Gold's Price and Advanced Stock Markets

2020 ◽  
pp. 143-156
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Stoupos ◽  
Apostolos Kiohos
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Intraday Data ◽  
Global Investors

Traditionally, the gold has been approved as a safe-haven investment after the collapse of Breton Woods. The global investors especially prefer to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing gold or its derivatives during financial crises. This research explores realized dynamic linkages between gold and the advanced stock market indices, after the end of the 2008 economic recession. This chapter used the fractionally co-integrated ECM by utilizing intraday data from 2013 and thereafter. The empirical outcomes support that there is a negative-realized dynamics between the advanced stock markets and the gold's price in the short and in the long run. Specifically, the short-term dynamics of gold's price seems to be higher on the French and Japanese stock market indices. Lastly, the long-term dynamics of gold's price seems to be higher on the Dow Jones and the FTSE100.

scholarly journals Long and Short-Term Dynamic Relationship between Macedonian and Croatian Stock Markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 11-20
Author(s):  
Julijana Angelovska
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Directional Pattern ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Common Trend ◽  
Significant Relationships ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Economic Ties

Abstract The aim of this study is the empirical investigation of the long-run relations and the short-term dynamics between two Balkan stock markets: Macedonian and Croatian. The presence of long run common trend between the Macedonian and Croatian stock market indices is identified by applying Johansen’s cointegration maximum eigenvalue and trace tests, while potential causal relations are examined by employing Granger’s causality tests. Data sample spans from January 3rd, 2005 to March 31st, 2017. The stock market indices were found to be co-integrated with significant relationships. A bi-directional pattern of causality is documented between the Macedonian and Croatian returns. This pattern is remarkably stable and suggests significant economic ties between the investors in Macedonian and Croatian stock markets. The findings are important for the investors meaning that they cannot gain diversification benefits of investing in the Croatian or Macedonian stock market.

Comovement Dynamics between Central and Eastern European and Developed European Stock Markets during European Integration and Amid Financial Crises – A Wavelet Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 22-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silvo Dajcman ◽  
Mejra Festic ◽  
Alenka Kavkler
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
European Stock Markets

Stock market comovements between developed (represented in the article by markets of Austria, France, Germany, and the UK) and developing stock markets (represented here by three Central and Eastern European (CEE) markets of Slovenia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary) are of great importance for the financial decisions of international investors. From the point of view of portfolio diversification, short-term investors are more interested in the comovements of stock returns at higher frequencies (short-term movements), while long-term investors focus on lower frequencies comovements. As such, one has to resort to a time-frequency domain analysis to obtain insight about comovements at the particular time-frequency (scale) level. The empirical literature on the CEE and developed stock markets interdependence predominantly apply simple (Pearsons) correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, cointegration analysis, and GARCH modeling. None of the existent empirical studies examine time-scale comovements between CEE and developed stock market returns. By applying a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform correlation estimator and a running correlation technique, we investigated the dynamics of stock market return comovements between individual Central and Eastern European countries and developed European stock markets in the period from 1997-2010. By analyzing the time-varying dynamics of stock market comovements on a scale-by-scale basis, we also examined how major events (financial crises in the investigated time period and entrance to the European Union) affected the comovement of CEE stock markets with developed European stock markets. The results of the unconditional correlation analysis show that the developed European stock markets of France, the UK, Germany and Austria were more interdependent in the observed period than the CEEs stock markets. The later group of countries exhibited a lower degree of comovement between themselves as well as with the developed European stock markets during all the observed time period. The Slovenian stock market was the least correlated with other stock markets. By using the rolling wavelet correlation technique, we wanted to answer the question as to how the correlation between CEE and developed stock markets changed over the observed period. In particular, we wanted to examine whether major economic (financial) and political events in the world and European economies (the Russian financial crisis, the dot-com financial crisis, the attack on the WTC, the CEE countries joining the European union, and the recent global financial crisis) have influenced the dynamics of CEE stock market comovements with developed European stock markets. The results show that stock market return comovements between CEE and developed European stock markets varied over time scales and time. At all scales and during the entire observed time period the Hungarian and Czech stock markets were more interconnected to developed European stock markets than the Slovenian stock market was. The highest comovement between the investigated CEE and developed European stock market returns was normally observed at the highest scales (scale 5, corresponding to stock market return dynamics over 32-64 days, and scale 6, corresponding to stock market return dynamics over 32-64 and 64-128 days). At all scales the Hungarian and Czech stock markets were more connected to developed European stock markets than the Slovenian stock market. We found that European integration lead to increased comovement between CEE and developed stock markets, while the financial crises in the observed period led only to short-term increases in stock market return comovements.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.23.1.1221

scholarly journals AN ANALYSIS OF STOCK MARKET INTEGRATION IN THE ASIAN DEVELOPED AND EMERGING MARKETS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1175-1190
Author(s):  
Sadiq Rehman ◽  
Asif Ali Abro ◽  
Ahmed Raza Ul Mustafa ◽  
Najeeb Ullah ◽  
Sanam Wagma Khattak
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run

