophyll-a concentration correlation analysis. Through the use of the trial and error method to establish the band ratio model and BP neural network model, two types of model errors were compared to determine the optimal algorithm settings for the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River chlorophyll-a inversion. Subsequently, the algorithm model for 2000 to 2011 in the middle and lower reaches of the Hanjiang River chlorophyll-a concentration inversion and the results of the inversion analysis of spatiotemporal evolution characteristics we used to determine the influence of various environmental factors on the chlorophyll-a concentration change.

Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble for Precipitation Downscaling Results and Observational Data: The Case of Hanjiang River Basin

Evaluating global climate model (GCM) outputs is essential for accurately simulating future hydrological cycles using hydrological models. The GCM multi-model ensemble (MME) precipitation simulations of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) were spatially and temporally downscaled according to a multi-site statistical downscaling method for the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB), China. Downscaled precipitation accuracy was assessed using data collected from 14 meteorological stations in the HRB. The spatial performances, temporal performances, and seasonal variations of the downscaled CMIP5-MME and CMIP6-MME were evaluated and compared with observed data from 1970–2005. We found that the multi-site downscaling method accurately downscaled the CMIP5-MME and CMIP6-MME precipitation simulations. The downscaled precipitation of CMIP5-MME and CMIP6-MME captured the spatial pattern, temporal pattern, and seasonal variations; however, precipitation was slightly overestimated in the western and central HRB and precipitation was underestimated in the eastern HRB. The precipitation simulation ability of the downscaled CMIP6-MME relative to the downscaled CMIP5-MME improved because of reduced biases. The downscaled CMIP6-MME better simulated precipitation for most stations compared to the downscaled CMIP5-MME in all seasons except for summer. Both the downscaled CMIP5-MME and CMIP6-MME exhibit poor performance in simulating rainy days in the HRB.

Evaluation of best management practices for non-point source pollution based on the SWAT model in the Hanjiang River Basin, China

Taking the Hanjiang River basin with Ankang hydrological station as the control section as the study area, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of non-point source (NPS) pollution and determine the critical source areas (CSA). Then we set up 11 best management practices (BMPs) in the CSA and evaluate their environmental and comprehensive benefits. The results show that TN and TP loads in flood season are significantly higher than that in non-flood season. The distribution of loss intensity of TN and TP load has a strong correlation with runoff and sediment erosion intensity, respectively. Among the 8 individual BMPs, the reduction rates of stubble coverage, grassed waterway and returning farmland to forest land are relatively high, and the comprehensive attribute value Z of stubble coverage is the highest. Among the 3 combined BMPs, the reduction rate of ‘stubble coverage + grassed waterway + returning farmland to forest land (>25°)’ is the highest and the Z value is the largest. Overall, the BMPs such as stubble coverage, grassed waterway, and returning farmland to forest land can be adopted alternately to control NPS pollution in the Hanjiang river basin.

Runoff Forecast and Analysis of the Probability of Dry and Wet Transition in the Hanjiang River Basin

Runoff prediction has an important guiding role in the planning and management of regional water resources, flood prevention and drought resistance, and can effectively predict the risk of changes in regional water resources. This study used 12 runoff prediction methods to predict the runoff of four hydrological stations in the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB). Through the MCMC method, the HRB runoff probability conversion model from low to high (high to low) is constructed. The study found that the runoff of the HRB had a decreasing trend. In the mid-1980s, the runoff had a significant decreasing trend. The smoother the runoff changes, the easier it is to make accurate prediction. On the whole, the QS-MFM, MFM, MA-MFM, CES and DNN methods have strong generalization ability and can more accurately predict the runoff of the HRB. The Logistic model can accurately simulate the change of runoff status in the HRB. Among them, the HLT station has the fastest conversion rate of drought and flood, and the flow that generates floods is 6 times that of drought. The smaller the basin area, the larger the gap between drought and flood discharge. Overall, this research provides important technical support for the prediction of change in water resources and the transition probability from drought to flood in the HRB.