Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets: The Case of Turkey

This study investigates the impact of terrorism on the Turkish financial market using daily data from Jan 4, 1988 to May 24, 2016. In order to measure the impacts of terrorist attacks in Turkey we test for causality from terrorism index to returns and volatilities of 3 aggregate and 16 sector level stock indices using a recently developed nonparametric causality-in-test test of Balcilar et al. (2016). The results obtained indicate that there is no causality from terrorist activities to stock market returns (1st moment). However, we find significant causality at various quantiles from terrorist activates to volatility (2nd moment) of tourism, food and basic materials sectors.

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Euro-Mediterranean Financial Markets Reaction to Political Elections

International Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences ◽

10.18488/journal.136.2021.62.70.85 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 70-85

Author(s):

Jihene Ghouli Oueslati ◽

Nadia Basty ◽

Lamis Klouj

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Financial Markets ◽

Abnormal Returns ◽

Anomalous Behavior ◽

Market Returns ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

Mediterranean Countries ◽

Market Disruption ◽

Stock Market Performance ◽

The Impact

This paper studies a sample of Euro-Mediterranean countries to test the link of political-financial interdependencies. We focus specifically on the impact of the occurrence of national elections on the reaction of financial markets. We used the GARCH (1,1) model and the concept of the volatility multiplier to test our hypotheses. The results established that political elections have a significant impact on stock market performance and volatility for Euro-Mediterranean countries. We detected anomalous behavior in stock market returns. Stock market returns on election day and in the days following the election are inversely higher as uncertainty about the election outcome decreases. Investor uncertainty, combined with the consequences of the multiparty system in Euro-Mediterranean countries, leads to negative abnormal returns around elections. In terms of volatility, we found that the greater degree of uncertainty about the situation and the market disruption affected by the media and social networks increase volatility before election day.

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2016 U.S. Presidential Election and Stock Markets in China

International Journal of Economics and Finance ◽

10.5539/ijef.v9n7p32 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. 32

Author(s):

SingRu Hoe ◽

Srinivas Nippani

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Presidential Election ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Market Returns ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

Stock Indices ◽

The Media ◽

The Government ◽

The Impact

This study seeks to address the question if the 2016 U.S. Presidential election and Mr. Donald Trump’s path to U.S. presidency affected the stock market returns in China. We do not find conclusive results from three leading stock indices of China, SHCOMP, SZCOMP, and SHSZ300. There is an immediate impact shown in SHSZ300, but not in SHCOMP and SZCOMP. We ascribe this to the impact of less sophisticated investors who dominate the stock market in China and also to that country’s censorship of the media wherein the government could effectively either block or downplay the unfavorable information.

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The Impact Of Earnings Guidance Announcement, Bonus and Dividend Announcement On Stock Market Returns� (Taking IT Companies Of India)

i-manager’s Journal on Management ◽

10.26634/jmgt.6.3.2157 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 6 (3) ◽

pp. 57-73

Author(s):

Suresh Chandra Bihari ◽

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Earnings Guidance ◽

Market Returns ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

The Impact

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Stock Market Volatility and Terrorism: New Evidence from the Markov Switching Model

Peace Economics Peace Science and Public Policy ◽

10.1515/peps-2020-0005 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 0 (0) ◽

Author(s):

Faheem Aslam ◽

Hyoung-Goo Kang ◽

Khurrum Shahzad Mughal ◽

Tahir Mumtaz Awan ◽

Yasir Tariq Mohmand

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Significant Risk ◽

Market Volatility ◽

Terrorist Attacks ◽

Stock Market Volatility ◽

Markov Switching Model ◽

Physical Damage ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

Switching Model ◽

The Impact

AbstractTerrorism in Pakistan poses a significant risk towards the lives of people by violent destruction and physical damage. In addition to human loss, such catastrophic activities also affect the financial markets. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of terrorism on the volatility of the Pakistan stock market. The financial impact of 339 terrorist attacks for a period of 18 years (2000–2018) is estimated w.r.t. target type, days of the week, and surprise factor. Three important macroeconomic variables namely exchange rate, gold, and oil were also considered. The findings of the EGARCH (1, 1) model revealed that the terrorist attacks targeting the security forces and commercial facilities significantly increased the stock market volatility. The significant impact of terrorist attacks on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday confirms the overreaction of investors to terrorist news. Furthermore, the results confirmed the negative linkage between the surprise factor and stock market returns. The findings of this study have significant implications for investors and policymakers.

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A quantile regression approach to evaluate the relative impact of global and local factors on the MENA stock markets

International Journal of Emerging Markets ◽

10.1108/ijoem-03-2020-0251 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Slah Bahloul ◽

Nawel Ben Amor

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Quantile Regression ◽

Stock Returns ◽

Stock Markets ◽

Financial Integration ◽

Ordinary Least Squares ◽

Market Returns ◽

Stock Market Returns ◽

Content Type ◽

The Impact

PurposeThis paper investigates the relative importance of local macroeconomic and global factors in the explanation of twelve MENA (Middle East and North Africa) stock market returns across the different quantiles in order to determine their degree of international financial integration.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use both ordinary least squares and quantile regressions from January 2007 to January 2018. Quantile regression permits to know how the effects of explanatory variables vary across the different states of the market.FindingsThe results of this paper indicate that the impact of local macroeconomic and global factors differs across the quantiles and markets. Generally, there are wide ranges in degree of international integration and most of MENA stock markets appear to be weakly integrated. This reveals that the portfolio diversification within the stock markets in this region is still beneficial.Originality/valueThis paper is original for two reasons. First, it emphasizes, over a fairly long period, the impact of a large number of macroeconomic and global variables on the MENA stock market returns. Second, it examines if the relative effects of these factors on MENA stock returns vary or not across the market states and MENA countries.

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