Purpose of the study: This study investigates Short-run, Long-run, and Casual relationships in the Asian Developed and Emerging stock market indices for the period of 19 years weekly data of stock market indices of Asian Developed and Emerging Markets which are Japan (Nikkei 225), South Korea (KOSPI), Pakistan (KSE 100), China (SSE Composite), Sri Lanka (ASPI), India (BSE 200) and Malaysia (KLSE composite) from January 2001 to December 2019. Methodology: To analyze long-run and short-run relationships among the Asian developed and emerging stock markets, this study practices Descriptive Statistics, Correlation Matrix, Unit Root Test, Johansen Co-Integration Test, Vector Error Correction Model, Granger Causality test, Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Main findings: By employing the ADF and P.P. tests, the results specify that the entire variables' data are non-stationary and stationary in exact order, which is 1st difference. The Johnson Co-integration test found one cointegration relationship, where the results are consistent with Granger causality, Variance Decomposition, and Impulse Response Function (IRF). Application of the study: As the current research has focused on finding out the comovements in the Asian developed and emerging markets. So, the applications are that the survey found short-run and long-run relationships in these countries' stock markets. The study's originality: The current study has selected seven Asian developed and emerging stock markets and weekly updated time series data to investigate short-term and long-term linkages. So, this study found long-run comovements in these stock indices, which contributes to the literature. In addition, these stock markets have limited diversification benefits for international investors, while short-term diversification benefits may exist.

Impact of terrorism on stock markets across the world and stock returns

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 793-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laila Memdani ◽  
Guruprasad Shenoy
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Performance Measure ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Global Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Affected Country

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study the following: short-run and long-run associations between the terror-affected country’s stock market index and other global countries’ equity indices and gold; the volatility of stock market indices when one of the countries is affected by a terrorist attack; and the linkages between terrorism and the returns in the selected stock markets. Design/methodology/approach To study the impact of the Taj attack on other global indices, the authors selected top five countries’ stock market indices, namely, FTSE, DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC and DAX. The short-run and long-run associations are also compared with gold. The authors used the autoregressive distributed lag model, LM test and bounds test for analyzing the short-run and long-run impact; ARCH family models to study the volatility impact; and the MAR model to study the impact on returns. Findings The authors found that all the global indices had a short-run association with the terror-affected country’s benchmark index, i.e. BSE. Gold moved as expected, with it having a short-run impact on the terror-affected country. All the global indices except DJI have volatility of share price movement either positively or negatively. As the benchmark of the terror-affected country fell, NIKKEI, HSI, IXIC, DAX and CAC also fell; that is, it had a positive influence on the terror-affected country’s index. Post the Mumbai attacks, DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC, DAX, BSE and CAC performed well in performance measure returns compared with the pre-attack period. Whereas, FTSE and GOLD performed well in performance measure returns in the pre-attack period compared with the post-attack period. GOLD proved that it is the best avenue to invest in, as it has only a short-term association with the terror-affected country’s index. Research limitations/implications The authors studied the short-run and long-run associations with only five countries’ benchmark indices. Practical implications The authors found that all the global indices had long- and short-run associations with the terror-affected country’s benchmark index, i.e. BSE. Global indices like DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC, DAX and FTSE had a short-term association with the affected country’s index. Gold moved as expected, with it having a short-run impact on the terror-affected country. All the global indices except DJI have volatility of share price movement either positively or negatively. As the benchmark of the terror-affected country fell, NIKKEI, HSI, IXIC, DAX, TSX, BVSP and CAC also fell; i.e., it had a positive influence on the terror-affected country’s index. Post the Mumbai attacks, DJI, NIKKEI, SSEC, DAX, BSE and CAC performed well in performance measure returns compared with the pre-attack period. Whereas, FTSE and GOLD performed well in performance measure returns in the pre-attack period compared with the post-attack period. GOLD proved that it is the best avenue to invest in, as it has only a short-term association with the terror-affected country’s index. In all the relationships were mixed with respect to terror attacks, and GOLD took the lead run out of all the associations it had in the 16-year time span from 2000 to 2016. Social implications The research has got an important implication to the investors. It shows that patience is the key, as all the indices had only short-term associations with the BSE. It implies that investors’ returns will be negative in the short run, but if they continue investing, in the long run, the impact of terrorism tapers out and the returns will increase. Originality/value There is a lot of research done on the impact of the US attacks on the stock markets of other countries, but on the impact of the Taj attack in India, there is hardly any research.

