Performance of the Global Forecast System's medium-range precipitation forecasts in the Niger river basin using multiple satellite-based products

Accurate weather forecast information has the potential to improve water resources management, energy, and agriculture. This study evaluates the accuracy of medium-range (1–15 d) precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) over watersheds of eight major dams (Selingue Dam, Markala Dam, Goronyo Dam, Bakolori Dam, Kainji Dam, Jebba Dam, Dadin Kowa Dam, and Lagdo Dam) in the Niger river basin using NASA's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) Final Run merged satellite gauge rainfall observations. The results indicate that the accuracy of GFS forecast varies depending on climatic regime, lead time, accumulation timescale, and spatial scale. The GFS forecast has large overestimation bias in the Guinea region of the basin (wet climatic regime), moderate overestimation bias in the Savannah region (moderately wet climatic regime), but has no bias in the Sahel region (dry climate). Averaging the forecasts at coarser spatial scales leads to increased forecast accuracy. For daily rainfall forecasts, the performance of GFS is very low for almost all watersheds, except for Markala and Kainji dams, both of which have much larger watershed areas compared to the other watersheds. Averaging the forecasts at longer timescales also leads to increased forecast accuracy. The GFS forecasts, at 15 d accumulation timescale, have better performance but tend to overestimate high rain rates. Additionally, the performance assessment of two other satellite products was conducted using IMERG Final estimates as reference. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) merged satellite gauge product has similar rainfall characteristics to IMERG Final, indicating the robustness of IMERG Final. The IMERG Early Run satellite-only rainfall product is biased in the dry Sahel region; however, in the wet Guinea and Savannah regions, IMERG Early Run outperforms GFS in terms of bias.

Short range SW monsoon rainfall forecasting over India using neural networks

Feedforward Neural Networks are used for daily precipitation forecast using several test stations all over India. The six year European Centre of Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) data is used with the training set consisting of the four year data from 1985-1988 and validation set consisting of the data from 1989-1990. Neural networks are used to develop a concurrent relationship between precipitation and other atmospheric variables. No attempt is made to select optimal variables for this study and the inputs are chosen to be same as the ones obtained earlier at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) in developing a linear regression model. Neural networks are found to yield results which are atleast as good as linear regression and in several cases yield 10 - 20 % improvement. This is encouraging since the variable selection has so far been optimized for linear regression.

The representation of winds in the lower troposphere in ECMWF forecasts and reanalyses during the EUREC4A field campaign

The characterization of systematic forecast errors in lower-tropospheric winds over the ocean is a primary need for reforming models. Winds are among the drivers of convection, thus an accurate representation of winds is essential for better convective parameterizations. We focus on the temporal variability and vertical distribution of lower-tropospheric wind biases in operational medium-range weather forecasts and ERA5 reanalyses produced with the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Thanks to several sensitivity experiments and an unprecedented wealth of measurements from the 2020 EUREC4A field campaign, we show that the wind bias varies greatly from day to day, resulting in RSME's up to 2.5 m s−1, with a mean wind speed bias up to −1 m s−1 near and above the trade-inversion in the forecasts and up to −0.5 m s−1 in reanalyses. The modeled zonal and meridional wind exhibit a too strong diurnal cycle, leading to a weak wind speed bias everywhere up to 5 km during daytime, turning into a too strong wind speed bias below 2 km at nighttime. The biases are fairly insensitive to the assimilation of sondes and likely related to remote convection and large scale pressure gradients. Convective momentum transport acts to distribute biases throughout the lowest 1.5 km, whereas at higher levels, other unresolved or dynamical tendencies play a role in setting the bias. Below 1 km, modelled friction due to unresolved physical processes appears too strong, but is (partially) compensated by dynamical tendencies, making this a challenging coupled problem.

LOW FREQUENCY OSCILLATIONS IN TROPOSPHERIC WINDS DURING CONTRASTING SUMMER MONSOON OVER INDIA

TIle'low frequency Iluctu atio ns in the troposphe ric wind field over India has been studied by spec tnuu~ na l l"i, tech nique. duri ng con trasting mon soons. namely, d rought and good monsoons ba sed on rainfall3cti\il)·. Si~ lliflc ant spectral peaks d urin g these years ha ve bee n iden tified.Zon al wind shea r in the lower tropospher ehan' also bern examin ed and the periodici ty in th e near 4()..day mode have bee n documented . Th e interannual, 'n.riill1i1ily of the mode and its potential as medium range predicti on tool has been examined in therrnpn perspect ive.

Designing a Reliable UAV Architecture Operating in a Real Environment

The article presents a method of designing a selected unmanned aerial platform flight scenario based on the principles of designing a reliable (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) UAV architecture operating in an environment in which other platforms operate. The models and results presented relate to the medium-range aerial platform, subject to certification under the principles set out in aviation regulations. These platforms are subject to the certification process requirements, but their restrictions are not as restrictive as in the case of manned platforms. Issues related to modeling scenarios implemented by the platform in flight are discussed. The article describes the importance of Functional Hazard Analysis (FHA) and Fault Trees Analysis (FTA) of elements included in the hardware and software architecture of the system. The models in Unified Modeling Language (UML) used by the authors in the project are described, supporting the design of a reliable architecture of flying platforms. Examples of the transformations from user requirements modeled in the form of Use Cases to platform operation models based on State Machines and then to the final UAV operation algorithms are shown. Principles of designing system test plans and designing individual test cases to verify the system’s operation in emergencies in flight are discussed. Methods of integrating flight simulators with elements of the air platform in the form of Software-in-the-Loop (SIL) models based on selected algorithms for avoiding dangerous situations have been described. The presented results are based on a practical example of an algorithm for detecting an air collision situation of two platforms.