scholarly journals Internal variability in a 1000-yr control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G — I. Near-surface temperature, precipitation and mean sea level pressure

2005 ◽  
Vol 57 (4) ◽  
pp. 605-621 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seung-Ki Min ◽  
Stephanie Legutke ◽  
Andreas Hense ◽  
Won-Tae Kwon
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Coupled Climate Model ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Control Simulation

scholarly journals Forecasting with Reference to a Specific Climatology

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (11) ◽  
pp. 3795-3802
Author(s):  
Emily Wallace ◽  
Alberto Arribas
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Seasonal Forecasting ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Prediction Systems

Abstract Seasonal forecasts are most commonly issued as anomalies with respect to some multiyear reference period. However, different seasonal forecasting centers use different reference periods. This paper shows that for near-surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure, over most regions of the world there is evidence that these differences between reference periods should not be ignored, especially when forecasters combine outputs from several prediction systems. Three methods are presented by which reference periods could be adjusted, and it is shown that the differences between the proposed methods are smaller than the errors that result from not correcting for different reference periods.

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamish Steptoe ◽  
Nicholas Henry Savage ◽  
Saeed Sadri ◽  
Kate Salmon ◽  
Zubair Maalick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Level Pressure ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Gust Speed

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.

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