Linkages between India and three ASEAN Stock Markets: A Co-integration Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giridhari Singh Rajkumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Relation ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Investment Choices

Today, an investor has an array of investment choices including the opportunities to approach overseas market which were unavailable a few decades ago. In literature, the integration of stock markets has been widely discussed and analyzed. This paper examines the relationship between Indian stock market and the three stock markets of the ASEAN countries viz. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. Using the daily closing prices of the indices over a period of ten years i.e. 2004 to 2014, the study examined the inter-linkages of Indian stock market with the three markets. The Granger-causality and co-integration test were used to check the causal relationship. The study found that there is a significant short-term unidirectional influenced from the Indian stock market to the three ASEAN countries stock markets while no long-term relation (no co-integration) are found between the Indian equity market with that of three ASEAN countries viz. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore equity markets.

Underpricing in Initial Public Offerings: The Indian Evidence

1997 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 17-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
T P Madhusoodanan ◽  
M Thiripalraju
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Public Offerings ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Underpricing in the initial public offerings (IPOs) is a well documented phenomenon in the stock markets. In this paper T P Madhusoodanan and M Thiripalraju analyse the Indian IPO market for the short-term as well as long-term underpricing. They also examine the impact of the issue size on the extent of underpricing in these offerings and the performance of the merchant bankers in pricing these issues. The study indicates that, in general, the underpricing in the Indian IPOs in the shortrun was higher than the experiences of other countries. In the long-run too, Indian offerings have given high returns compared to negative returns reported from other countries. The study also reveals that none of the merchant bankers showed any better pricing capabilities.

scholarly journals Co-integration Analysis Between International Macroeconomic Factors and S&P Sensex Movements

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 3849-3859 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Investment Return ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

The Indian stock market is fizzy and energetic; it has been going through many economic reforms since liberalization Indian economy (LPG) 1991 to till date. The Indian economy follows free market economic system, which enhance the scope of investing into stock market. Hence it prevailing significance of international macroeconomic factor on Indian Sensex movements, the present paper has investigate the long term relation and short term dynamics between international macro economic factors Capital account to Gross Domestic Production ratio (CAPGDPR), Crude oil Return (CRUDEOILR), Foreign Direct Investment return (FDIR), Foreign Institution Investment return (FIIR), Foreign Exchange Reserves growth rate (FOREXRESR) Gold return (GOLDR) Net Current account growth rate i.e (Exports divided by Imports) (NCAR) US Dollar Exchange rate to Indian Rupee returns (USDEXR) to Sensex return (SENSEXR) . The Sensex returns and International macroeconomic factors long term and short term analyzed through time series econometric tools Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test check the stationarity, Johansen co integration for investigate long term relationship, Error correction Model for identify the short term dynamics. It is found that the long term co integration exists between these select international macroeconomic variables. Whereas USDEXR and FOREXRESR leads Sensex R and Sensex R corrects faster towards long run equilibrium. On the other hand CAPGDPR, CRUDEOILR, FDIR, FIIR, GOLDR, NCAR coefficients found the weak form of co movement to adjust for long run equilibrium.

Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Market Sector Indices and Macroeconomic Variables in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-41
Author(s):  
Neeru Gupta ◽  
Ashish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Sector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test

This study investigates the long-term and short-term relationships between selected macroeconomic variables and the selected Indian stock market sector indices over the period of 2010 to 2017. The Johansen Co-integration Test, the Vector error correction model (VECM), is applied to calculate the long-term and short-term relationship between sector indices and macroeconomic variables. It is found that stock prices are exposed to macroeconomic factors, but the level of sensitivity is different in different sectors. Out of five sectors taken in the study, it is found that only the realty sector has long run relationship with macroeconomic variables. Other sectors have no long run relationship with macroeconomic variables. Along with this, it is also found that the Auto index has a significant short-term positive relationship with gold prices and the FMCG sector index has a significant short-term positive relationship with industrial production. The consumer price index and exchange rate have significant short run relationship with realty sector index.

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